Coronavirus

[Dalal.Holdings]

Does anybody have any data on spread on a regional level in Italy by any chance?

 

Italy placed certain parts of Lombardy on lockdown from February 22nd. If those measures were effective, the statistics should show it. It's the ultimate test case, as all other serious containment measures in Italy and the rest of Europe were only taken five days ago at the earliest, so won't show in the new case statistics for five/seven days. If the lockdown was succesful here, it seems more likely it will be succesful elsewhere.

 

We have data from places like China—question is if you can trust it. Based on this data, Locking down Hubei had a major impact on spread throughout the other provinces. Turns out there are actions you can take to nip this in the bud instead of infecting 60% to achieve “herd immunity”.

 

Don’t misunderstand British policy. Britain will lock down. But it’s at an earlier stage than many other countries and locking down too early is potentially catastrophic. Plus, as your flu/Christmas example demonstrates, the problem comes when you *lift* the lockdown. That’s why herd immunity matters.

 

For interest:

 

If you close schools for the period of infection: 2-3 weeks and then restart school, there will be no spike in infections because the disease will have run its course and those kids will be immune and not bring it back to school with them. That's what happened with Hubei lockdown as well--contain an area for enough time for already infected individuals to have disease run its course and not spread it to uninfected people. Furthermore, slowing spread over time prevents healthcare/crit care resources from being strained beyond capacity which has been stated on this thread many many many times by many individuals (and Italy is a living example of this). Taking action early is better than taking it later when things spiral out of control...exponential growth yada yada.

 

I prefer this tweet on British policy:

[Cigarbutt]

^The chart that shows the flattening effect with containment measures has become dogma but it may be helpful to question underlying assumptions.

-What if this virus (or others) become part of our global community with recurrent patterns?

The virus is benign in most, which significantly raises the possibility.

-On all the versions of the graphs, it is assumed that the area under the curve is smaller (much smaller) with the suggested 'efforts' and that's an unsupported assumption to a large extent in this specific case but will the area be smaller with various containment measures?

-How successful have we been with influenza?

Death rates have come down and various medical measures (medications, vaccines etc) helped but most of the improvement in mortality that came over time (ie compared to the Spanish flu peak) was due to improved living conditions, antibiotics (to deal with deadly bacterial superinfection, especially in compromised hosts) and the politically incorrect concept of "herd immunity".

 

Erring on the side of caution is likely the way to go but that propensity should not close all doors (inputs to decision making). Britain's approach is not irrational. It is a different version of containment that is more anthropological (more "take it on the chin") than epidemiological.

 

Disclosure because the following appears emotionally detached, harsh and mean: I was very close to my parents before they died and we're doing the same and more with her parents.

From an evolutionary standpoint, our population contains now a large portion of older and weaker individuals with a high level of co-morbidities, including many reversible environmentally-driven conditions. Nature can be wrong and we've done well with some unwarranted side effects but there is an underlying rationale. And the over-riding long-term feature is the survival of the species.

 

For those above asking for some statistics (% disease severity, level of care needed etc), the following may be useful:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

^The chart that shows the flattening effect with containment measures has become dogma but it may be helpful to question underlying assumptions.

 

Not too many assumptions, just basic supply/demand (of critical care resources) principle with that chart. If everyone went to their bank to take out all their money right now, the bank would fail. Withdraw money gradually over time, no problem.

 

Like I said, there are real live examples of this occurring right now (Italy), no dogma required. To dismiss the advantage of precaution is reckless. Furthermore, if there are future positive black swans (treatment/vaccine development), then delaying infections out into the future is much much better.

 

The British and American responses are more reactive than proactive and you will see the consequence of that over many months.

 

Precautionary principle is not just a nerdy term for people who read books.

[Guest Schwab711]

 

British response seems rational to me. If you shut schools kids (carriers) go to grandparents (vulnerable) which is dumb. And if you lockdown too early people get bored and you create a worse issue later. We are in uncharted waters, and a lot depends on behavioural “science” which is far less precise than medical science, so who knows what’s right, but at this point I don’t have an issue with Britain’s approach.

 

What does annoy me is certain elements of the press stoking panic because it’s good for their Twitter reputations. But then we have long said that countryside is the act of killing Piers Morgan.

 

Closing schools has already been shown to drastically reduce the spread of viruses like influenza. Any parent with young kids know that school/daycar is where infections spread from one child to another and then that illness is introduced to a new household. People who don’t use daycare don’t have that problem until school starts. This stuff has been proven over and over again in medical literature. Nothing rational about refusing to close schools.

 

Relying on behavioral economics over much harder science is sure to prove unwise.

 

Let’s see. This thing seems rare to me in how it doesn’t harm kids as much as the elderly. I think the risk is not how many get it - it is going to spread no matter what we do - but limiting intra-family interactions to protect the elderly. But that’s it from me. If you disagree I’m not going to argue, because I don’t hold my views as strongly as you clearly do. Only time will tell.

 

We don't need beliefs. We know the best ways to manage pandemics like this. It's just economically costly. The alternative will severely hurt older populations (50+ with 70+ being worst hit). It's all controllable if you are willing to listen to others (WHO, CDC, states, ect) and look at the tea leaves based on areas that didn't react.

 

Coronavirus will be 20x to 200x more deadly than seasonal flu, depending on your age. If we spread out the disease, they'll be enough medical equipment and personnel to lower that some. If we don't, it will increase. This will be the Spanish flu as it stands today, with the chance of being worse. The fact that many didn't believes it was strong until it was at our door is the type of thing that will make this worse. Just listen to people (not me, authorities that aren't Trump) and prepare.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

British response seems rational to me. If you shut schools kids (carriers) go to grandparents (vulnerable) which is dumb. And if you lockdown too early people get bored and you create a worse issue later. We are in uncharted waters, and a lot depends on behavioural “science” which is far less precise than medical science, so who knows what’s right, but at this point I don’t have an issue with Britain’s approach.

 

What does annoy me is certain elements of the press stoking panic because it’s good for their Twitter reputations. But then we have long said that countryside is the act of killing Piers Morgan.

 

Closing schools has already been shown to drastically reduce the spread of viruses like influenza. Any parent with young kids know that school/daycar is where infections spread from one child to another and then that illness is introduced to a new household. People who don’t use daycare don’t have that problem until school starts. This stuff has been proven over and over again in medical literature. Nothing rational about refusing to close schools.

 

Relying on behavioral economics over much harder science is sure to prove unwise.

 

Let’s see. This thing seems rare to me in how it doesn’t harm kids as much as the elderly. I think the risk is not how many get it - it is going to spread no matter what we do - but limiting intra-family interactions to protect the elderly. But that’s it from me. If you disagree I’m not going to argue, because I don’t hold my views as strongly as you clearly do. Only time will tell.

 

We don't need beliefs. We know the best ways to manage pandemics like this. It's just economically costly.

 

Ironically, the economic costs of acting earlier will be <<< delaying action to later. This crisis will be much more expensive for Italy than South Korea/Taiwan/Singapore.

 

"An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure"

 

But what do I know, I just chant dumb sayings from dead wise men

[Jurgis]

I prefer this tweet on British policy:

 

Fact.

[Jurgis]

For those above asking for some statistics (% disease severity, level of care needed etc), the following may be useful:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

 

This one is very comprehensive.

Unlike the others it also shows number of deaths plot, which is unfortunately also exponential so far.

[Viking]

Lots we still do not know... What do we do with workers who are over 60 (in the high risk group)?

 

The companies that feed America brace for labor shortages and worry about restocking stores as coronavirus pandemic intensifies

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/13/food-supply-shortage-coronavirus/

 

The companies that feed America and provide basic staples are bracing for labor shortages as the novel coronavirus pandemic intensifies, which could leave them without enough workers to manufacture, deliver and unpack groceries in stores in the coming months.

 

As the virus spreads, supermarkets and distribution facilities face a difficult choice: how to keep shelves stocked with essentials while keeping their workers safe.

 

Already, some chains are rationing products as shelves empty out of pasta, rice and frozen vegetables and anxious customers wait in long lines for toilet paper and bottled water — in scenes similar to those seen before a hurricane, yet this time unfolding on a national scale.

 

 

[Liberty]

Dr. Peter Attia just released a special episode on COVID-19:

 

https://peterattiamd.com/peterhotez/

 

Probably a must-listen.

[Viking]

So with all the travel bans being implemented does this essentially mean the world is going to lock down? Does this mean global travellers are essentially stuck in their current country for the duration of the travel ban?

 

Countries that do not get on board with a ban are???

 

We seem to be getting closer to a tipping out as this virus impacts Europe and the US. The speed of the lock down is unprecedented. And the crazy thing is thing is we are still in the early innings. It’s like a freight train, building up speed.

 

Exclusive: U.S. to add Britain, Ireland to European travel ban - airline, U.S. officials

- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-u-add-britain-ireland-161415994.html

[StubbleJumper]

The Province of Quebec has just requested all citizens aged 70 or higher to self-isolate until further notice:

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/6677307/quebec-coronavirus-march14/

 

 

At least one jurisdiction is focused on the correct group.

 

 

SJ

[jeffsreng]

FYI:

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

FYI:

 

 

So now estimating 1-1.5 years for a vaccine (the administration and more sophisticated people were saying weeks to months recently). Strange. I thought all the fat margins we'd been handing to pharma for decades would have resulted in tremendous amount of R&D infrastructure to handle something like this more rapidly. Instead, they've spent it on inversion mergers and patent defense litigation.

 

It's ok. I am sure the 1-1.5 years is a conservative/pessimistic scenario. After all, look at what a good job we've done with rolling out testing in this country. We can't even match a recently "emerging economy" like S Korea.

[StubbleJumper]

FYI:

 

 

So now estimating 1-1.5 years for a vaccine (the administration and more sophisticated people were saying weeks to months recently). Strange. I thought all the fat margins we'd been handing to pharma for decades would have resulted in tremendous amount of R&D infrastructure to handle something like this more rapidly. Instead, they've spent it on inversion mergers and patent defense litigation.

 

It's ok. I am sure the 1-1.5 years is a conservative/pessimistic scenario. After all, look at what a good job we've done with rolling out testing in this country. We can't even match a recently "emerging economy" like S Korea.

 

 

That's pretty consistent with the time estimates that were the subject of speculation when this was only in China.  We will probably have herd immunity before vaccine immunity.  Once you have 40% or 50% of people who have had this, the spread slows pretty drastically.

 

 

SJ

[Viking]

Ok, this is getting real in Europe. First Italy, now Spain Is in complete lockdown. Next country?

 

How long before this is the measure we see in the US? Washington State likely within the week? Sounds like Trump is going to hit Washington State with a travel ban. Close the state borders with national guard troops?

 

This sounds like National Enquirer material...

 

Breaking: Spain announces nationwide lockdown as coronavirus cases surge

 

The decision, announced by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in a televised address Saturday, means residents will only be permitted to leave their homes for essential reasons, including for medical appointments or to buy food. All events including religious services will be halted, and schools and universities closed, he said. The measures will remain in place for a 15 day period but could be extended. The announcement comes as Spain emerges as a new hot spot of the global coronavirus pandemic.

[StevieV]

FYI:

 

 

So now estimating 1-1.5 years for a vaccine (the administration and more sophisticated people were saying weeks to months recently). Strange. I thought all the fat margins we'd been handing to pharma for decades would have resulted in tremendous amount of R&D infrastructure to handle something like this more rapidly. Instead, they've spent it on inversion mergers and patent defense litigation.

 

How long is a life saving vaccine supposed to take?  How long did it take to develop a polio vaccine?  How much of the 12-18 months is safety testing rather than development?

 

If a company is able to develop a life saving vaccine against this in 12-18 months, that would seem to be a miracle of modern medicine, not a failure.

[jeffsreng]

I hope history doesn't repeat or get worse:

 

 

[Viking]

Holy shit. King Donald is going nuclear. If you do not do what he wants, you are going to be replaced with a yes man. Strong message to send to public service in a timeof crisis. Financial markets are going to have a shit fit if he demotes/fires Powell right now.

 

But we know Trumps play book. He KNOWS what needs to be done. And if a public official does not do what Trump wants they are gone. There will be no ‘independence’ moving forward.

 

The virus has not even hit the US yet (in numbers). If he starts doing these sorts of things when times are good (trust me times are good right now) just imagine what he is going to do when times actually start to get bad?

 

Yes, i know this is all priced in to stocks... (sarcasm). The more desperate Trump gets the more financial markets are going to sell off.

 

Trump says he has the right to dismiss or demote Fed Chairman Powell

- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-he-has-the-right-to-dismiss-or-demote-fed-chairman-powell-2020-03-14

 

[Guest]

Holy shit. King Donald is going nuclear. If you do not do what he wants, you are going to be replaced with a yes man. Strong message to send to public service in a timeof crisis. Financial markets are going to have a shit fit if he demotes/fires Powell right now.

 

But we know Trumps play book. He KNOWS what needs to be done. And if a public official does not do what Trump wants they are gone. There will be no ‘independence’ moving forward.

 

The virus has not even hit the US yet (in numbers). If he starts doing these sorts of things when times are good (trust me times are good right now) just imagine what he is going to do when times actually start to get bad?

 

Yes, i know this is all priced in to stocks... (sarcasm). The more desperate Trump gets the more financial markets are going to sell off.

 

Trump says he has the right to dismiss or demote Fed Chairman Powell

- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-he-has-the-right-to-dismiss-or-demote-fed-chairman-powell-2020-03-14

 

It would be funny (in a sad way) if Trump got rid of Powell and put someone there who would give him negative rates...and that might just be enough to spiral the world into something possibly worse than 2008.

[John Hjorth]

Ok, this is getting real in Europe. First Italy, now Spain Is in complete lockdown. Next country?

 

... Close the state borders with national guard troops?

 

Viking,

 

You bet it's real. Denmark was next [in the meaning, it has already happened].

 

Denmark is almost shut down totally right now. It's nearly impossible for me to describe what's being going on here over the last one or two weeks [well, that is : without totally spamming this topic].

 

The best place to look to get a feeling of how things have evolved over the last couple of weeks here is to actually look at the WHO sit reports - the latest, and then also grab the one a week before that. [Denmark has been climbing the list in the section for European countries for about every day in the last week with a "good clip" [ : - / ]].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The Danish government has been ramping up extremely agressive on countermeasures within the last few days - so agressive, that it has been almost breathtaking.

[tede02]

Probability of recession has to be near 100% right now. Severity of it is probably the real question. One area of weakness I'll be watching for is the highly indebted companies that need to refi debt. Maybe this is the shock that starts the unwind of the huge corporate debt buildup that so many have been warning about for several years.

[Viking]

Ok, this is getting real in Europe. First Italy, now Spain Is in complete lockdown. Next country?

 

... Close the state borders with national guard troops?

 

Viking,

 

You bet it's real. Denmark was next [in the meaning, it has already happened].

 

Denmark is almost shut down totally right now. It's nearly impossible for me to describe what's being going on here over the last one or two weeks [well, that is : without totally spamming this topic].

 

The best place to look to get a feeling of how things have evolved over the last couple of weeks here is to actually look at the WHO sit reports - the latest, and then also grab the one a week before that. [Denmark has been climbing the list in the section for European countries for about every day in the last week with a "good clip" [ : - / ]].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The Danish government has been ramping up extremely agressive on countermeasures within the last few days - so agressive, that it has been almost breathtaking.

 

John, yes, i saw what was happening in Denmark the past week and thought of you :-). The speed of everything is surprising me. Hope all is well :-)

[Viking]

Holy shit. King Donald is going nuclear. If you do not do what he wants, you are going to be replaced with a yes man. Strong message to send to public service in a timeof crisis. Financial markets are going to have a shit fit if he demotes/fires Powell right now.

 

But we know Trumps play book. He KNOWS what needs to be done. And if a public official does not do what Trump wants they are gone. There will be no ‘independence’ moving forward.

 

The virus has not even hit the US yet (in numbers). If he starts doing these sorts of things when times are good (trust me times are good right now) just imagine what he is going to do when times actually start to get bad?

 

Yes, i know this is all priced in to stocks... (sarcasm). The more desperate Trump gets the more financial markets are going to sell off.

 

Trump says he has the right to dismiss or demote Fed Chairman Powell

- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-he-has-the-right-to-dismiss-or-demote-fed-chairman-powell-2020-03-14

 

It would be funny (in a sad way) if Trump got rid of Powell and put someone there who would give him negative rates...and that might just be enough to spiral the world into something possibly worse than 2008.

 

Where this really gets wicked are the secondary effects and the tail risks. What if the US policy responses are the wrong ones? The more Trump messes up the worse he makes the situation - a classic negative feedback loop.

 

The real question: what is currently stopping Trump from doing really destructive things? Democratic House is not enough. Will the Republican Senate stand up to Trump? Not so far...

 

The stock market will figure this out at some point and discount it...

[Dalal.Holdings]

Another useless chart. 74.4k confirmed cases outside China right now. Within 24h, cases outside China will exceed cases inside China...

 

Growing about 15-20% a day...(doubling time is ~every 4 days)

[minten]

So now estimating 1-1.5 years for a vaccine

 

as I understand it, there should be a treatment with antibodies available within a number of months (so not now, but probably in time for the fall-season).  so not yet a vaccine, but a way to treat people with antibodies who already got it.  not sure why development time for this would be faster, perhaps less safety regulations?