rogermunibond Posted March 10 Posted March 10 2 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Depending on source, there is still approx 6.9Mb/d of shut in production, net of this. The US can threaten Kharg Island, Iran can threaten that pipeline ... a draw. Ballistic missiles are very good at stationary targets, and at the practical level .... pipelines are very difficult to continuously protect along their entire length. $5/gallon gasoline is probably going to be here for a while. SD $4+ at least through October is what the gasoline futures curve is pricing in.
Spekulatius Posted March 10 Posted March 10 On 3/9/2026 at 12:39 PM, Dalal.Holdings said: A lot of ships "disappearing" (are they reappearing?) near the Strait... Yes, the ships rates traveling through the straight will turn off their transponders for obvious reasons.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 10 Posted March 10 8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Yes, the ships rates traveling through the straight will turn off their transponders for obvious reasons. With Iranian navy mostly sunk and the entire world (excluding Russia) wanting the Strait to remain open, I have a hard time seeing how Iran keeps it closed.
Stuart D Posted March 11 Posted March 11 Those mines are an issue though. Cheap to plant, expensive to remove?
Gregmal Posted March 11 Posted March 11 Just now, Stuart D said: Those mines are an issue though. Cheap to plant, expensive to remove? That’s why CODA be ripping. In other news. The rugs pulls in energy are always spectacular. This one didn’t disappoint.
Blake Hampton Posted March 11 Posted March 11 (edited) Oil is the most important and valuable globally traded commodity on Earth. It is a derivative to the cost of essentially everything. Because of this, governments generally have an enormous incentive towards keeping the price of oil low; it is simply too important not to. When the price of gold jumps to more than $5,000 an ounce, a few people make some money, a few others see it as a bad omen, and the vast majority go on uncaring. When the price of oil jumps above $100 a barrel however, the entire world starts to panic. Oil is of immense fundamental value to society. For an investor, this is both its greatest strength as well as its primary weakness. Edited March 11 by Blake Hampton
Sweet Posted March 11 Posted March 11 4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said: Oil is the most important and valuable globally traded commodity on Earth. It is a derivative to the cost of essentially everything. Because of this, governments generally have an enormous incentive towards keeping the price of oil low; it is simply too important not to. When the price of gold jumps to more than $5,000 an ounce, a few people make some money, a few others see it as a bad omen, and the vast majority go on uncaring. When the price of oil jumps above $100 a barrel however, the entire world starts to panic. Oil is of immense fundamental value to society. For an investor, this is both its greatest strength as well as its primary weakness. This is an investment board filled with guys that know what they are doing. I don’t mean this to be disrespectful, but what’s the purpose of posting something so obvious?
SharperDingaan Posted March 11 Posted March 11 3 hours ago, Sweet said: This is an investment board filled with guys that know what they are doing. I don’t mean this to be disrespectful, but what’s the purpose of posting something so obvious? Wise men recognise that most others do not have the same experience, expertise, and risk tolerance that they have; markets move on how the 'majority' see the opportunity, not the better informed. That hubris can kill you For many, it is not so obvious that the price of oil through November; will be driven primarily by the US price of gasoline per gallon, and the US indices hitting new records .... agreeing or not is irrelevant. Joe six pack who recognises that could do very well; Joe six pack who doesn't ... remains poor. Doesn't matter much now, but it could be very different come Christmas. You acted, your friend didn't .... he/she is being forced to the food-bank, you've paid all your debts off and have something in the bank as well. Awkward SD
yesman182 Posted March 11 Posted March 11 Why is WCS tanking? down 13% and WTI is flat? Because the east/west pipeline is flowing at capacity?
rogermunibond Posted March 11 Posted March 11 16 minutes ago, yesman182 said: Why is WCS tanking? down 13% and WTI is flat? Because the east/west pipeline is flowing at capacity? Japan SPR release affects Canadian oil deliveries to Asia.
SharperDingaan Posted March 11 Posted March 11 1 hour ago, yesman182 said: Why is WCS tanking? down 13% and WTI is flat? Because the east/west pipeline is flowing at capacity? 9-hour delay, and discussions around tying in additional egress. What would have been tied in during maintenance, now has to be done via a temporary curtailment. Not an issue. SD
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 12 Posted March 12 Today Iranians attacked a Thai vessel. Looks like a Chinese vessel was close. What happens if a Chinese vessel takes a hit from a rogue Iranian terrorist? These folks should never have access to Uranium
Blake Hampton Posted March 12 Posted March 12 (edited) On 3/11/2026 at 3:16 AM, Sweet said: This is an investment board filled with guys that know what they are doing. I don’t mean this to be disrespectful, but what’s the purpose of posting something so obvious? "There is an old two-part rule that often works wonders in business, science, and elsewhere: 1. Take a simple, basic idea and 2. Take it very seriously." - Charlie Munger It amazes me just how often people do make simple mistakes. Just because someone is educated, or intelligent, or in a powerful position, or anything, doesn't mean they're exempt from making them. It is simply part of being human. Edited March 12 by Blake Hampton
Blake Hampton Posted March 12 Posted March 12 A lot of the world's greatest mistakes often only require simple solutions. So why do we still make them?
Castanza Posted March 12 Posted March 12 @Blake Hampton We reiterate....what are you positions and what are your returns.....If you're going to talk the talk, let's see if you walk the walk...
whiskybravo Posted March 12 Posted March 12 ExxonMobil, the primary descendant of John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil, is officially moving its legal domicile from New Jersey to Texas in 2026. While the company's physical headquarters moved to Texas decades ago, this final step severs its last formal legal tie to its 19th-century origins. Leadership cited the need to protect the company from frivolous shareholder lawsuits and abuse. Texas recently established a specialized Business Court designed to resolve complex corporate disputes more efficiently. Approximately 75% of ExxonMobil's U.S. workforce is already based in Texas. By moving the legal domicile to Texas, the company is finally retiring the 144-year-old New Jersey charter that once served as the legal anchor for Rockefeller's entire global trust.
Sweet Posted March 12 Posted March 12 (edited) Maybe Blake is right after all: That comment made me laugh. Edited March 12 by Sweet
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 12 Posted March 12 I turned bullish energy and bought an oil & gas stock today. It wasn't EQNR, but I was close to buying that one--set to thrive off Europe's asininity, but I am worried the Europeans will force Norway to windfall tax it (even though Norway already taxes it at 78%).
Mephistopheles Posted March 12 Posted March 12 31 minutes ago, Sweet said: Maybe Blake is right after all: That comment made me laugh. I was an undergrad in finance during the 07-08 oil bull market. Crude had gone up to $140/barrel. I remember my Working Capital Management professor, during one of his rambling monologues, say to us: "The price of oil doubled in 6 months, are we really to believe that oil demand has doubled in 6 months?" For this and many reasons, I regret majoring in finance to this day.
yesman182 Posted March 13 Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said: I turned bullish energy and bought an oil & gas stock today. It wasn't EQNR, but I was close to buying that one--set to thrive off Europe's asininity, but I am worried the Europeans will force Norway to windfall tax it (even though Norway already taxes it at 78%). seems like you were rather bearish earlier in the year. Thanks for posting that you invested. When you turned bullish oil and gas did you turn bearish on something else?
Sweet Posted March 13 Posted March 13 7 hours ago, Mephistopheles said: I was an undergrad in finance during the 07-08 oil bull market. Crude had gone up to $140/barrel. I remember my Working Capital Management professor, during one of his rambling monologues, say to us: "The price of oil doubled in 6 months, are we really to believe that oil demand has doubled in 6 months?" For this and many reasons, I regret majoring in finance to this day. I’d have asked for a refund right there and then
SharperDingaan Posted March 13 Posted March 13 (edited) Two articles worth keeping in mind: Alberta (and BC/Saskatchewan) producers are going to be coining it. While the love will be spread around, most of the production benefit will go to the heavy oil and gas producers; Asia bound Russian cargo's sold to Europe at a premium, and swapped for Canadian West Coast cargos to save on the transport costs. “$90 a barrel over the course of the year would be sufficient to wipe out, and probably turn into a surplus, what was going to be a $10-billion deficit,” Tyler Meredith, former economic adviser to Canada’s prime minister, said. Even the planned OECD release by members of the International Energy Agency is unlikely to reverse the price trend, Meredith noted, and he is not alone. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Canadian-Crude-Cashes-In-on-War-Premium.html Orange Boy may hate them ... but windmills, wave turbines, etc, exist so as to reduce an importers dependence upon crude. That initial higher cost is an insurance premium ... that disappears as the number of units is scaled up. "The Strait of Hormuz crisis did not create Europe’s energy vulnerability. It merely reminded us that it exists. If the current Hormuz disruption proves anything, it is that the argument was never primarily about climate. It was always about security." https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/North-Sea-Drilling-Wont-Protect-Europe-from-Global-Price-Shocks.html Prices are not going down anytime soon, and windmills are not going away. Not what many are trying to sell SD Edited March 14 by SharperDingaan
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