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james22

By james22
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Spekulatius
Spekulatius

I guess it may be time for another flush: I do not think the Saudi's will play this over again like in 2015, as it cost them dearly.

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gfp Grand Master

gfp

Posted
Posted

It seems like out of all the supposed "trump trades" on that old thread - Natural Gas going up in price is the only one that really worked.  

Pelagic Rising Star

Pelagic

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Posted
29 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

Hard to believe we have such a competent energy secretary.  Energy realism
 

https://open.substack.com/pub/robertbryce/p/chris-wright-we-need-more-energy?r=9iue0&utm_medium=ios

Really liked this line.

Quote

This lifestyle requires an average of 13 barrels of oil per person per year. What about the other seven billion people? They want what we have. The other seven billion people, on average, consume only three barrels of oil per person per year versus our 13. Africans average less than one barrel.

It's a point made often by energy companies regarding global demand, I think Exxon had a version of it in their annual report. And sure maybe we make major efficiency gains and the developed world brings that down 10-20%, but the delta between the developed world and undeveloped is still massive and it's going to close a lot faster than most people expect.

Ulti Community Regular

Ulti

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Posted

“Back in our own country, over 20% of Americans struggle to pay their energy bills and roughly 10% have received the utility disconnection notice in the last 12 months. Think about that for a moment. The last administration recklessly pursued policies that were certain to drive up electricity prices, “

 

While he mentioned part of the price of energy going up is the rapid advancement of AI data centers…… the cost of extra energy consumption being borne by the states residents ( at least in the state of Georgia even with the new very expensive and way over budget nuclear power plant). Legislation has yet passed the republican house and senate in Ga as well as no help from the all republican members of the state PSC.

 

“We have outsourced far too much manufacturing and our allies in Europe have gone much further in this destructive direction”

 

yea we have and this was driven for many years by corporations corporate profits and. cheaper goods for the consumer .(. Not a leftist or rightist policy per say)

 

overall I agree a more rational energy policy … no more windmill giveaways like in Cape Cod where there’s been an environmental crisis 

from failure 

https://www.capecodtimes.com/story/news/environment/2024/07/24/nantucket-select-board-turbine-blade-failure-vineyard-wind-cape-cod-marthas-vineyard-offshore-wind/74506581007/

 

Ulti Community Regular

Ulti

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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trevor-rose-podcast/id1493491566?i=1000699015560
 

This episode we are joined by Mr. Arjun Murti - Partner at Veriten LLC and a Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus. 
Mr. Murti has spent over 30 years on Wall Street as a sell-side equity research analyst, buy-side investor, advisor and board member covering the global energy sector. 
Mr. Murti previously served as a Partner at Goldman Sachs from 2006 to 2014. Prior to becoming Partner, he served as Managing Director from 2003 to 2006 and as Vice President from 1999 to 
 

 

Phoenix01 Enthusiast

Phoenix01

Posted
Posted

https://worldoil.com/news/2025/3/13/ceraweek-2025-how-exxonmobil-is-applying-technology-to-maximize-value-in-the-permian-basin/

 

Of the “10–13 layers [of targeted oil resources], we’re probably developing only seven to eight of those today.”  He added that this results in resource recovery of only about 6-8%, with a great deal of undrilled resources yet to be fully unlocked.

 

Seems like 70% of the permian layers have been exploited.  Operators are developing new technology to go after the rest.  It will be interesting to see how the permian reacts output reacts to oil prices.

SharperDingaan Veteran

SharperDingaan

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Posted (edited)

Keep in mind that targeted layers are only developed if they are economic at the current forecast prices. Prices rise, or technology lowers cost, and those other layers will be developed. Prices fall ... and production from the highest cost existing layers risks getting shut in. At too high a gas/water cut, the economics fail .. and production from the highest cost existing layer gets shut in.

 

Drill baby drill to raise production and lower prices; simply shuts in higher cost permian oil production and raises the cost of natural gas as total supply shrinks. The US could also comfortably draw down on/offshore production for at least a decade without any need to add new oil reservoirs. 

 

Trump needs to both refill the SPR, and rehabilitate it. Get OPEC to hold less off the market to drive price down, and as much as possible .... have the US buy as much sanctioned Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude as it can. End the war in Ukraine ...  and we'll take your crude. End your support for Hamas and Hezbollah .... and we'll take your crude. The majors controlling the drilling budgets, and US drilling focused on 'manufacturing' and field productivity.

 

Trump the isolationist, also needs new and high-capacity state-of-the-art US refining capacity at eastern tidewater; expensive, and the US economy don't work with no gas. To do it requires a reliable high volume of heavy crude to blend with US light; hence the push to get Keystone 2.0 built. Before tariffs there might have been the goodwill to get it built ... today additional pipe will go west/east versus south .. and the US will either pay world price or go without. Happy to sell it to you, and compete against Mexican/Venezuelan supply, but it ain't gonna be done the 'old way' anymore.  

 

If you think the US is also financially stretched .... the SPR refill and refinery builds will require external capital. Lot of it will be money-laundered funds, with strings attached.

 

SD

 

 

 

      

Edited by SharperDingaan
SharperDingaan Veteran

SharperDingaan

Posted
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The US will be buying at a discount; but it really means an ongoing US fleet presence in the area, and SA continuing to play ball by holding oil prices down. Of course ... it is also in the OPEC interest to create  a risk-on premium that forces the price to rise, and weapons manufacturers to supply the hardware ....

 

SD

    

wondering Enthusiast

wondering

Posted
Posted

Great discussion on Canadian oil companies. Named mentioned Strathcona, MEG, Cenovus, Greenlight Resources, Baytex, and even Fairfax.  Cole speaks highly of Adam Waterous.

buylowersellhigh Enthusiast

buylowersellhigh

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, wondering said:

Great discussion on Canadian oil companies. Named mentioned Strathcona, MEG, Cenovus, Greenlight Resources, Baytex, and even Fairfax.  Cole speaks highly of Adam Waterous.

Don’t see the item u posted regarding this.

Eng12345 Rising Star

Eng12345

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, buylowersellhigh said:

Don’t see the item u posted regarding this.

I think the forum is having difficulty with youtube embeds @Parsad

 

I just see a black box and also see it on other threads. 

Pelagic Rising Star

Pelagic

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Dallas Fed Survey of oil and gas industry comments

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2501#tab-comments

 

https://x.com/MattZeitlin/status/1904963020637299008

  • The administration's chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. "Drill, baby, drill" is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal. We want more stability.

Whoever this was wasn't holding back.

 

Interesting that so many see $50 oil as a possibility without really a clear catalyst as to how that occurs. Both Russia and Iran are still exporting oil, I guess maybe they're thinking in terms of OPEC adding barrels back to the market or a broad economic slowdown.

 

Also interesting how quickly they see US production falling off, 1M bbl/d within a few quarters, at $50 oil.

SharperDingaan Veteran

SharperDingaan

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Pelagic said:
  • The administration's chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. "Drill, baby, drill" is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal. We want more stability.

Whoever this was wasn't holding back.

 

Interesting that so many see $50 oil as a possibility without really a clear catalyst as to how that occurs. Both Russia and Iran are still exporting oil, I guess maybe they're thinking in terms of OPEC adding barrels back to the market or a broad economic slowdown.

 

Also interesting how quickly they see US production falling off, 1M bbl/d within a few quarters, at $50 oil.

 

$50 oil is because tariffs are reducing trade, and it takes less oil to make less goods. Lower demand translating into lower prices.

 

SD

 

SharperDingaan Veteran

SharperDingaan

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Libs said:

Something big is brewing. The pressure on Iran looks to be going up, and I don't see it in oil prices yet. 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/us-appears-to-be-significantly-increasing-its-military-presence-in-the-middle-east-13336089

 

War premium is already in the price, and why WTI has been pushing towards USD 70.

 

Whatever Iran loses the rest of OPEC can easily replace, and pretty much immediately. It only gets interesting if Iran successfully rains heavy rockets on Saudi oil facilities, with enough damage to put them out for months; hence the US buildup.

 

SD

 

Edited by SharperDingaan
Phoenix01 Enthusiast

Phoenix01

Posted
Posted

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/opec-advance-oil-output-hike-plan-with-bigger-may-boost-2025-04-03/

LONDON/MOSCOW, April 3 (Reuters) - Eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly agreed on Thursday to advance their plan to phase out oil output cuts by increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, a decision that prompted oil prices to extend earlier sharp losses.

Oil, which was already down over 4% on U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of tariffs on trading partners, extended declines after OPEC updated its plans in a statement, with Brent crude dropping over 6% to below $70 a barrel.

 

It is interesting to see that the Trump admin has some leverage over OPEC+.

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