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Next Berkshire acquisition speculation


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Its a great family business, not sure why the family would want to sell anytime soon but you never know.  I think they are at least to 580 locations now.  My wife's family lives in Virginia or I wouldn't even be aware of them.

 

(pilot flying J is over 750 locations now - time marches on)

 

Sheetz gas station chain.

 

- People love Sheetz food.

- Tesla Charging stations. Not unique but their atmosphere and food are arguably best in class giving them some advantage over competition to entice people to charge there. 

- 530ish locations (Flying J has 650ish)

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  • 2 weeks later...

If it wasn't for the Murdoch family who owns 1/3 of the voting shares, I think Fox Corp could be an ideal M&A target. 20 bUSD market cap atm, very strong media franchise generating +30% ROIC, not that exposed to cord cutting due to focus on live sports and news, and they have a very promising broadcast segment where they more or less own all comedy cartoon entertainment (family guy, American dad, futurama, simpsons, bobs burger)

 

Trading at a conservative multiple right now and actually BRK could buy Fox and keep mgmt. like they always do, and the Murdochs could keep a 10% stake or similar

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If it wasn't for the Murdoch family who owns 1/3 of the voting shares, I think Fox Corp could be an ideal M&A target. 20 bUSD market cap atm, very strong media franchise generating +30% ROIC, not that exposed to cord cutting due to focus on live sports and news, and they have a very promising broadcast segment where they more or less own all comedy cartoon entertainment (family guy, American dad, futurama, simpsons, bobs burger)

 

Trading at a conservative multiple right now and actually BRK could buy Fox and keep mgmt. like they always do, and the Murdochs could keep a 10% stake or similar

 

LOL

 

edit: I probably deserve a big horse laugh at some of my suggestions too.

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If it wasn't for the Murdoch family who owns 1/3 of the voting shares, I think Fox Corp could be an ideal M&A target. 20 bUSD market cap atm, very strong media franchise generating +30% ROIC, not that exposed to cord cutting due to focus on live sports and news, and they have a very promising broadcast segment where they more or less own all comedy cartoon entertainment (family guy, American dad, futurama, simpsons, bobs burger)

 

Trading at a conservative multiple right now and actually BRK could buy Fox and keep mgmt. like they always do, and the Murdochs could keep a 10% stake or similar

 

I like FOX ( as a business, content is another matter), but don’t think that BRK want to be seen controlling a major media/news company. It‘s just too much headaches. I can see them buying a stake or a large position in DIS at the right price.

 

I think there are a lot of business that BRK would be interested in, but the question is more of a seller parting a price that Warren is comfortable with. That intersection is very very small apparently.

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Altria ( Web bought airline stocks after all)

 

:o

 

IDK, airlines kill people by accident, occasionally, but Altria does it on purpose every day.

 

---

 

I still think Bucees would be a nice little purchase that could be expanded on.

 

The one that just opened at the Baldwin Beach Express, near Loxley, AL, is huge.

They prohibit 18 wheelers & they're mobbed up every time I've stopped in.

 

https://www.buc-ees.com/index.php

 

---

 

Too bad he didn't get WhatABurger.

I never see discount coupons for them.

They don't need to run specials.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/us/texas-whataburger-chicago.html

 

https://fortune.com/2014/12/29/byron-trott-billionaires-banker/

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Altria ( Web bought airline stocks after all)

 

:o

 

IDK, airlines kill people by accident, occasionally, but Altria does it on purpose every day.

 

---

 

I still think Bucees would be a nice little purchase that could be expanded on.

 

The one that just opened at the Baldwin Beach Express, near Loxley, AL, is huge.

They prohibit 18 wheelers & they're mobbed up every time I've stopped in.

 

https://www.buc-ees.com/index.php

 

---

 

Too bad he didn't get WhatABurger.

I never see discount coupons for them.

They don't need to run specials.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/us/texas-whataburger-chicago.html

 

https://fortune.com/2014/12/29/byron-trott-billionaires-banker/

 

But you own MO?

(I just bought 1.5% positions of MO last week)

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Altria ( Web bought airline stocks after all)

 

:o

 

IDK, airlines kill people by accident, occasionally, but Altria does it on purpose every day.

 

---

 

I still think Bucees would be a nice little purchase that could be expanded on.

 

The one that just opened at the Baldwin Beach Express, near Loxley, AL, is huge.

They prohibit 18 wheelers & they're mobbed up every time I've stopped in.

 

https://www.buc-ees.com/index.php

 

---

 

Too bad he didn't get WhatABurger.

I never see discount coupons for them.

They don't need to run specials.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/us/texas-whataburger-chicago.html

 

https://fortune.com/2014/12/29/byron-trott-billionaires-banker/

 

But you own MO?

(I just bought 1.5% positions of MO last week)

 

I do & as it says in my signature "I trumpet my ignorance"  :D

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  • 4 weeks later...

I got one.  Have AXP spin off or sell the "bank" and BRK acquires the remainder of the payments network it doesn't own. Then open up both sides of the network (to all/other issuers) and mark it to a MA multiple on the books by floating 5% back out in 2023 (like John Malone or some such).  Where mah fees at?

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Altria ( Web bought airline stocks after all)

 

:o

 

IDK, airlines kill people by accident, occasionally, but Altria does it on purpose every day.

 

---

 

I still think Bucees would be a nice little purchase that could be expanded on.

 

The one that just opened at the Baldwin Beach Express, near Loxley, AL, is huge.

They prohibit 18 wheelers & they're mobbed up every time I've stopped in.

 

https://www.buc-ees.com/index.php

 

---

 

Too bad he didn't get WhatABurger.

I never see discount coupons for them.

They don't need to run specials.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/us/texas-whataburger-chicago.html

 

https://fortune.com/2014/12/29/byron-trott-billionaires-banker/

 

Correction: Altria provides the substances needed for people who choose to kill themselves to do so everyday.

It might seem like a small distinction, but it makes all of the difference.  Anyone can choose to not be in danger of being killed by Altria.

 

(I recently bought MO at $40.)

 

 

 

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But he doesn't know that WEB doesn't do auctions.

 

WEB is also not crazy about buying assets inside a bankruptcy process. 

 

He's had some disagreements with Bankruptcy judges about the miniscule size of the deal break-up fees imposed by Courts.  Buffett views it like he is being forced to offer a put option and isn't being adequately compensated for it.

 

wabuffo

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Altria ( Web bought airline stocks after all)

 

:o

 

IDK, airlines kill people by accident, occasionally, but Altria does it on purpose every day.

 

---

 

I still think Bucees would be a nice little purchase that could be expanded on.

 

The one that just opened at the Baldwin Beach Express, near Loxley, AL, is huge.

They prohibit 18 wheelers & they're mobbed up every time I've stopped in.

 

https://www.buc-ees.com/index.php

 

---

 

Too bad he didn't get WhatABurger.

I never see discount coupons for them.

They don't need to run specials.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/us/texas-whataburger-chicago.html

 

https://fortune.com/2014/12/29/byron-trott-billionaires-banker/

 

Correction: Altria provides the substances needed for people who choose to kill themselves to do so everyday.

It might seem like a small distinction, but it makes all of the difference.  Anyone can choose to not be in danger of being killed by Altria.

 

(I recently bought MO at $40.)

 

It amazes me that WFC is under so much pressure from legislators for opening some checking accounts with 0 balances, yet cigarettes companies selling an addictive product that kills people are allowed to exist.

(Also bought MO at 40 and doubled at 43. But is still trying to convince my conscience that I shall double again my holdings)

 

 

 

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Altria ( Web bought airline stocks after all)

 

:o

 

IDK, airlines kill people by accident, occasionally, but Altria does it on purpose every day.

 

---

 

I still think Bucees would be a nice little purchase that could be expanded on.

 

The one that just opened at the Baldwin Beach Express, near Loxley, AL, is huge.

They prohibit 18 wheelers & they're mobbed up every time I've stopped in.

 

https://www.buc-ees.com/index.php

 

---

 

Too bad he didn't get WhatABurger.

I never see discount coupons for them.

They don't need to run specials.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/us/texas-whataburger-chicago.html

 

https://fortune.com/2014/12/29/byron-trott-billionaires-banker/

 

Correction: Altria provides the substances needed for people who choose to kill themselves to do so everyday.

It might seem like a small distinction, but it makes all of the difference.  Anyone can choose to not be in danger of being killed by Altria.

 

(I recently bought MO at $40.)

 

It amazes me that WFC is under so much pressure from legislators for opening some checking accounts with 0 balances, yet cigarettes companies selling an addictive product that kills people are allowed to exist.

(Also bought MO at 40 and doubled at 43. But is still trying to convince my conscience that I shall double again my holdings)

 

Whatever the distant past was like, everyone knows what the deal is with tobacco today.  No one is buying it and using it thinking that it is healthy.  That's why I have no problem owning it.  Also they should leave WFC (which I also own) alone.

 

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Altria ( Web bought airline stocks after all)

 

:o

 

IDK, airlines kill people by accident, occasionally, but Altria does it on purpose every day.

 

---

 

I still think Bucees would be a nice little purchase that could be expanded on.

 

The one that just opened at the Baldwin Beach Express, near Loxley, AL, is huge.

They prohibit 18 wheelers & they're mobbed up every time I've stopped in.

 

https://www.buc-ees.com/index.php

 

---

 

Too bad he didn't get WhatABurger.

I never see discount coupons for them.

They don't need to run specials.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/us/texas-whataburger-chicago.html

 

https://fortune.com/2014/12/29/byron-trott-billionaires-banker/

 

Correction: Altria provides the substances needed for people who choose to kill themselves to do so everyday.

It might seem like a small distinction, but it makes all of the difference.  Anyone can choose to not be in danger of being killed by Altria.

 

(I recently bought MO at $40.)

 

It amazes me that WFC is under so much pressure from legislators for opening some checking accounts with 0 balances, yet cigarettes companies selling an addictive product that kills people are allowed to exist.

(Also bought MO at 40 and doubled at 43. But is still trying to convince my conscience that I shall double again my holdings)

 

Whatever the distant past was like, everyone knows what the deal is with tobacco today.  No one is buying it and using it thinking that it is healthy.  That's why I have no problem owning it.  Also they should leave WFC (which I also own) alone.

 

I don't have a problem with the burnable business as the dangers are known (like you said).

 

My problem with MO is their decision to extend themselves into the vaping business.

 

I'm probably wrong about the negative outcomes that I believe will result.

 

TBF, they survived cig litigation & resulting payouts, & still maintained

massive FCF, so this may be a business that any idiot could run.

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Whatever the distant past was like, everyone knows what the deal is with tobacco today.  No one is buying it and using it thinking that it is healthy.   That's why I have no problem owning it.   Also they should leave WFC (which I also own) alone.

 

I don't have a problem with the burnable business as the dangers are known (like you said).

 

My problem with MO is their decision to extend themselves into the vaping business.

 

I'm probably wrong about the negative outcomes that I believe will result.

 

TBF, they survived cig litigation & resulting payouts, & still maintained

massive FCF, so this may be a business that any idiot could run.

 

RK, I hope you didn't take my response the wrong way.

(Online posts can be easily misinterpreted.)

 

My reference to "any idiot" referred to Howard A. Willard III.

 

I strongly believe that the health risks of vaping are going to be as obvious, in hindsight, as the risks are now to cigs.

 

I also believe that at $40ish, you'll make money.

 

Not a long term hold for me any more though,

and I'll dump MO if it gets into the high $60's & never look back.

 

That said, I don't know if you've seen this guys posts but he makes a good case for owning Altria,

 

https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu/status/1179871479628009485?s=20

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My father in law was a smoker for 20 years. Then my wife educated him on the health effects. One day he just quit cold turkey. So it’s not that you can’t quit because it’s addictive.

 

Personally, I would be surprised - very - to see Berkshire investing its cash this way going forward. I don't know exactly when it popped up on the Berkshire Website, but here it is : Sustainability - likely for starters.

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