Public Company Share Repurchase-Cannibals

[CorpRaider]

Yeah I would never invest in Ford or GM and I own airlines.

Edited April 26 by CorpRaider

[FCharlie]

On 4/24/2024 at 11:50 PM, FCharlie said:

GM has repurchased 17% of its shares since July (1.375 billion to 1.14 billion), largely through a $10 billion accelerated repurchase program. With that ASR now finalized, they continued buying in March through open market purchases. On the conference call the CEO mentioned they were on track to reduce shares outstanding to fewer than 1 billion, which would be a further 12% reduction. Interestingly, management said on the conference call that even though the stock price is up 50% since the ASR, the PE has only increased from 4 to 5. It's honestly remarkable that this stock trades at these levels when the buyback alone at 5X earnings has the potential to drive 15% annual eps growth.

GM authorizing another $6 billion in buybacks after completing the $10 billion ASR and $1.4 billion of open market purchases this year. Still trading around 5X earnings. 

 

https://investor.gm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gm-board-approves-new-6-billion-share-repurchase-authorization

[valueventures]

Just to further narrow this down, would be curious to hear some stocks that meet the following criteria, ideally with a long runway still:

 

1. P/E under 20

2. Started buybacks, but only last few years

3. Still growing operating earnings on an absolute basis

4. Consistent margins and stable business

 

Also, helpful to name companies that could replicate the cannibal model. Obviously, some of the most successful names to do it are MUSA, NVR, AZO, ORLY, etc. I'll start - I think DFH has a similar business model as NVR and could potentially follow in its footsteps. It has a much lower size and base from which it can compound from here, albeit with what will be lumpier, more volatile returns.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 13 by valueventures

[Whensthepaintdry?]

Arw

[Value_Added]

IMXI

[Saluki]

1 hour ago, valueventures said:

Just to further narrow this down, would be curious to hear some stocks that meet the following criteria, ideally with a long runway still:

 

1. P/E under 20

2. Started buybacks, but only last few years

3. Still growing operating earnings on an absolute basis

4. Consistent margins and stable business

 

Also, helpful to name companies that could replicate the cannibal model. Obviously, some of the most successful names to do it are MUSA, NVR, AZO, ORLY, etc. I'll start - I think DFH has a similar business model as NVR and could potentially follow in its footsteps. It has a much lower size and base from which it can compound from here, albeit with what will be lumpier, more volatile returns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's a small cap, so I'm hesitant to mention it because it's not very liquid, but check out Taylor Devices. Currently P/E is 17, they bought back 15% of shares in a block trade from an insider this year.  It's growing earnings and backlog for orders, and although it's structural business is tied to construction, it's aerospace/defense business is stable and they have been doing business with defense department/NASA since before I was born. 

[Intelligent_Investor]

Fairfax

[Spekulatius]

Here is what my tikr screen spits out. Those with the largest share count decreases tend to be re-orgs (bankruptcies etc).

	ALSN	Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.	USA	(8.37%)	(10.28%)
	VOYA	Voya Financial, Inc.	USA	(9.83%)	(12.40%)
	LBTY.A	Liberty Global Ltd.	USA	(8.26%)	(12.67%)
	DVA	DaVita Inc.	USA	(10.98%)	(12.84%)
	UNTC	Unit Corporation	USA	(20.29%)	(12.86%)
	PME	Sentry Select Primary Metals Corp.	CAN	(11.27%)	(13.47%)
	AGO	Assured Guaranty Ltd.	USA	(11.39%)	(14.00%)
	EBAY	eBay Inc.	USA	(10.57%)	(15.84%)
	NAVI	Navient Corporation	USA	(13.01%)	(16.28%)
	TRN	Trinity Industries, Inc.	USA	(8.11%)	(18.88%)
	TXT.UN	Top 10 Split Trust	CAN	(11.62%)	(20.03%)
	LPX	Louisiana-Pacific Corporation	USA	(8.24%)	(20.41%)
	8150	Sanshin Electronics Co., Ltd.	JPN	(8.83%)	(23.09%)
	AN	AutoNation, Inc.	USA	(9.48%)	(24.40%)
	CAR	Avis Budget Group, Inc.	USA	(10.47%)	(26.78%)
	VNH	VietNam Holding Limited	GBR	(8.76%)	(30.10%)
	NGLD	Nevada Canyon Gold Corp.	USA	(24.58%)	(32.07%)
	7176	Simplex Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.	JPN	(60.80%)	(36.65%)
	SBN	Mulvihill S Split Corp.	CAN	(11.22%)	(37.22%)
	SDRL	Seadrill Limited	USA	(26.01%)	(40.18%)
	ROE	Sportech Limited	DEU	(10.31%)	(41.10%)
	BSIG	BrightSphere Investment Group Inc.	USA	(13.64%)	(46.38%)
	7849	Starts Publishing Corporation	JPN	(9.43%)	(50.00%)
	BRM	BioRem Inc.	CAN	(9.10%)	(53.08%)
	JPEL	JPEL Private Equity Limited	GBR	(25.60%)	(59.49%)
	GPOR	Gulfport Energy Corporation	USA	(20.32%)	(72.20%)
	CBL	CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.	USA	(21.96%)	(82.02%)
	VCU	Vizsla Copper Corp.	CAN	(16.17%)	(85.25%)
	RRR.UN	R&R Real Estate Investment Trust	CAN	(10.68%)	(86.69%)

Edited June 15 by Spekulatius

[ValueArb]

MOMO

[Sweet]

54 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Here is what my tikr screen spits out. Those with the largest share count decreases tend to be re-orgs (bankruptcies etc).

	ALSN	Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.	USA	(8.37%)	(10.28%)
	VOYA	Voya Financial, Inc.	USA	(9.83%)	(12.40%)
	LBTY.A	Liberty Global Ltd.	USA	(8.26%)	(12.67%)
	DVA	DaVita Inc.	USA	(10.98%)	(12.84%)
	UNTC	Unit Corporation	USA	(20.29%)	(12.86%)
	PME	Sentry Select Primary Metals Corp.	CAN	(11.27%)	(13.47%)
	AGO	Assured Guaranty Ltd.	USA	(11.39%)	(14.00%)
	EBAY	eBay Inc.	USA	(10.57%)	(15.84%)
	NAVI	Navient Corporation	USA	(13.01%)	(16.28%)
	TRN	Trinity Industries, Inc.	USA	(8.11%)	(18.88%)
	TXT.UN	Top 10 Split Trust	CAN	(11.62%)	(20.03%)
	LPX	Louisiana-Pacific Corporation	USA	(8.24%)	(20.41%)
	8150	Sanshin Electronics Co., Ltd.	JPN	(8.83%)	(23.09%)
	AN	AutoNation, Inc.	USA	(9.48%)	(24.40%)
	CAR	Avis Budget Group, Inc.	USA	(10.47%)	(26.78%)
	VNH	VietNam Holding Limited	GBR	(8.76%)	(30.10%)
	NGLD	Nevada Canyon Gold Corp.	USA	(24.58%)	(32.07%)
	7176	Simplex Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.	JPN	(60.80%)	(36.65%)
	SBN	Mulvihill S Split Corp.	CAN	(11.22%)	(37.22%)
	SDRL	Seadrill Limited	USA	(26.01%)	(40.18%)
	ROE	Sportech Limited	DEU	(10.31%)	(41.10%)
	BSIG	BrightSphere Investment Group Inc.	USA	(13.64%)	(46.38%)
	7849	Starts Publishing Corporation	JPN	(9.43%)	(50.00%)
	BRM	BioRem Inc.	CAN	(9.10%)	(53.08%)
	JPEL	JPEL Private Equity Limited	GBR	(25.60%)	(59.49%)
	GPOR	Gulfport Energy Corporation	USA	(20.32%)	(72.20%)
	CBL	CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.	USA	(21.96%)	(82.02%)
	VCU	Vizsla Copper Corp.	CAN	(16.17%)	(85.25%)
	RRR.UN	R&R Real Estate Investment Trust	CAN	(10.68%)	(86.69%)

 

Thanks Spek.  What are the two right most columns.  Presumably both of them are share count reduction over different periods.

 

I still think Avis is interesting, although I don’t own anything.  Autonation as well, looked at it before and passed though.

 

 

[Whensthepaintdry?]

NAVI- I haven’t gotten my head around that one yet. Chou has a big investment in it, so that makes me interested. 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

Thanks Spek.  What are the two right most columns.  Presumably both of them are share count reduction over different periods.

 

I still think Avis is interesting, although I don’t own anything.  Autonation as well, looked at it before and passed though.

 

 

Yes, it’s the  2015-2022 annual reduction versus 2022 reduction. Now looking at this, I should change 2022 into 2023 since this data should now be in tikr.

Edited June 16 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

OI think

On 6/13/2024 at 9:29 AM, valueventures said:

Just to further narrow this down, would be curious to hear some stocks that meet the following criteria, ideally with a long runway still:

 

1. P/E under 20

2. Started buybacks, but only last few years

3. Still growing operating earnings on an absolute basis

4. Consistent margins and stable business

 

Also, helpful to name companies that could replicate the cannibal model. Obviously, some of the most successful names to do it are MUSA, NVR, AZO, ORLY, etc. I'll start - I think DFH has a similar business model as NVR and could potentially follow in its footsteps. It has a much lower size and base from which it can compound from here, albeit with what will be lumpier, more volatile returns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stelco ?

[FCharlie]

On 6/13/2024 at 9:29 AM, valueventures said:

Just to further narrow this down, would be curious to hear some stocks that meet the following criteria, ideally with a long runway still:

 

1. P/E under 20

2. Started buybacks, but only last few years

3. Still growing operating earnings on an absolute basis

4. Consistent margins and stable business

 

Also, helpful to name companies that could replicate the cannibal model. Obviously, some of the most successful names to do it are MUSA, NVR, AZO, ORLY, etc. I'll start - I think DFH has a similar business model as NVR and could potentially follow in its footsteps. It has a much lower size and base from which it can compound from here, albeit with what will be lumpier, more volatile returns.

 

 

 

 

 

How about ULTA? P/E is 15 on 2024 earnings and 13.5 on 2025 earnings. Operating income has nearly doubled last five years. Operating margins have increased in the last five years from 12% to 15%. Revenue is growing every year with the one exception being 2020 when many stores were closed and people were staying home. Ex 2020 revenue grows consistently. ULTA has been buying $1 billion of stock back per year for a couple of years. 

[Stuart D]

On 2/29/2024 at 2:38 AM, Xerxes said:

MGM International

 

"We started the quarter with great momentum across our businesses. While we were faced with a difficult cybersecurity issue in September, our employees rose to the occasion with incredible resilience and determination. With the incident now behind us, we are a stronger company having been through the challenge," said Bill Hornbuckle, Chief Executive Officer and President of MGM Resorts. "Going forward we have much to be optimistic about with Formula 1's inaugural Las Vegas race next week and early next year the debut of the MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy followed by the Super Bowl. Beyond these catalysts, MGM China is performing exceptionally well, and we have a pipeline of development opportunities including New York and Japan alongside the growth and development of our international digital business and BetMGM."

 

"We continue to view share repurchases as an attractive opportunity to return value to our shareholders," said Jonathan Halkyard, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of MGM Resorts. "Year-to-date, we have repurchased approximately $1.7 billion in stock. Our buyback program totals $6.2 billion since the beginning of 2021, reducing our share count by over 30%."

 

https://investors.mgmresorts.com/investors/news-releases/press-release-details/2023/MGM-RESORTS-INTERNATIONAL-REPORTS-THIRD-QUARTER-2023-FINANCIAL-AND-OPERATING-RESULTS/default.aspx

 

IAC reflection on the name

 

"Our largest holding, MGM is a keen beneficiary of growth in the travel & leisure sector, which has materially outpaced broader consumer spending generally for the last 20 years. Consumers’ ever increasing time spent on social media has elevated exposure and access to new experiences, making the top of the travel & leisure funnel – FOMO – only grow. As social currency moves away from ownership (less shareable online) towards experiences, MGM has gained. MGM is also the market leader in Las Vegas, which showed the world again this past weekend why it’s the global center for sports and entertainment experiences: nearly every major live tour, show, fight, race, competition, chef, and soon to be every major league sport, has a Las Vegas outpost, and MGM often plays host. Even as post-pandemic tailwinds fade, the shift from goods to experiences is a decades-long trend, not a fad, and the increasing premium on live events and experiences makes MGM a bona fide trophy asset. But the MGM secret seems to be safe with us, as the company has been able to buy back 35% of its shares outstanding since we got involved, still at incredibly attractive prices relative to earnings, especially for something so unique. We owned nearly 20% at the end of 2023 and, with continued repurchases, could still own more before the secret gets out."

 

 

 

 

Great call out @Xerxes. They are so aggressive on the buy-backs at the moment. It would be nice if there was a little more term to their debt ($1.5-$2b maturing in 25,26,27), but then again, they do have an almost $3b cash balance against a ~$6b debt load, so liquidity shouldn't be an issue.

 

Interesting line on the debt due within 1-yr being classified as long term:

 

"MGM China's senior notes due within one year of the December 31, 2023 balance sheet were classified as long-term as MGM China has both the intent and ability to refinance the current maturities on a long-term basis."

[schin]

I have recently found Atkore Inc - ATKR. I think it checks all the cannibal boxes.

 

 

 

[Xerxes]

Graham Holdings

 

[giulio]

UniCredit (UCG) bought back 2.7% of its shares in 6 weeks. An additional €1.5B authorized and I expect more to come in Q3-Q4. It trades at 5.5x this year's expected earnings.

[frommi]

Imperial Brands has bought back >5% of shares the past 12 months while also paying a 7-8% dividend and still trades at a stable >10% fcf yield.

[schin]

6 hours ago, giulio said:

UniCredit (UCG) bought back 2.7% of its shares in 6 weeks. An additional €1.5B authorized and I expect more to come in Q3-Q4. It trades at 5.5x this year's expected earnings.

@giulio - It's amazing how UniCredit had the worst credit risks of European Banks and now, it's one of the most profitable and under appreciated. I like the capital returns, but it was a quick turn from worst to first.

[giulio]

47 minutes ago, schin said:

@giulio - It's amazing how UniCredit had the worst credit risks of European Banks and now, it's one of the most profitable and under appreciated. I like the capital returns, but it was a quick turn from worst to first.

At one point it was trading at less than 0.4 BV, probably 3 years ago. It's the second largest bank in Italy. 

Higher rates, incredibly low starting valuation and Orcel contributed to a spectacular performance.

I am impressed by how prepared he was, he saw a lot of value and has executed flawlessly so far. 

His words re: capital allocation are reassuring as well. He won't do a deal just for the sake of empire building. At this valuation ucg is buying back 25% of daily volumes.

I guess it's one of those Einhorn stocks!

[Eldad]

On 6/13/2024 at 8:29 AM, valueventures said:

Just to further narrow this down, would be curious to hear some stocks that meet the following criteria, ideally with a long runway still:

 

1. P/E under 20

2. Started buybacks, but only last few years

3. Still growing operating earnings on an absolute basis

4. Consistent margins and stable business

 

Also, helpful to name companies that could replicate the cannibal model. Obviously, some of the most successful names to do it are MUSA, NVR, AZO, ORLY, etc. I'll start - I think DFH has a similar business model as NVR and could potentially follow in its footsteps. It has a much lower size and base from which it can compound from here, albeit with what will be lumpier, more volatile returns.

 

 

 

 

 

LOW 

[thowed]

On 6/18/2024 at 3:48 AM, schin said:

I have recently found Atkore Inc - ATKR. I think it checks all the cannibal boxes.

 

 

 

 

Yes, I am quite fascinated by this.  I think @Packer16 is a fan to some degree.

 

Long-term figures are sensational, but has corrected a fair bit in the last few months.

 

There's a tug-of-war in sentiment - some think it's a cracker of a company with a Danaher DBS style of management.  But others think they've just been overearning.

 

I haven't chosen my side yet, but did pick up a few shares recently.  Any thoughts appreciated.

[schin]

5 hours ago, thowed said:

 

Yes, I am quite fascinated by this.  I think @Packer16 is a fan to some degree.

 

Long-term figures are sensational, but has corrected a fair bit in the last few months.

 

There's a tug-of-war in sentiment - some think it's a cracker of a company with a Danaher DBS style of management.  But others think they've just been overearning.

 

I haven't chosen my side yet, but did pick up a few shares recently.  Any thoughts appreciated.

@thowed - I am inching into the position. In the last conference call, they mentioned they are comfortable with 18/sh of earning... Trading at 130/sh now..that's a sub 10 P/E.... with limited debt...  Even if they are over-earning, the products are tangible and not vaporware... and if they are overearning, they are NOT over leveraging... which is a recipe for disaster. They are making investments in plants in America and not an Asian plant that might not exist.  The workflow is not streamlined, but they acknowledge it's a work in progress.

 

If you goto their website, the jobs they are hiring for...are very blue collar... which is not bad or good, per se... just they don't get blackmailed by hiring AI engineers and IT staff at premiums.

[thowed]

@schin Many thanks for this, very helpful, I will go back to reports & calls to keep working on it.

 

I've been similarly looking at BLDR - a bit of overlap, and another one with stellar 5-year performance but has rushed down since peak at end of Q1.  Given how much they've gone up, not really a surprise to see a correction.  But unlike much else in the market, the correction has brought them to quite reasonable valuations again.

 

It feels like the market is so simple & binary at the moment, and part of the issue for these sorts of companies is 'interest cuts not happening now' = bad.  I don't think this should necessarily be the case if management know what they're doing.

 

Only thing I remember is that last results were quite disappointing, but just need to be happy that that was just one of those occasional blips anybody can have, rather than a frequent occurrence (though I know sometimes these things happen in threes...).

 

There is a 2024 Substack write-up and a VIC 2023 write-up which you've probably seen, but I can dig out links if helpful.