Fairfax stock positions

[gfp]

Fairfax's year end 13-F was released -

https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=FFH

[Daphne]

INVESTIGATION ALERT: Berger Montague is Investigating Securities Fraud Claims on Behalf of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (OTC: FRFHF, FFHPF) Investors 

 

Dow Jones - Updated 43 minutes ago 

INVESTIGATION ALERT: Berger Montague is Investigating Securities Fraud Claims on Behalf of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (OTC: FRFHF, FFHPF) Investors 

PHILADELPHIA, Feb. 14, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Berger Montague is currently investigating potential violations of the federal securities laws on behalf of shareholders of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited ("Fairfax Financial") (OTC: FRFHF, FFHPF). 

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE INVESTIGATION 

Fairfax Financial, headquartered in Toronto, provides property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, as well as investment management services in the United States and internationally. 

On February 8, 2024, short-seller Muddy Waters Research published a report titled "Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.: The GE of Canada." 

Following this news, Fairfax Financial's share price fell by more than 11.6%, from a closing price of $1,041.43 on February 7, 2024 to a close of $920.37 on February 8, 2024 -- a decline of $121.06 per share. 

If you are a Fairfax Financial investor and would like to learn more about our investigation, please contact Berger Montague: James Maro at [email protected] or (267) 637-3176, or Andrew Abramowitz at [email protected] or (215) 875-3015 or CLICK HERE. 

Whistleblowers: Anyone with non-public information regarding Fairfax Financial is encouraged to confidentially assist Berger Montague's investigation or take advantage of the SEC Whistleblower program. Under this program, whistleblowers who provide original information may receive rewards totaling up to thirty percent (30%) of recoveries obtained by the SEC. For more information, contact us. 

Berger Montague, with offices in Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Washington, D.C., Delaware, San Diego, San Francisco and Chicago, has been a pioneer in securities class action litigation since its founding in 1970. Berger Montague has represented individual and institutional investors for over five decades and serves as lead counsel in courts throughout the United States.

[gfp]

Yeah, that's nothing.  These law firms do this for every stock decline that makes the news.

[Crip1]

12 minutes ago, Daphne said:

INVESTIGATION ALERT: Berger Montague is Investigating Securities Fraud Claims on Behalf of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (OTC: FRFHF, FFHPF) Investors 

 

Dow Jones - Updated 43 minutes ago 

INVESTIGATION ALERT: Berger Montague is Investigating Securities Fraud Claims on Behalf of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (OTC: FRFHF, FFHPF) Investors 

PHILADELPHIA, Feb. 14, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Berger Montague is currently investigating potential violations of the federal securities laws on behalf of shareholders of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited ("Fairfax Financial") (OTC: FRFHF, FFHPF). 

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE INVESTIGATION 

Fairfax Financial, headquartered in Toronto, provides property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, as well as investment management services in the United States and internationally. 

On February 8, 2024, short-seller Muddy Waters Research published a report titled "Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.: The GE of Canada." 

Following this news, Fairfax Financial's share price fell by more than 11.6%, from a closing price of $1,041.43 on February 7, 2024 to a close of $920.37 on February 8, 2024 -- a decline of $121.06 per share. 

If you are a Fairfax Financial investor and would like to learn more about our investigation, please contact Berger Montague: James Maro at [email protected] or (267) 637-3176, or Andrew Abramowitz at [email protected] or (215) 875-3015 or CLICK HERE. 

Whistleblowers: Anyone with non-public information regarding Fairfax Financial is encouraged to confidentially assist Berger Montague's investigation or take advantage of the SEC Whistleblower program. Under this program, whistleblowers who provide original information may receive rewards totaling up to thirty percent (30%) of recoveries obtained by the SEC. For more information, contact us. 

Berger Montague, with offices in Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Washington, D.C., Delaware, San Diego, San Francisco and Chicago, has been a pioneer in securities class action litigation since its founding in 1970. Berger Montague has represented individual and institutional investors for over five decades and serves as lead counsel in courts throughout the United States.

Not going to exonerate Muddy Waters, but this looks to be ambulance chasing. 

 

-Crip

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/maersk-had-more-cash-knew-120000731.html

 

Not the way to spend a $41B windfall!  Hopefully, Poseidon/Atlas has been more prudent with their income on their long-term contracts.  Cheers!

[nwoodman]

18 minutes ago, Parsad said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/maersk-had-more-cash-knew-120000731.html

 

Not the way to spend a $41B windfall!  Hopefully, Poseidon/Atlas has been more prudent with their income on their long-term contracts.  Cheers!

That pretty much encapsulates the Atlas thesis - long term meat and potatoes vs short term sugar hit.  A good reminder of how patient capital (strong hands) could make a difference to this industry

 

 

 

[nwoodman]

Market is enjoying the Quess demerger announcement

https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/quess-corp-announces-strategic-demerger-a-tripartite-leap-forward

 

 

 

 

[Hoodlum]

Here are some more details behind the Quess decision. There is an investor meeting on Wednesday where more details may come out. 
 

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/quess-corp-share-price-demerger-three-entities-swap-ratio-revenue-contribution-19077801.htm/amp
 

“Finding a strategic investor will be related to the opportunity to bring with them and not for the sake of the money that they bring because we are sufficiently capitalised, we have Fairfax is an investor, got $90 billion of assets under management, promoters own 57% of the company. So, it's unlikely that we need cash,” Issac said. He added that if there is a principle of additionality and something that investors can bring to the table, then the company would be open to discuss but not otherwise.

Based on the demerged entities, Quess Corp will contribute 68% to the consolidated revenue of the company, Digitide will contribute 14%, while the remaining 18% will come from Bluspring.

"This proposal should help the company compare on comparable metric with listed players, which might be welcomed by investors," brokerage firm Motilal Oswal said in its note.

Quess Corp will hold an investor meet on February 21 for the same.

 

[petec]

There is a comment on the 4q call that Atlas projects $600m of earnings in 2025. From the context it is not clear whether this is for the whole company or just Fairfax's share. I could probably find out if I could be bothered, but I can't, so...does anyone know?

[SafetyinNumbers]

25 minutes ago, petec said:

There is a comment on the 4q call that Atlas projects $600m of earnings in 2025. From the context it is not clear whether this is for the whole company or just Fairfax's share. I could probably find out if I could be bothered, but I can't, so...does anyone know?

I think it’s for the whole company.

[petec]

On 2/21/2024 at 7:12 PM, SafetyinNumbers said:

I think it’s for the whole company.

 

Lovely, thanks.

[glider3834]

https://cyprus-mail.com/2024/02/23/hellenic-bank-posts-e365-4-million-profit-for-2023-new-lending-climbs-to-e1-2-billion/

[Viking]

4 hours ago, glider3834 said:

https://cyprus-mail.com/2024/02/23/hellenic-bank-posts-e365-4-million-profit-for-2023-new-lending-climbs-to-e1-2-billion/

My math says Eurobank paid an average of €1.78 to acquire 55.3% of Hellenic Bank over the past couple of years (awaiting regulatory approvals to become majority owner). In 2023, Hellenic Bank earned €0.88/share. Tangible book value at Hellenic Bank is €3.54/share at Dec 31, 2023, up 35% year over year. This is looking like a great investment by Eurobank.
 

- https://www.hellenicbank.com/-/media/hbc/announcements/2024/february/12m2023/commentary-en.pdf

Edited February 23, 2024 by Viking

[glider3834]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

My math says Eurobank paid an average of €1.78 to acquire 55.3% of Hellenic Bank over the past couple of years (awaiting regulatory approvals to become majority owner). In 2023, Hellenic Bank earned €0.88/share. Tangible book value at Hellenic Bank is €3.54/share at Dec 31, 2023, up 35% year over year. This is looking like a great investment by Eurobank.
 

- https://www.hellenicbank.com/-/media/hbc/announcements/2024/february/12m2023/commentary-en.pdf

+1 - hopefully Eurobank can get remaining approvals to be able to offer for 100% - also Hellenic's capital ratios look decent in the 20s & NPEs have been de-risked into the low single digits  - also regulators have put on hold any dividends by Hellenic pending acquisition by Eurobank 

 

' Furthermore, despite high earning, the bank said it cannot proceed with the declaration of dividend for full year 2023 “due to regulatory restriction.”

“At this moment the restriction is in place due to a series of reasons. We at this transitional phase amid a takeover which the regulators have deemed that capital should remain with the organization instead of being distributed as a dividend,” Rouvas said.'

https://www.stockwatch.com.cy/en/article/trapezes/hellenic-bank-posts-highest-ever-profit-dividend-distribution-hold-due-takeover

Edited February 23, 2024 by glider3834

[Viking]

25 minutes ago, glider3834 said:

+1 - hopefully Eurobank can get remaining approvals to be able to offer for 100% - also Hellenic's capital ratios look decent in the 20s & NPEs have been de-risked into the low single digits  - also regulators have put on hold any dividends by Hellenic pending acquisition by Eurobank 

 

' Furthermore, despite high earning, the bank said it cannot proceed with the declaration of dividend for full year 2023 “due to regulatory restriction.”

“At this moment the restriction is in place due to a series of reasons. We at this transitional phase amid a takeover which the regulators have deemed that capital should remain with the organization instead of being distributed as a dividend,” Rouvas said.'

https://www.stockwatch.com.cy/en/article/trapezes/hellenic-bank-posts-highest-ever-profit-dividend-distribution-hold-due-takeover

With the size of earnings at Hellenic Bank, it must be disappointing for minority shareholders to not get a big dividend payout right away. With all the cash building at Hellenic Bank, does this mean Hellenic will actually be able to fund a big piece of the takeout of the minority partners? W

—————

Banking in Cypress is a duopoly with Hellenic Bank and Bank of Cypress with something like 80% share in most important categories when combined? Here are the results from Bank of Cypress - also outstanding.

 

https://www.stockwatch.com.cy/en/article/trapezes/bank-cyprus-posts-almost-eu05-billion-net-profit-2023

 

Edited February 23, 2024 by Viking

[ValueMaven]

Where can I read about the history of FFH's ownership of Eurobank?  

[nwoodman]

46 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:

Where can I read about the history of FFH's ownership of Eurobank?  

You could always try the EGFEY (ADR) thread.  In a nutshell Prem tried to repeat the success with Bank of Ireland.  It’s been a hard slog but is working nicely for shareholders now.  Their perseverance with Eurobank has been brand accretive. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobank_Ergasias

 

 

[Haryana]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/rob-magazine/article-highest-paid-ceos-canada-company-performance/

 

Blackberry is the king here with way up highest compensation and way up highest loss. Even Air Canada cannot match it. 

Edited February 24, 2024 by Haryana
Blackberry

[ValueMaven]

Whats the best way outside of the Ks & Qs to look at Fairfax's equity portfolio?

[gfp]

7 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:

Whats the best way outside of the Ks & Qs to look at Fairfax's equity portfolio?

 

For the US holdings this is the shortcut I use for the 13F holdings.

https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=FFH

 

For the Canadian, International and OTC type holdings I use the company reports and Viking puts out some nice summaries.

[nwoodman]

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-acquisition-of-additional-orla-shares-3/
 

“Orla and brings Fairfax’s total holdings, through its insurance subsidiaries, of such securities to 55,405,229 Common Shares (or approximately 17.58% of all Common Shares).”

 

$3.375 at the time of writing, makes this a $186m position.  A bit more than a passing phase.  
 

Between Orla and Foran it’s close to $400mn.  Throw in the Altius warrants and it is close to $500 mn.  Then take the Exco and Occidental positions that’s another $900m or so.  Taken as a basket, you could almost argue that commodities is their third big equity idea after Eurobank and Poseidon/Atlas.  
 

No idea about Exco, but the others seem to be long life assets and not just cigar butts.

[ValueMaven]

MU has been on FIRE recently 

[nwoodman]

MS with a minor upgrade to Eurobank ahead of earnings.  Revised PT €2.35 from €2.33

 

“We update our model ahead of 4Q23 results. We lower opex marginally to incorporate one offs related to floods in 3Q23 and restructuring cost. Our FY23-25 EPS is up by ~1.5% and our PT increases by ~1% to EUR2.35. We remain Overweight. 

• A strong balance sheet means that Eurobank is one of the the most resilient Greek banks in our coverage. We expect performing loans to grow at a ~6% CAGR (pro-forma for Hellenic bank acquisition) in 2023-25.
• We forecast NIMs to decrease by 2bps in 2024 followed by a 13bps contraction in 2025 (pro-forma for Hellenic bank acquisition), as we expect the rate-cutting cycle to begin in 2Q24, thus driving asset yields lower.
• 3Q23 NPE ratio stood at 5.0%; we forecast it to reach 3.6% by 2025.
• We see the Hellenic Bank acquisition as accretive for the bank.”

 

So roughly a $2.5 bn equity position for Fairfax at an earnings yield of 15% for the foreseeable future.  Every “little” bit helps.

EUROBANK_20240227_1450.PDF

[petec]

On 2/26/2024 at 7:47 PM, nwoodman said:

Taken as a basket, you could almost argue that commodities is their third big equity idea after Eurobank and Poseidon/Atlas.

 

Yes - I've been thinking this for a while. 

 

Don't they have equity in Altius as well as warrants? 

[nwoodman]

58 minutes ago, petec said:

 

Yes - I've been thinking this for a while. 

 

Don't they have equity in Altius as well as warrants? 

Spot on!

 

“The Warrants and the Preferred Securities were originally issued on April 26, 2017. Prior to the Transaction,
Fairfax directly or indirectly owned or controlled an aggregate of no Common Shares, 6,670,000 Warrants
and $100 million Preferred Securities, which represented 13.94% of the issued and outstanding Common
Shares as of April 14, 2022, on a partially diluted basis. Following the completion of the Transaction, Fairfax
will directly or indirectly own or control 6,670,000 Common Shares, which represents 13.94% of the issued
and outstanding Common Shares as of April 14, 2022, on a non-diluted basis, and Altius will have no
outstanding Warrants, Preferred Securities or resulting interest distribution obligations.”

 

https://www.altiusminerals.com/_resources/press-releases/2022-04-14-fairfax-exercise-final-1649938923.pdf?v=0.327