SafetyinNumbers Posted February 2 Posted February 2 26 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: t looks like Point North Capital will be selling their shares for the AGT Food IPO, with Fairfax and Murad not selling theirs. Point North Capital is OMERS. They appear to be sellers only if the offering goes into the shoe. 29 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: AGT plans to use the proceeds from the share sale to reduce debt servicing costs and to facilitate share sales by existing shareholders. The document shows the company expects the reduction in annual finance expense would be $43.7 million, resulting in improved net earnings and cash flow. I don’t think that’s right. Fairfax is exercising 15m warrants at C$22.50 and that cash is being used to repay the Sponsor Notes. The shares being offered are from the co-founder and other specified employees.
Hoodlum Posted February 2 Posted February 2 1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Point North Capital is OMERS. They appear to be sellers only if the offering goes into the shoe. I don’t think that’s right. Fairfax is exercising 15m warrants at C$22.50 and that cash is being used to repay the Sponsor Notes. The shares being offered are from the co-founder and other specified employees. Thanks for the clarification on this.
Hoodlum Posted February 2 Posted February 2 AGT went private in 2018 for $416M with EDITDA of $72M, so they are a much larger and diversified company now, having been able to traverse the tariffs over the past year. They will have no debt at time of IPO and could provide a dividend along with growth prospect. It will be interesting to see how they price AGT.
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 3 Posted February 3 54 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: AGT went private in 2018 for $416M with EDITDA of $72M, so they are a much larger and diversified company now, having been able to traverse the tariffs over the past year. They will have no debt at time of IPO and could provide a dividend along with growth prospect. It will be interesting to see how they price AGT. i guess they are issuing a bunch of primary shares as well to pay off the rest of the debt. I thought it was just secondary shares but that looks wrong.
Hoodlum Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) 8 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: i guess they are issuing a bunch of primary shares as well to pay off the rest of the debt. I thought it was just secondary shares but that looks wrong. what you provided doesn’t show the percentage of shares for the equity holders not selling, after the IPO. You would think that Fairfax would show 80% under all 3 columns if new shares were not being issued. So it is not quite clear if there will be new shares issued under either scenario. Edited February 3 by Hoodlum
giulio Posted February 3 Posted February 3 Wondering why ffh is not buying out the selling shareholders instead of ipoing agt?
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 3 Posted February 3 34 minutes ago, giulio said: Wondering why ffh is not buying out the selling shareholders instead of ipoing agt? Could be they can’t agree on price with the selling shareholders so they are letting the market decide or they don’t want to own that much.
Junior R Posted February 3 Posted February 3 1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Could be they can’t agree on price with the selling shareholders so they are letting the market decide or they don’t want to own that much. also if they believe AGT will do good in public markets its a way to rerate their holdings
Hoodlum Posted February 5 Posted February 5 Fairfax now owns 26.6% of JKH. https://economynext.com/fairfax-ups-stake-in-sri-lankas-john-keells-holdings-259765/ Canada-based Fairfax financial group has increased its stake in Sri Lanka’s John Keells Holdings, with another foreign investor selling out, market sources said. Fairfax, through HWIC Asia Fund, already had a 25.5 percent stake in JKH and is the largest shareholder. Norges Fund 2, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, had a 1.1 percent stake in JKH (188 million shares), has sold shares, market sources said. 1
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 5 Posted February 5 BAMI closed its deal to buy TBRD and is unsurprisingly seeing flowback from TBRD shareholders as most of the consideration was equity. I think Fairfax will drop under 20% post deal so will stop equity accounting for the position. It’s not material to FFH. The TBRD deal was struck 0.2165 shares of BAMI for all stock or a combination of cash and stock at $1.77 or $8.17 in BAMI terms. The current price of BAMI is $6.55. Cormark covers the stock and expects $1.40 in EPS for F’2027 which ends in August.
ValueNation Posted February 5 Posted February 5 1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said: BAMI closed its deal to buy TBRD and is unsurprisingly seeing flowback from TBRD shareholders as most of the consideration was equity. I think Fairfax will drop under 20% post deal so will stop equity accounting for the position. It’s not material to FFH. The TBRD deal was struck 0.2165 shares of BAMI for all stock or a combination of cash and stock at $1.77 or $8.17 in BAMI terms. The current price of BAMI is $6.55. Cormark covers the stock and expects $1.40 in EPS for F’2027 which ends in August. Thanks for pointing this out - assuming the huge volume is TBRD shareholders trying to liquidate. Am I correct in thinking that FFH's cost basis on BAMI is around $18? So it is currently trading at about 1/3 of their cost with an accretive acquisition not yet factored into the price? Sounds interesting.
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 6 Posted February 6 On 2/2/2026 at 7:24 PM, SafetyinNumbers said: i guess they are issuing a bunch of primary shares as well to pay off the rest of the debt. I thought it was just secondary shares but that looks wrong. More colour on the AGTF IPO.
Hoodlum Posted February 6 Posted February 6 19 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: More colour on the AGTF IPO. thanks for sharing @SafetyinNumbers So does this mean they are anticipating an IPO of between $26-$30/share? I believe they took it private in 2018 for $18/share. If this is accurate then the valuation is not that high, considering the growth in sales and earnings during that period. Maybe I have missed something.
hardcorevalue Posted February 6 Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: thanks for sharing @SafetyinNumbers So does this mean they are anticipating an IPO of between $26-$30/share? I believe they took it private in 2018 for $18/share. If this is accurate then the valuation is not that high, considering the growth in sales and earnings during that period. Maybe I have missed something. Wait is the share count the same? Why are you comparing the stock prices? 1
Hoodlum Posted February 6 Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said: Wait is the share count the same? Why are you comparing the stock prices? That is a good question. I would think a share count would be mentioned somewhere in the IPO document.
gfp Posted February 6 Posted February 6 (edited) AGT had 24,236,536 shares when it was taken private at CAD$ 18 per share ($436m CAD) It sounds like AGT will have 68-70 million shares outstanding after the IPO but there is no definitive answer until the IPO prices. EDIT: Looks like 55.6 million shares post-IPO without the over allotment (FFH at 52%) ... or ... 55.9 million shares with the full over allotment exercised. The first ~2.2m shares of the over allotment option are actually sold by OMERS out of their existing holding and after that the rest of the over allotment raises new capital for treasury (only 277k shares) Edited February 6 by gfp
Hoodlum Posted February 6 Posted February 6 (edited) 16 minutes ago, gfp said: AGT had 24,236,536 shares when it was taken private at CAD$ 18 per share ($436m CAD) It sounds like AGT will have 68-70 million shares outstanding after the IPO but there is no definitive answer until the IPO prices. So based on what we know/assume, we would be looking at market cap of $1.7-$2.1B, which is near the high end of where I thought it might fall. But I am not sure if there are additional shares being issued and if so how many. I believe most shares available for distribution as part of the IPO, are coming from the current minor shareholders that are selling. Any new shares would dilute Fairfax’s 80% ownership at the time of the IPO. Also would this IPO require Fairfax to remark the valuation of AGT and if so would that hit both the earnings and book value? Edited February 6 by Hoodlum
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 6 Posted February 6 9 hours ago, gfp said: AGT had 24,236,536 shares when it was taken private at CAD$ 18 per share ($436m CAD) It sounds like AGT will have 68-70 million shares outstanding after the IPO but there is no definitive answer until the IPO prices. I think after the FFH warrants are exercised there are 36.5m shares. At the mid point of the range, it adds about 15m shares to raise $425m. Is there something else I’m missing?
Hoodlum Posted February 6 Posted February 6 (edited) 43 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I think after the FFH warrants are exercised there are 36.5m shares. At the mid point of the range, it adds about 15m shares to raise $425m. Is there something else I’m missing? The prospectus mentioned that Fairfax would own between 51-53% of AGT after the IPO. 29M shares Immediately following Closing, assuming a Treasury Offering size of $425,000,000, certain affiliates of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (collectively, “Fairfax”) will, directly or indirectly, have an approximate interest between 51.2% and 53.2% in the Company through ownership of, or control or direction over, 29,050,368 common shares of the Company Upon completion of the Offering, AGT’s authorized share capital will consist of an unlimited number of Common Shares and an unlimited number of preferred shares, issuable in series, of which an aggregate of between 54,619,229 and 56,798,716 Common Shares (between 54,732,132 and 57,265,465 Offered Shares assuming the Over-Allotment Option is exercised in full) The below is based on a midpoint IPO of $28/share. Murad-Al Katib also holds 1,332,035 PSUs, which may settle into Common Shares at his election at any time after Closing. AGT Foods Prospectus https://www.sedarplus.ca/csa-party/records/document.html?id=4637fac564261b84ab61c4713f6f4c4df821dcfc0d38162f90a331af7f4c4d2a Based on the below comment, it looks like they expect IPO to occur very soon. Our audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 are not expected to be available until after this Offering is completed, and consequently are not expected to be available to you prior to investing in the Common Shares. Edited February 6 by Hoodlum
gfp Posted February 6 Posted February 6 46 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I think after the FFH warrants are exercised there are 36.5m shares. At the mid point of the range, it adds about 15m shares to raise $425m. Is there something else I’m missing? My bad - I edited my post above " Looks like 55.6 million shares post-IPO without the over allotment (FFH at 52%) ... or ... 55.9 million shares with the full over allotment exercised. The first ~2.2m shares of the over allotment option are actually sold by OMERS out of their existing holding and after that the rest of the over allotment raises new capital for treasury (only 277k shares)"
dartmonkey Posted February 6 Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Hoodlum said: The prospectus mentioned that Fairfax would own between 51-53% of AGT after the IPO. 29M shares Immediately following Closing, assuming a Treasury Offering size of $425,000,000, certain affiliates of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (collectively, “Fairfax”) will, directly or indirectly, have an approximate interest between 51.2% and 53.2% in the Company through ownership of, or control or direction over, 29,050,368 common shares of the Company Upon completion of the Offering, AGT’s authorized share capital will consist of an unlimited number of Common Shares and an unlimited number of preferred shares, issuable in series, of which an aggregate of between 54,619,229 and 56,798,716 Common Shares (between 54,732,132 and 57,265,465 Offered Shares assuming the Over-Allotment Option is exercised in full) The below is based on a midpoint IPO of $28/share. Murad-Al Katib also holds 1,332,035 PSUs, which may settle into Common Shares at his election at any time after Closing. AGT Foods Prospectus https://www.sedarplus.ca/csa-party/records/document.html?id=4637fac564261b84ab61c4713f6f4c4df821dcfc0d38162f90a331af7f4c4d2a Based on the below comment, it looks like they expect IPO to occur very soon. Our audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 are not expected to be available until after this Offering is completed, and consequently are not expected to be available to you prior to investing in the Common Shares. So by my calculation, pre-IPO, there are 29,050,368/0.80=36312960 shares outstanding, and if these are priced at $28 in the upcoming IPO, they would be worth $1.107b. So the company has gone from a $436m valuation when it was taken private in Dec. 2018. Assuming the IPO happens in about a month, this would mean that in the 7 1/4 years since the take-private, the value of the company has appreciated by 1107/468 - 1 = 137%, or 12.6% annualized. Given the leverage involved in Fairfax investments, that is an excellent return. I am not surprised they are keeping all their shares, although their percentage ownership will drop from 80% to 52%.
Hoodlum Posted February 6 Posted February 6 Metlen was down 16% today after issuing earnings warning. Under Armour jumped 12% this morning after better than expected earnings results.
villainx Posted February 6 Posted February 6 16 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: Under Armour jumped 12% this morning after better than expected earnings results. I bought some stuff for the kids but I don't think it would be included in this earning results.
Hoodlum Posted February 6 Posted February 6 While difficult to determine, I think that Fairfax has close to a $100M gain on UAA YTD ($5/share).
Junior R Posted February 6 Posted February 6 2 hours ago, Hoodlum said: While difficult to determine, I think that Fairfax has close to a $100M gain on UAA YTD ($5/share). good gains
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now