Fairfax stock positions

[djokovic1]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Wasn't a change in style 

 

We can argue about the specifics but the biggest change is no more equity hedges which destroyed a lot of value. That is the one big change that matters the most.

[Viking]

27 minutes ago, djokovic1 said:

 

We can argue about the specifics but the biggest change is no more equity hedges which destroyed a lot of value. That is the one big change that matters the most.

 

Yes, with hindsight, the equity hedge was the biggest issue. But Jan 1, 2017, Fairfax still had big problems. It was still shorting in a bog way. And its equity portfolio was littered with dogs. 

 

Here is how I think about it:

 

Fairfax had three problems:

1.) Equity hedges

2.) Shorts

3.) Investment framework used for equities

 

1.) Equity hedges - 'fixed' end of 2016 (when it was removed)

2.) Shorts - 'fixed' end of 2020 (when last short was removed and Fairfax promising it would not happen again)

3.) Investment framework used for equities - 'fixed' around 2018

 

The first 2 were clean (all Fairfax had to do was exit the positions). The third has taken the company 8 years to 'fix'. The reverse takeover of Boat Rocker by Blue Ant this year was (hopefully) the final act (with a $109 million write-down in 2025).  

 

The dogs are gone. The queens/keepers (in the old portfolio) are rocking. New purchases (since 2018) are rocking.

 

What Fairfax owns today (as a group) are a bunch of holdings that are very well managed, strong balance sheets, profitable with solid prospects. I have followed Fairfax since 2003. The equity portfolio (as a group) is higher quality (based on the 4 metrics I mentioned) than I have ever seen before. I think that is (primarily) by design not happenstance. Yes, other factors have had an impact - but that was the case 10 years ago too (and will be the case 10 years into the future). Other factors will always be a factor.

 

I think the performance of Fairfax's equity portfolio in recent years is primarily because of the decisions/efforts of the management team over the past 8 years. As a result, I expect future results to continue to be strong (over time, with some volatility) - irrespective of the economic backdrop.

 

[Hoodlum]

Eurobank has restarted their share buybacks after the completion of some Cyprus Bank acquisition related transactions.

 

https://www.eurobank.gr/en/group/grafeio-tupou/etairiki-anakoinosi-22-12-2025

 

 

[Hektor]

22 hours ago, dartmonkey said:

I don’t see a lot of evidence of recent investments that are aiming for Mungerian quality as opposed to Buffettian value plays.

I doubt they are aiming for a Mungerian or a Buffettian model. Their picks seems aligned with (my understanding of) Templeton, whom they (at least Prem) admire. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Hektor said:

I doubt they are aiming for a Mungerian or a Buffettian model. Their picks seems aligned with (my understanding of) Templeton, whom they (at least Prem) admire. 

I call what they do, Expected Value, which is a probabilistic approach to investing. This is why they can make venture bets and buy commodity companies which makes Buffettians and Mungarians wince. Their size makes them skew towards quality especially with respect to the jockeys. Quality with respect to commodity companies means low costs and long reserve life.

[Hoodlum]

On 11/13/2025 at 6:29 PM, Viking said:

Fairfax's equity portfolio is having a stellar year in 2025. It is not just the big boys like Eurobank and Orla Mining. Many of the smaller positions are also performing exceptionally well.

 

Altius Minerals is a smaller equity holding for Fairfax (it is a top 25 based on MV). The stock has increased in price by 64% in 2025. The market value of Fairfax's position has grown from US$127 million at the start of the year to $208 million at Nov 13, 2025, an increase of $81 million. Altius also pays a small dividend. 

 

 

What is the total return Fairfax has generated on this investment since inception?

 

Fairfax made an initial investment in Altius of C$100 million (US$78 million) in April 2017. Over the past 8.5 years, Fairfax has generated a total return on this investment of about US$153 million, or 197%. This is a CAGR of about 13.6%. 

• Total return = increase in market value + interest + dividends

Summary

 

Altius is yet another example of the team at Fairfax's investment management business allocating capital exceptionally well. 

 

 

Who is Altius Minerals?

 

Altius is a diversified , long-Life, natural resource royalties company.

• https://altiusminerals.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=0.336

 

Altius Minerals has acquired Lithium Royalty Corp (LIRC) for $520M ($173M Cash and $347M Altius Shares).  Lithum pricing has bottomed out over the past 2 years and this looks like an opportunistic time to acquire this royalty.

 

https://altiusminerals.com/investor-information/press-releases/altius-announces-definitive-agreement-to-acquire-lithium-royalty-corp

 

[Crip1]

This is just insane

[Redskin212]

If my math is correct FFH's position is valued at over $6 Billion!

Roughly 1/3 of $19.399B market cap.

Yes - just insane

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 minute ago, Redskin212 said:

If my math is correct FFH's position is valued at over $6 Billion!

Roughly 1/3 of $19.399B market cap.

Yes - just insane

 

Definitely sold too early at prices just about $1, but my look thru exposure via Fairfax is significantly larger than my direct position was so I guess all good

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Crip1 said:

This is just insane

The increase in Eurobank’s share price in 2025 has been the #1 single driver of value for Fairfax shareholders this year. It has been quite the move. And there have also been two dividend payments. 

 

[Hoodlum]

1 hour ago, Crip1 said:

This is just insane

the latest jump on this ticker in the US doesn’t seem to correlate with the Greek stock exchange where it has a 12.8B Euro market cap.  Is there any reason why the US ticker got out of sync recently.  
 

Edited December 23, 2025 by Hoodlum

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

the latest jump on this ticker in the US doesn’t seem to correlate with the Greek stock exchange where it has a 12.8B Euro market cap.  Is there any reason why the US ticker got out of sync recently.  
 

They did a reorganization and merged the operating company and holding company together which may have caused an issue.

 

On a separate note, as soon as the reorganization was done, the buyback turned back on again. 

[dartmonkey]

On 12/23/2025 at 10:08 AM, Crip1 said:

This is just insane

The European shares traded in Athens are much more liquid and trade with much higher volume, 5 million shares instead of 500, but they show a similar share price increase since the reorganization in effect since December 12. The company has also restarted its aggressive share repurchases, which may be why the share price has been rising :

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2025 by dartmonkey
removed duplicate image

[Hoodlum]

I noticed that Foran Mining stock is up about 25% in Q4 from $3.89 to current $4.87 Cdn per share.   According to latest share count from Foran Mining after their last stock issuance, Fairfax owns 121.8M shares with a value of $593M CDN ($430M US) that is showing a gain of $120M CDN ($87.5M US) in Q4 ($4.20US/share).  This is starting to become a sizable investment and one to watch in 2026, especially if copper prices start to increase.

 

https://foranmining.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2025-FOM-Mgmt-Information-Circular.pdf

 

Fairfax, who is an “insider” of the Company subscribed for 25,000,000 Offered Shares. Prior to the closing of the First Tranche, Fairfax held 69,088,486 Common Shares representing approximately 17.5% of the then issued and outstanding Common Shares. Following the closing of the First Tranche and as of May 30, 2025, Fairfax holds 90,196,252 Common Shares, representing approximately 18.3% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares prior to completing the Second Tranche.

 

Following closing of the Second Tranche, Fairfax will hold 94,088,486 Common Shares, representing approximately 18.4% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares after giving effect to the Private Placement. Together with Fairfax’s 27,777,778 Non-voting Shares, this would represent 22.6% of the issued and outstanding Shares, after giving effect to the Private Placement.

 

Edited December 23, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Hoodlum]

ORLA share price has rebounded after the sale of shares by Fairfax and hit new all-time highs this week.  If the Fairfax stock price holds or continue to increase by year end (TRS), we will see a sizeable gain (realized and non-realized) from the larger Fairfax investments in Q4.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Viking]

Here is some holiday cheer for Fairfax shareholders. With a week to go in Q4, Fairfax's equity portfolio is up about $900m (intraday Dec 23), with most of the gains in the MTM bucket ($25/share pre-tax). Fairfax's equity portfolio is having an outstanding 2025. 

 

Fairfax is firing on all cylinders - all aspects of the company are performing at a high level. Insurance. Investments. Capital allocation. Total shareholder return in 2025 is about 30%. This is after two back-to-back years of +50% returns. And the stock's valuation is still the cheapest among peers. Nuts! 

 

[Hoodlum]

24 minutes ago, Viking said:

Here is some holiday cheer for Fairfax shareholders. With a week to go in Q4, Fairfax's equity portfolio is up about $900m (intraday Dec 23), with most of the gains in the MTM bucket ($25/share pre-tax). Fairfax's equity portfolio is having an outstanding 2025. 

 

Fairfax is firing on all cylinders - all aspects of the company are performing at a high level. Insurance. Investments. Capital allocation. Total shareholder return in 2025 is about 30%. This is after two back-to-back years of +50% returns. And the stock's valuation is still the cheapest among peers. Nuts! 

 

thanks @Viking for keeping track of the details.  Going into this quarter I had lowered my expectations for earnings from investment gains, as I figured we had a good run already this year and were due for a slow down.  So this has been a very pleasant surprise.  
 

The resource investments such as the Waterous Funds, ORLA Mining, Foran Mining and Altius minerals really show Fairfax’s long term patience along with some great timing.  
 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

thanks @Viking for keeping track of the details.  Going into this quarter I had lowered my expectations for earnings from investment gains, as I figured we had a good run already this year and were due for a slow down.  So this has been a very pleasant surprise.  
 

The resource investments such as the Waterous Funds, ORLA Mining, Foran Mining and Altius minerals really show Fairfax’s long term patience along with some great timing.  

With Fairfax’s equity holdings I think we are benefitting from a couple of things:

• Jockeys: Fairfax is partnering with outstanding CEO’s/founders/entrepreneurs - they have picked the right ones.
• Concentration: Fairfax continues to concentrate its portfolio around its best ideas/jockeys and has been for the past +5 years (buybacks should be included).

Together, this one-two strategy is really juicing the returns of the investment portfolio.
 

What they are doing makes sense… they have a $27 billion equity portfolio (valuing FFH-TRS at notional). And it is quickly growing in size. Fairfax has a small corporate office. 
 

Fairfax is executing exceptionally well these days. They are getting exceptional leverage from how they are investing in equities (the people factor and the unlimited upside factor). Very powerful when it is done well. 

Edited December 23, 2025 by Viking

[KFRCanuk]

3 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

I noticed that Foran Mining stock is up about 25% in Q4 from $3.89 to current $4.87 Cdn per share.   According to latest share count from Foran Mining after their last stock issuance, Fairfax owns 121.8M shares with a value of $593M CDN ($430M US) that is showing a gain of $120M CDN ($87.5M US) in Q4 ($4.20US/share).  This is starting to become a sizable investment and one to watch in 2026, especially if copper prices start to increase.

 

https://foranmining.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2025-FOM-Mgmt-Information-Circular.pdf

 

Fairfax, who is an “insider” of the Company subscribed for 25,000,000 Offered Shares. Prior to the closing of the First Tranche, Fairfax held 69,088,486 Common Shares representing approximately 17.5% of the then issued and outstanding Common Shares. Following the closing of the First Tranche and as of May 30, 2025, Fairfax holds 90,196,252 Common Shares, representing approximately 18.3% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares prior to completing the Second Tranche.

 

Following closing of the Second Tranche, Fairfax will hold 94,088,486 Common Shares, representing approximately 18.4% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares after giving effect to the Private Placement. Together with Fairfax’s 27,777,778 Non-voting Shares, this would represent 22.6% of the issued and outstanding Shares, after giving effect to the Private Placement.

 

 

Probably everyone here knows this but just in case. Sure wish Ensign Energy had the same deal.

 

From September:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/government-of-saskatchewan-to-support-development-of-mci-1.7631913

"Prime Minister Mark Carney has unveiled the list of five projects that he's recommending for approval by the federal government's newly created major project office (MPO), and a copper mine in northern Saskatchewan is one of them."

Edited December 23, 2025 by KFRCanuk

[Viking]

The narrative is Fairfax are not very good equity investors. It can be useful to look at facts (sorry detractors). How have the top 10 publicly traded holdings performed YTD 2025?

• They delivered a total shareholder return of $3.6B, or 53%.

If we add FFH-Total Return Swap:

• They delivered a total shareholder return of $4.4B, or $192 per diluted share (pre-tax).

Yes, that is outstanding performance. Fairfax is firing on all cylinders.

 

Notes:

• The top 10 holdings capture about 40% of Fairfax's $25B (at the end of 2025) equity portfolio.
• This data is not cherry picked - we didn't just include the good stuff.
• The performance is broad based: 7 of 10 holdings are having positive years.
• 6 of 10 holdings are having stellar years, with the lowest performer at 30%.
• The stocks, as a group, are not expensive: the stellar year is not due to 'euphoria'
• Many of the companies on the list are undervalued. 
• Fairfax India is materially undervalued (BIAL is a jewel).
• Currency is shifting from a headwind (strong US$) to a tailwind (weak US$).
• Economic value creation is much higher than what is being reflected in accounting results:  Much of the value gain at Eurobank is not showing up in reported (accounting) results. 

Can we estimate the return being generated of Fairfax's total equity portfolio?

 

Fairfax's equity portfolio finished 2024 with a total value of about $19B. On their own, the top 10 holdings + FFH-TRS have delivered a return of 23% to the total equity portfolio YTD in 2025. Of course the other 60% of holdings are also performing well. When we put the two together, Fairfax has likely generated a return on its total equity portfolio well in excess of 30% in 2025. Fairfax's equity holdings are having an even better year than the outstanding numbers presented here suggest. 

 

Is this a one-year wonder?

 

This is not a one year phenomenon. If I ran this same report for the past 5 years investors would be shocked at how good the results have been. 
 

What explains the outstanding performance?

 

What we are seeing are benefits of the significant work Fairfax has been doing with its equity portfolio since 2018:

• Fixed investment framework (equities): focus on jockey, balance sheet and profitability.
• Dealt with poorly performing legacy holdings (purchased pre-2018)
• New purchases since 2018 have been performing exceptionally well (as a group).
• Concentration - new capital goes to the best ideas.

The power of Fairfax's business model

 

The big benefit of equities over bonds is equities have unlimited upside. The results Fairfax is delivering in 2025 (and the last 5 years) is proof (+30% on $19B equity portfolio). Despite its incredible run the past 5 years, Fairfax's equity portfolio is still cheap (as a group). And it is high quality (management, balance sheet, profitability). This is a great set-up for shareholders.

 

The fantastic news with equities is just one part of the good news story called Fairfax. The company is firing on all cylinders - insurance, investments and capital allocation. 

 

Welcome to new Fairfax - a compounding machine!

 

 

Below is the math

 

Please let me know if you see any errors (I have made one other two over the years).  

 

Edited December 25, 2025 by Viking

[SafetyinNumbers]

5 hours ago, Viking said:

The narrative is Fairfax are not very good equity investors. It can be useful to look at facts (sorry detractors). How have the top 10 publicly traded holdings performed YTD 2025?

• They delivered a total shareholder return of $3.5B, or 52%.

If we add FFH-Total Return Swap:

• They delivered a total shareholder return of $4.4B, or $189 per diluted share (pre-tax).

Yes, that is outstanding performance. Fairfax is firing on all cylinders.

 

Notes:

• The top 10 holdings capture about 40% of Fairfax's $25B (at the end of 2025) equity portfolio.
• This data is not cherry picked - we didn't just include the good stuff.
• The performance is broad based: 6 of 10 holdings are having stellar years (with the smallest gain being 30%).
• The stocks, as a group, are not expensive: the stellar year is not due to 'euphoria'
• Many of the companies on the list are undervalued. 
• Fairfax India is materially undervalued (BIAL is a jewel).
• Currency is shifting from a headwind (strong US$) to a tailwind (weak US$).
• Economic value creation is much higher than what is being reflected in accounting results:  Much of the value gain at Eurobank is not showing up in reported (accounting) results. 

Can we estimate the return being generated of Fairfax's total equity portfolio?

 

Fairfax's equity portfolio finished 2024 with a total value of about $19B. On their own, the top 10 holdings + FFH-TRS have delivered a return of 23% to the total equity portfolio YTD in 2025. Of course the other 60% of holdings are also performing well. When we put the two together, Fairfax has likely generated a return on its total equity portfolio well in excess of 30% in 2025. Fairfax's equity holdings are having an even better year than the outstanding numbers presented here suggest. 

 

Is this a one-year wonder?

 

This is not a one year phenomenon. If I ran this same report for the past 5 years investors would be shocked at how good the results have been. 
 

What explains the outstanding performance?

 

What we are seeing are benefits of the significant work Fairfax has been doing with its equity portfolio since 2018:

• Fixed investment framework (equities): focus on jockey, balance sheet and profitability.
• Dealt with poorly performing legacy holdings (purchased pre-2018)
• New purchases since 2018 have been performing exceptionally well (as a group).
• Concentration - new capital goes to the best ideas.

The power of Fairfax's business model

 

The big benefit of equities over bonds is equities have unlimited upside. The results Fairfax is delivering in 2025 (and the last 5 years) is proof (+30% on $19B equity portfolio). Despite its incredible run the past 5 years, Fairfax's equity portfolio is still cheap (as a group). And it is high quality (management, balance sheet, profitability). This is a great set-up for shareholders.

 

The fantastic news with equities is just one part of the good news story called Fairfax. The company is firing on all cylinders - insurance, investments and capital allocation. 

 

Welcome to new Fairfax - a compounding machine!

 

 

 

Below is the math

 

Please let me know if you see any errors (I have made one other two over the years).  

 

Great analysis as always Viking.

 

It will be interesting to compare these returns to the accounting return. It’s part of what gives me high confidence in forward ROE over the next 5 years. These deferred gains may take years to realize in names like Eurobank meanwhile the accounting return on carrying value remains high enough that ROE gets a big boost at 3:1 leverage. 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Great analysis as always Viking.

 

It will be interesting to compare these returns to the accounting return. It’s part of what gives me high confidence in forward ROE over the next 5 years. These deferred gains may take years to realize in names like Eurobank meanwhile the accounting return on carrying value remains high enough that ROE gets a big boost at 3:1 leverage. 

Great point - and I agree.

 

“If it does not show up in accounting results it did not happen.” Investors/analysts on Fairfax results

This sounds like something Warren Buffett would say (yes, that was my attempt at humour). 

 

I think Fairfax has been building a significant amount of ‘hidden value’ in recent years. Excess of FV over CV is one good example ($2.5B at Sept 30, 2025). But there is much more happening ‘under the hood’. And because of the size and quality of Fairfax’s equity holdings (most of which are not mark to market) it will keep growing - likely materially - in the coming years. 
 

And as you say, Fairfax will surface this value over time. When they do it will be material to earnings. Sigma in Q1 is a good example of what will happen in future years. Except Sigma was small. Some big investment gains are coming. BIAL IPO (via Achorage). Eurobank will be massive (billions). There are more.

 

We already have our first example for 2026: the sale of Eurolife’s life insurance business for $945 million will result in a gain of about $300 million when it closes in Q1. This is an example that was not an anyones radar (not in the excess of FV over CV bucket). 

 

When these gains happen, investors will be surprised. “Who could have known?” they will say. 
 

To your point, economic value getting realized into accounting results will simply drive a higher ROE in the future. 
 

It is such an interesting part of the Fairfax story. Investors/analysts are willfully ignoring something that has already happened and is very important/material.  
 

It’s like when a child covers their eyes to hide - they think they are invisible. (It’s probably not the behaviour you want to see from an investment advisor/professional. But that is effectively what they are doing.)
 

 

Edited December 25, 2025 by Viking

[Redskin212]

not to nick pick but I think you meant $16.90 for Fairfax India closing price not $15.90

 

Edited December 25, 2025 by Redskin212

[Viking]

32 minutes ago, Redskin212 said:

not to nick pick but I think you meant $16.90 for Fairfax India closing price not $15.90

 

@Redskin212, not nit picking. I appreciate you pointing out my error  (my previous post has been updated).

Edited December 25, 2025 by Viking

[Parsad]

23 minutes ago, Redskin212 said:

not to nick pick but I think you meant $16.90 for Fairfax India closing price not $15.90

 

 

4 minutes ago, Viking said:

@Redskin212, not nit picking. I appreciate you pointing out my error

 

Are the three of us the only twats posting on Fairfax on Christmas Eve? 

 

Redskin are the kids asleep?  The Mrs?  

 

Viking, are your kids coming over tomorrow?  The Mrs?

 

I'm sitting here watching A Christmas Carol with a vodka cranberry next to me, while keeping an eye on the site!

 

Merry Christmas fellas!  Cheers!