Fairfax stock positions

[Viking]

Fairfax’s equity portfolio (that I track) increased in market value from December 31, 2024 to February 18, 2025, by about $726 million (pre-tax). The equity portfolio had a total value of about $22.0 billion at February 18, 2025.

 

Included in our estimates is information from Fairfax’s Q4-2024-13F and its year-end earnings news release on February 13, 2025. When Fairfax releases their annual report (March 7th) we will get updates to lots of important information, especially the YE 2024 carrying values of many of the large associate and consolidated equity holdings. 

 

 

Notes:

• The FFH-TRS position is included in the mark to market bucket and at its notional value. The warrants and debentures captured are also included in the mark to market bucket.

The ‘tracker portfolio’ is not an exact match to Fairfax’s actual holdings. It is useful only as a tool to understand the rough change in Fairfax’s equity portfolio (and not the precise change).

 

The ‘tracker portfolio’ does not include the following:

• Any change in value of Digit, Fairfax's publicly traded P/C insurance company in India.

Split of holdings by accounting treatment

 

About 47% of Fairfax’s equity holdings are mark to market - and will fluctuate each quarter with changes in equity markets. The other 53% are Associates and Consolidated holdings. The Sleep Country and Peak Achievement (Bauer) acquisitions closed in Q4. We have included a guess of the carrying value for these two holdings – it will be updated when Fairfax releases its annual report.

 

Over the past couple of years, the share of the mark to market holdings has been shrinking. This means Fairfax's quarterly reported results will be less impacted by volatility in equity markets.

 

 

Split of total gains by accounting treatment

• The total change is an increase of about $726 million = $33/share (pre-tax)
• The mark to market change is an increase of about $452 million = $21/share.

 

What were the big movers in the equity portfolio Q1-YTD?

 

The usual suspects continue to perform very well - Eurobank and FFH-TRS. Fairfax India's stock price has spiked higher to start the new year. Not sure what is up with Blackberry's big move higher. Orla Mining (a gold stock) continued to run higher which is not surprising given the big move in the price of gold. At the same time, after a strong 2-year run higher, stocks in India have been selling off in recent months.

 

 

Excess of fair value over carrying value (not captured in book value)

 

For Associate and Consolidated holdings (in my tracker), the excess of fair value to carrying value is about $1.48 billion pre-tax ($68/share). The 'excess of FV to CV’ has been materially increasing in recent years. This is economic value that has been created by Fairfax that is not captured in book value – it is a good example of how book value is understated at Fairfax.

 

Excess of FV over CV:

• Associates:           $838 million
• Consolidated:       $644 million

Equity Tracker Spreadsheet explained:

 

We have separated holdings by accounting treatment:

• Mark to market
• Associates – equity accounted
• Consolidated
• Other Holdings – total return swaps and warrants/debentures

The value of each holding is calculated by multiplying the share price by the number of shares. All holdings are tracked in US$, so non-US holdings have their values adjusted for currency.

 

This spreadsheet contains errors. It is updated as new and better information becomes available.

 

PS: I have attached the updated version of my Excel workbook at the bottom of this post. 

 

 

 

Fairfax Feb 18 2025.xlsx

Edited February 19 by Viking

[glider3834]

11 hours ago, Viking said:

Fairfax’s equity portfolio (that I track) increased in market value from December 31, 2024 to February 18, 2025, by about $726 million (pre-tax). The equity portfolio had a total value of about $22.0 billion at February 18, 2025.

 

Included in our estimates is information from Fairfax’s Q4-2024-13F and its year-end earnings news release on February 13, 2025. When Fairfax releases their annual report (March 7th) we will get updates to lots of important information, especially the YE 2024 carrying values of many of the large associate and consolidated equity holdings. 

 

 

Notes:

• The FFH-TRS position is included in the mark to market bucket and at its notional value. The warrants and debentures captured are also included in the mark to market bucket.

The ‘tracker portfolio’ is not an exact match to Fairfax’s actual holdings. It is useful only as a tool to understand the rough change in Fairfax’s equity portfolio (and not the precise change).

 

The ‘tracker portfolio’ does not include the following:

• Any change in value of Digit, Fairfax's publicly traded P/C insurance company in India.

Split of holdings by accounting treatment

 

About 47% of Fairfax’s equity holdings are mark to market - and will fluctuate each quarter with changes in equity markets. The other 53% are Associates and Consolidated holdings. The Sleep Country and Peak Achievement (Bauer) acquisitions closed in Q4. We have included a guess of the carrying value for these two holdings – it will be updated when Fairfax releases its annual report.

 

Over the past couple of years, the share of the mark to market holdings has been shrinking. This means Fairfax's quarterly reported results will be less impacted by volatility in equity markets.

 

 

Split of total gains by accounting treatment

• The total change is an increase of about $726 million = $33/share (pre-tax)
• The mark to market change is an increase of about $452 million = $21/share.

 

What were the big movers in the equity portfolio Q1-YTD?

 

The usual suspects continue to perform very well - Eurobank and FFH-TRS. Fairfax India's stock price has spiked higher to start the new year. Not sure what is up with Blackberry's big move higher. Orla Mining (a gold stock) continued to run higher which is not surprising given the big move in the price of gold. At the same time, after a strong 2-year run higher, stocks in India have been selling off in recent months.

 

 

Excess of fair value over carrying value (not captured in book value)

 

For Associate and Consolidated holdings (in my tracker), the excess of fair value to carrying value is about $1.48 billion pre-tax ($68/share). The 'excess of FV to CV’ has been materially increasing in recent years. This is economic value that has been created by Fairfax that is not captured in book value – it is a good example of how book value is understated at Fairfax.

 

Excess of FV over CV:

• Associates:           $838 million
• Consolidated:       $644 million

Equity Tracker Spreadsheet explained:

 

We have separated holdings by accounting treatment:

• Mark to market
• Associates – equity accounted
• Consolidated
• Other Holdings – total return swaps and warrants/debentures

The value of each holding is calculated by multiplying the share price by the number of shares. All holdings are tracked in US$, so non-US holdings have their values adjusted for currency.

 

This spreadsheet contains errors. It is updated as new and better information becomes available.

 

PS: I have attached the updated version of my Excel workbook at the bottom of this post. 

 

 

 

Fairfax Feb 18 2025.xlsx 342.72 kB · 2 downloads

cheers viking we can update John Keells to 24.3% now they have exercised the convertible 

 

 

https://keells.com/resource/reports/investor-presentations/investor-presentation-Q3-2025.pdf

[mananainvesting]

$ESI.TO - Bison Interests (Josh) on their new position in Ensign. I am long as well.

 

 

 

 

 

[Viking]

On 2/19/2025 at 8:19 PM, glider3834 said:

cheers viking we can update John Keells to 24.3% now they have exercised the convertible 

 

 

https://keells.com/resource/reports/investor-presentations/investor-presentation-Q3-2025.pdf

 

@glider3834 I appreciate the heads up. Board members, please let me know if you see any other items that can be updated. Your input helps me greatly in keeping the summary accurate/up to date. 

Edited February 21 by Viking

[nwoodman]

Eurobank results are out. Impressive!  Maybe this deserves to trade closer to €4 than my PT of €3.  
 

https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/enimerosi-ependuton/enimerosi-metoxon-eurobank/oikonomika-apotelesmata-part-01/2025/fy-2024/4q2024-results-pr-en.pdf

 

FY2024 Key Financial Highlights:

• EPS: €0.39

• Net Profit: €1,448m (Adjusted Net Profit: €1,484m)

• Return on Tangible Book Value (RoTBV): 18.5%

• Tangible Book Value (TBV) per share: €2.31 (up from €2.07 in 2023)

• 50% Payout Ratio:

• Cash Dividend: €0.105 per share

• Share Buyback: €288m

• Loan & Deposit Growth:

• Performing loans grew by €3.9bn (+10%)

• Deposits increased by €6.2bn

• Net Interest Income: €2,507m (+15.3% YoY)

• Net Fee & Commission Income: €666m (+22.4% YoY)

• Total Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAD): 18.5%

• CET1 Ratio: 15.7%

• Non-Performing Exposures (NPE) Ratio: 2.9% (down from 3.5%)

• Provisions over NPEs: 88.4%

 

Regional Contribution:

• SEE (Southeastern Europe) Contribution to Profits: 48%

• Bulgaria: Adjusted Net Profit of €208m (+9.6% YoY)

• Eurobank Cyprus: Adjusted Net Profit of €210m (+5.1% YoY)

• Hellenic Bank: Contribution of €275m

• SEE Core Pre-Provision Income: €800m (+53.1% YoY)

• SEE Core Operating Profit: €739m (+58.9% YoY)

 

2025-2027 Business Plan:

• Sustainable RoTBV Target: ~15%

• SEE Contribution to Core Profit: Expected to increase to 55% by 2027

• Cumulative Payout: Expected to double vs. 2022-2024

• Loan Growth Target: ~7.5% CAGR

• Wealth Management Growth Target: ~15% CAGR

• TBV per Share Growth: Expected to increase by ~40% by 2027

 

Key Financial Targets for 2025-2027:

Metric	2025 Target	2027 Target
Core Operating Profit	~€1.7bn	~€1.9bn
RoTBV	~15.0%	~15.0%
TBV per Share	~€2.55	~€3.20
Payout Ratio	≥50%	≥50%
CET1 (post-payout)	~15.8%	~16.0%

Key Takeaways:

• Eurobank exceeded expectations in FY2024, delivering strong earnings and robust growth in loans and deposits.

• The 50% payout ratio aligns with the bank’s commitment to rewarding shareholders.

• The 2025-2027 business plan focuses on sustained profitability, regional expansion, and increased shareholder returns.

• The integration of Hellenic Bank and acquisitions like CNP Insurance are expected to drive further growth.

Edited Thursday at 10:30 PM by nwoodman

[nwoodman]

Brief MS coverage of the results.  They increased their PT to €2.77.  Pretty conservative IMHO but consistent with European peers.  Given Eurobanks management and growth prospects I think comps are not that useful.  

EUROBANK_20250227_1758.pdf

Edited Thursday at 09:34 PM by nwoodman

[Viking]

3 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Eurobank results are out. Impressive!  Maybe this deserves to trade closer to €4 than my PT of €3.  
 

https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/enimerosi-ependuton/enimerosi-metoxon-eurobank/oikonomika-apotelesmata-part-01/2025/fy-2024/4q2024-results-pr-en.pdf

 

FY2024 Key Financial Highlights:

• EPS: €0.39

• Net Profit: €1,448m (Adjusted Net Profit: €1,484m)

• Return on Tangible Book Value (RoTBV): 18.5%

• Tangible Book Value (TBV) per share: €2.31 (up from €2.07 in 2023)

• 50% Payout Ratio:

• Cash Dividend: €0.105 per share

• Share Buyback: €288m

• Loan & Deposit Growth:

• Performing loans grew by €3.9bn (+10%)

• Deposits increased by €6.2bn

• Net Interest Income: €2,507m (+15.3% YoY)

• Net Fee & Commission Income: €666m (+22.4% YoY)

• Total Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAD): 18.5%

• CET1 Ratio: 15.7%

• Non-Performing Exposures (NPE) Ratio: 2.9% (down from 3.5%)

• Provisions over NPEs: 88.4%

 

Regional Contribution:

• SEE (Southeastern Europe) Contribution to Profits: 48%

• Bulgaria: Adjusted Net Profit of €208m (+9.6% YoY)

• Eurobank Cyprus: Adjusted Net Profit of €210m (+5.1% YoY)

• Hellenic Bank: Contribution of €275m

• SEE Core Pre-Provision Income: €800m (+53.1% YoY)

• SEE Core Operating Profit: €739m (+58.9% YoY)

 

2025-2027 Business Plan:

• Sustainable RoTBV Target: ~15%

• SEE Contribution to Core Profit: Expected to increase to 55% by 2027

• Cumulative Payout: Expected to double vs. 2022-2024

• Loan Growth Target: ~7.5% CAGR

• Wealth Management Growth Target: ~15% CAGR

• TBV per Share Growth: Expected to increase by ~40% by 2027

 

Key Financial Targets for 2025-2027:

Metric	2025 Target	2027 Target
Core Operating Profit	~€1.7bn	~€1.9bn
RoTBV	~15.0%	~15.0%
TBV per Share	~€2.55	~€3.20
Payout Ratio	≥50%	≥50%
CET1 (post-payout)	~15.8%	~16.0%

Key Takeaways:

• Eurobank exceeded expectations in FY2024, delivering strong earnings and robust growth in loans and deposits.

• The 50% payout ratio aligns with the bank’s commitment to rewarding shareholders.

• The 2025-2027 business plan focuses on sustained profitability, regional expansion, and increased shareholder returns.

• The integration of Hellenic Bank and acquisitions like CNP Insurance are expected to drive further growth.

 

@nwoodman , I agree... what an exceptional year. Its interesting... over a 12 month period (July 2024 to July 2025), Eurobank will have 'provided' Fairfax with about $450 million in proceeds ($250 million in dividends and $200 million from sale of shares - rough math). Fairfax's equity investments are increasingly becoming significant sources of cash for Fairfax. That is an important development. 

 

The Eurobank management team is best-in-class. One of the things I really like is they underpromise and over-deliver. Below is the slide for 2024. The middle column is what they promised at the start of the year. The column to the right is what they delivered. 

• https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/enimerosi-ependuton/enimerosi-metoxon-eurobank/oikonomika-apotelesmata-part-01/2025/fy-2024/4q2024-results-presentation.pdf

 

 

Edited Friday at 12:50 AM by Viking

[nwoodman]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

The Eurobank management team is best-in-class. One of the things I really like is they underpromise and over-deliver. Below is the slide for 2024. The middle column is what they promised at the start of the year. The column to the right is what they delivered. 

This is really important, and I was thinking exactly that on my dog-walk this morning.  For them to forward forecast 15% returns on Tangible Book, they must be pretty confident in something a little higher.  Also means there was no skeleton’s in Hellenic’s closet.  Well played Eurobank team.

[Hoodlum]

I found it interesting that RBC posted a small writeup on AGT Foods this week.  I wonder if Fairfax is considering an IPO at some point after taking it private 6 years ago.  AGT had $3B in revenue last year.

 

https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/food-first-how-agriculture-can-lead-a-new-era-for-canadian-exports/

 

How to be a global champion

AGT Food and Ingredients—The value of processing clusters

Pulses and plant-based product supplier exports to more than 100 countries.
Primary markets: Türkiye, Algeria, Iraq and the U.S.
Growth markets: India, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.

• Export strategy:
  • Its ability to handle and process high volumes of pulses grown in close proximity to processing facilities in western Canada has boosted its export ambitions.
  • AGT has an integrated supply chain from farm gate to global distribution, and has expanded its ownership into export-oriented packaged foods and value-added processing infrastructure and bulk and containerized freight handling and transportation.
  • International business has also been driven by expanding offices and processing capacity in Türkiye, Kazakhstan, United Kingdom, Australia, Europe, U.S., South Africa, and India.
     
• Growth strategy:
  • Acquisitions and new capacity to expand processing within production clusters have enabled AGT to become a global exporter of value-added pulse and durum wheat food products. It has also positioned AGT to go from a buyer and exporter of commodities to retail products with over 21 facilities across Western Canada.
  • AGT is investing and engaged in research and development to create novel products and processing systems.
     

Edited Friday at 12:52 PM by Hoodlum

[Viking]

Eurobank is turning into a very good investment for Fairfax. It has increased in value by about $2.3b over the past 10 years (with all of the return coming in the last 4 years). More importantly, Eurobank is poised to grow TBV at +15% in the coming years. It has a stellar management team.

 

Yes, my total return estimate is calculated at a very high level (like counting the 2025 dividend payment which hasn't happened yet). Given all the moving parts, I am simply trying to find a way to evaluate how the investment has performed. Eurobank is a great example of the pivot of Fairfax's equity holdings from 'old Fairfax' to 'new Fairfax.' Eurobank always had a good management team. They needed (and got) external help:

1. Greece elected a pro business government - to 2 terms.
2. Global central banks ended zero interest rate experiment. 

The result has been magic for Fairfax shareholders over the past 4 years.

 

Eurobank is Fairfax's largest equity holding, with a MV of $3 billion. If it performs strongly that bodes well for the return will generate on its total equity portfolio in the coming years.

 

 

Edited Friday at 06:10 PM by Viking

[dartmonkey]

Quote

 

Yes, my total return estimate is calculated at a very high level (like counting the 2025 dividend payment which hasn't happened yet). Given all the moving parts, I am simply trying to find a way to evaluate how the investment has performed. Eurobank is a great example of the pivot of Fairfax's equity holdings from 'old Fairfax' to 'new Fairfax.' Eurobank always had a good management team. They needed (and got) external help:

1. Greece elected a pro business government - to 2 terms.
2. Global central banks ended zero interest rate experiment. 

The result has been magic for Fairfax shareholders over the past 4 years.

 

Eurobank is Fairfax's largest equity holding, with a MV of $3 billion. If it performs strongly that bodes well for the return will generate on its total equity portfolio in the coming years.

 

 

 

It certainly has been a wonderful investment, after a long slow start, but a 10-y CAGR of about 11% is great when you're investing other people's money (float)!

 

I think the market has been slow to recognize all the good things happening at Eurobank, and I'm amazed the stock is not up more, after the stellar earnings announcement. They are now trading at 6.6x last year's earnings, when we know that the big acquistion of another 37.5% of Hellenic Bank in November, and, soon, the remaining 6.5%, is going to boost 2025 earnings substantially, apart from the underlying growth in Eurobank itself. 

 

My one quibble is that you can't count the $129m future dividend, which is already baked into the present share price. This is not material to your estimate, but I believe the total return should be $2342-$129=$2213. Since the July 2024 dividend and the forced January 2025 share sale are both recent, the timing of these returns is not material but ideally, the total return should be adjusted for the timing of the different components of the return stream, and this will become material as Eurobank continues to issue dividends over the coming years. 

[Viking]

5 hours ago, dartmonkey said:

My one quibble is that you can't count the $129m future dividend, which is already baked into the present share price. This is not material to your estimate, but I believe the total return should be $2342-$129=$2213. Since the July 2024 dividend and the forced January 2025 share sale are both recent, the timing of these returns is not material but ideally, the total return should be adjusted for the timing of the different components of the return stream, and this will become material as Eurobank continues to issue dividends over the coming years. 

@dartmonkey , great point. Thanks for pointing out my mistake. Much appreciated (as that is how I learn). 

[nwoodman]

On 2/28/2025 at 11:50 PM, Hoodlum said:

I found it interesting that RBC posted a small writeup on AGT Foods this week.  I wonder if Fairfax is considering an IPO at some point after taking it private 6 years ago.  AGT had $3B in revenue last year.
 

Thanks @Hoodlum for pointing this out.  It is an intriguing possibility.  

 

In pulling together some notes (attached) on AGT, it was not lost on me that they privatised AGT at pretty much the lows.  It is a much better business today, and I wouldn't be surprised if margins improved due to some of their moves up the value chain.  Apart from the apparent value investing bias to these ag-companies, I wonder if Fairfax finds something thematically appealing.  In the notes, I have tried to touch on this but haven't quite figured out whether there is an angle they see that I am missing.  I guess they are long life and consistent with the 100-year company thesis, bottom rung of Maslow's hierarchy etc

AGT Foods Overview.pdf

[cwericb]

8 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Thanks @Hoodlum for pointing this out.  It is an intriguing possibility.  

 

In pulling together some notes (attached) on AGT, it was not lost on me that they privatised AGT at pretty much the lows.  It is a much better business today, and I wouldn't be surprised if margins improved due to some of their moves up the value chain.  Apart from the apparent value investing bias to these ag-companies, I wonder if Fairfax finds something thematically appealing.  In the notes, I have tried to touch on this but haven't quite figured out whether there is an angle they see that I am missing.  I guess they are long life and consistent with the 100-year company thesis, bottom rung of Maslow's hierarchy etc

AGT Foods Overview.pdf 367.7 kB · 16 downloads

 

That PDF is well worth reading and it gives the reader an appreciation for some of the types of innovative companies that Fairfax has under its wing. Brett Horne should be reading this stuff before he voices his opinions on Fairfax. 

 

AGT's website: https://www.agtfoods.com/

 

AGT's Solieos Fertilizer:

https://soileos.com/

Edited Sunday at 02:57 PM by cwericb

[Hoodlum]

8 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Thanks @Hoodlum for pointing this out.  It is an intriguing possibility.  

 

In pulling together some notes (attached) on AGT, it was not lost on me that they privatised AGT at pretty much the lows.  It is a much better business today, and I wouldn't be surprised if margins improved due to some of their moves up the value chain.  Apart from the apparent value investing bias to these ag-companies, I wonder if Fairfax finds something thematically appealing.  In the notes, I have tried to touch on this but haven't quite figured out whether there is an angle they see that I am missing.  I guess they are long life and consistent with the 100-year company thesis, bottom rung of Maslow's hierarchy etc

AGT Foods Overview.pdf 367.7 kB · 22 downloads

thanks @nwoodman for putting that together.  I noticed that FCL paused the Canola crush facility in January due to political uncertainties 

 

https://www.fcl.crs/news-reports/news/article/FCL-pauses-projects-related-to-proposed-Integrated-Agriculture-Complex

 

Also, the rail acquisition by GCM Grosvenor which was expected to close in late q4/q1, seems to be hung up at the government approval stage. The optics would look very bad if the Canadian government would approve this right now.  So it would not surprise me to see this get cancelled or delayed. 
 

[gfp]

8 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Thanks @Hoodlum for pointing this out.  It is an intriguing possibility.  

 

In pulling together some notes (attached) on AGT, it was not lost on me that they privatised AGT at pretty much the lows.  It is a much better business today, and I wouldn't be surprised if margins improved due to some of their moves up the value chain.  Apart from the apparent value investing bias to these ag-companies, I wonder if Fairfax finds something thematically appealing.  In the notes, I have tried to touch on this but haven't quite figured out whether there is an angle they see that I am missing.  I guess they are long life and consistent with the 100-year company thesis, bottom rung of Maslow's hierarchy etc

AGT Foods Overview.pdf 367.7 kB · 19 downloads

 

Thanks for putting this together (and sharing it with us!) - a very comprehensive case study on AGT!