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Your 2017 Best Ideas

BG2008

By BG2008
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Green King Contributor

Green King

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Having your purchasing power eroded by high transaction costs is not obviously better than having it eroded by inflation. I suppose it depends whether you are using it as a store of value or a currency.

 

I didn't know inflation was 400% in the past year.

Aberhound Newbie

Aberhound

Posted
Posted

I sold all my tax free savings account stocks in January and bought Bitcoin then added all new savings to Bitcoin and Ethereum since then mostly whenever there were big dips.

 

Wow.  I didn't even come close to going all-in like that.  I'd have to go and figure it out, buy I've probably invested about $10K total in my entire basket of cryptocurrencies in the last 2 years, maybe a little less.  That small amount is in the 6-figures now. Had I done what you did, I'd be retiring now.

 

 

 

If you guys don't mind-

 

- What are both of your thoughts on cryptos going forward?  Which specific cryptos are you most bullish on?

- How are you storing your crypto assets?  I have been holding btc, eth, and lc but I keep them in coinbase which I understand isn't without substantial risk.  Moving outside of coinbase seems somewhat complicated and messy

 

I store my cryptos on Nano Ledger S and I am considering switiching to Xapo now that the amounts are getting bigger. I am also learning new password tricks. Basically you come up with at least 4 random words and that is your string. My computer guy explains that it takes advantage of human strength while to a computer it has high difficulty if the words are random. I had to stop using password database on my phone as MacAfee explains that phones might have hacks which record your screens. I do nothing on my phone and only interface the trading on a wired LAN never wireless.

 

The specific crypto I am bullish on is EtherParty whose crowdsale is in days. They make smart contracts easy and the system is working and I met the CEO Kevin who is very smart, connected and capable and seems well able to lead a team of top programmers, many of who are multi-millionaires now. I consider it a form of cat herding so I admire such talent. The system is up an running and I saw demonstration of a working sport bet system and ICOs which took 2 minutes to put up on the Ethereum blockchain. One law firm is using their enterprise version to put all their legal precedents into smart contracts so they will earn subscriptions. I see strong network effects as I don't know others who draft contracts for clients then turn around and pay royalties to the client who paid when the same or similar contracts are sold to others. EP will therefore quickly amass the best selection of smart contracts and every smart contract will require the EP tokens as fuel. Prices are in USD so like BTC the coins are transactional and useful and to those users they don't care about the price. Like BTC there is limited supply but 50x greater at 1B but this supply will be used up as fuel and speculators like me will hoard so supply will diminish. Remember all the participants in EP watched their ETH increase 30-100 fold and many regret selling too early so I expect EP itself and its insiders to hoard. Their incentive is to make the EP to be super useful with a decreasing cost of use in USD through volume to create the strongest network effect possible. Then you borrow against the EP tokens instead of spending them. Companies that use smart contracts will have an incentive to buy EP early so their cost in terms of what they paid will be lower while the more they buy, driving up price the more their competitors will have to pay. Early adopters will lock in a massive competitive advantage with the more they buy and hoard, the greater the advantage. I like to hold assets with rising demand and shrinking supply and I see massive use. One market for instance is for gamers so they can do smart contracts to trade virtual assets etc..

 

Between BTC and ETH I prefer ETH until the hard fork when proof of stake is introduced. That will make holding ETH pay a return when you stake the tokens which many speculators will do. EP will also contribute to ETH demand initially. Long term I prefer BTC as the more decentralized the safer from having the supply increased and with the BCH bitcoin cash token you have two similar competing coins which will drive innovation faster by competition. I think that is likely why Jiwan supported its creation to improve the competitiveness of BTC and BCH as against ETH and others. EP will soon work with BTC as well through a deal with RSK. Legal contracts on BTC via RSK look to my programmer to be more secure as compared to ETH so long term I believe the legal community will prefer the more secure smart contracts once that is understood.

 

My overall thesis is that cryptos are a tool of the people behind the curtain to further weaken nation states for their agenda leading to one world government. Cryptos will eliminate all banks who fail to adapt to cryptos which will be most of them. And worsening demographics due to the poison everywhere means that the pension promises will never be honoured except by increased mortality. So nation states will have ever greater difficulty to get their banks to buy their government bonds, the last of their 3 ways of getting money. (We are already taxed to the gills and we have given up the money printing power). So cryptos will make it possible for a few to amass great wealth and governments will learn how to tax it as their new way to continue the growth of the Leviathan state. Cryptos track every transaction so it is the perfect taxation money making scheme. You pluck fewer feathers more often with a rapidly expanding flock so government will be the primary beneficiary from crypto but since this type of taxation is only possible on the super-state level nation states will not enjoy this benefit (watch for the formation of 10 super-states for this reason). BTC to $100K will further this agenda more quickly as it is a powerful incentive to save instead of spending and it will attack the weakest currencies most and the USD least (USD has the only effective massive capital pool which can absorb the vast wealth of everyone so there is no where else to go and the USD companies are the best positioned to benefit from increasing digitalization of the unbanked masses). (Just remember when the USD crypto comes out and you live in the US empire switch to the USD crypto ie buy the crypto for appropriate super-state you live in). Cryptos will drive rapid improvements in computing power and soon will also drive rapid decrease in the cost of electricity. The latter occurs because the 10 super-states will compete to see which faction will end up in control of the one world government (actually it is more likely the factions doing the fighting will be the corporations instead of the governments to compete except to enable their corporations to dominate as the fighting will be done by non-poisoned scientists, technologists and thinkers, chipped soldiers, AI and robots) but in the age of super-weapons that competition will be mostly a technological race. Notice the US bill to allow private sector to exploit and own space resources. If you harvest a $1T asteroid you had better have your own super-weapons to protect it. The bill would not be tabled unless there was some amazing technology available to US firms. Finally the discoveries since WWII will be utilized, at least by the US firms given access, instead of being suppressed. For instance, Boeing will finally get to use their ion engines. Accordingly I agree with one estimate that the crypto economy will end up 20X the size of the current economy. Many new businesses are possible and benefit from the blockchain enabled trust relationships so look for 20 new Amazons for every Amazon, Google etc.. Trust is a key strength of Western Civilization and will now be available to everyone. (Our sole remaining advantage will be reason and rule of law, both which seems to be increasingly lacking (sadly, also on CBC radio). It is a pleasure to find reason on this board.

kdk77 Newbie

kdk77

Posted
Posted

Best idea for me currently is doing nothing.  Cash and Berkshire.

 

I am very ignorant about Bit coin but when crowds are in a mania, they will come up with perfectly sounding reasons for doing what they are doing.

rb Newbie

rb

Posted
Posted

Having your purchasing power eroded by high transaction costs is not obviously better than having it eroded by inflation. I suppose it depends whether you are using it as a store of value or a currency.

I think you're pretty on point here. A currency is a store of value. Bit coin is not - so not much of a currency. But if people want to trade baseball cards, who am i to stop them.

EricSchleien Contributor

EricSchleien

Posted
Posted

 

LOL, in other news the CEO of Smith-Corona said word processing is a scam. And he's firing anyone who buys a computer, because they're stupid.

 

So funny. My very first business partner, his father's company owned 100% of smith-corona ;)

rkbabang Mentor

rkbabang

Posted
Posted

 

LOL, in other news the CEO of Smith-Corona said word processing is a scam. And he's firing anyone who buys a computer, because they're stupid.

 

So funny. My very first business partner, his father's company owned 100% of smith-corona ;)

 

I used to use a Smith-Corona to do my book reports in middle school and high school.  I had a Commodore 64 since I was 10yrs old, but I didn't have a printer until I got my 1st PC when I was a junior in high school.  My Smith-Corona had the correction tape which was like magic, it could erase your errors!

 

 

Sharad Newbie

Sharad

Posted
Posted

I'll stick with the ones I selected in the previous "Your 2017 Best Ideas" topic that was made in January 2017:

 

NVO - Novo Nordisk (still cheap compared to their long term average, peers and return to shareholder perspective, with impressive ROA in the 40% range);

XMF.A (TSX) - Manulife split share (thinly traded);

BPE (TSX) - Brightpath Early Learning: bought out by Ontario Teachers' Pension subsidiary for 70% premium to January 2017 price;

CET - Cathedral Energy because they will make lots of money for the equipment they provide to shale other land based oil producers.

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/your-2017-best-ideas/msg285587/#msg285587

orthopa Explorer

orthopa

Posted
Posted

My best ideas are still V and PM. Neither is cheap but have held both a long time and like the next 5-10 years for both. Otherwise just building cash.

 

In regards to the bitcoin discussion haven't the greatest investors of all time said things such " if you cant describe your investment in a short paragraph", "if you cant draw it with a crayon" etc etc. I'm completely ignorant to the entire discussion and not calling those involved wrong but it seems like such a terribly complicated investment. Often on the board people can have large differences in opinion on value but not so much of an opinion on what they are actually investing in and what the function of the investment is.  I would have a very hard time putting significant money into an idea that others view the value of so different. Is it a currency, a store of value, a technology, a means of privacy, etc, etc? Not sure that this is opaque as the "black box" that banks were during and after the GFC but it maybe close. Good luck to those involved. If this is the future and Im this ignorant to all of this Im f*cked.

SharperDingaan Mentor

SharperDingaan

Posted
Posted

My best ideas are still V and PM. Neither is cheap but have held both a long time and like the next 5-10 years for both. Otherwise just building cash.

 

In regards to the bitcoin discussion haven't the greatest investors of all time said things such " if you cant describe your investment in a short paragraph", "if you cant draw it with a crayon" etc etc. I'm completely ignorant to the entire discussion and not calling those involved wrong but it seems like such a terribly complicated investment. Often on the board people can have large differences in opinion on value but not so much of an opinion on what they are actually investing in and what the function of the investment is.  I would have a very hard time putting significant money into an idea that others view the value of so different. Is it a currency, a store of value, a technology, a means of privacy, etc, etc? Not sure that this is opaque as the "black box" that banks were during and after the GFC but it maybe close. Good luck to those involved. If this is the future and Im this ignorant to all of this Im f*cked.

 

I will have a short on-line university course out in the next 4-6 weeks, that is designed with very much this in mind.

Amongst other things the expectation is that it will take the learner through the block chain due diligence process from vision through to implementation, demonstrate via a case study - implementation of clear token in a charity application; demonstrate via a case study - implementation of colored token in a bond issuance application, and conclude with a project where the learner tries it out him/herself under guidance.

 

If you then wish to do it 'for real' afterwards ...

I know a great consultant who can help you - at a very reasonable rate net of a COBF 'friends and family' discount  ;)

 

SD

 

 

John Hjorth Veteran

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted

I have launched a crypto hedge fund recently.  I don't hold any stocks, bonds or any other regular assets. I only own crypto currencies in the fund. If anyone is interested, please PM me.

 

Roughly Right

 

Not many clients around here to pick up, I suppose?

roughlyright Newbie

roughlyright

Posted
Posted

 

This is funny  ;D ;D  I am getting old and my memory fails me. Who is this company that needed tax-payer funded bailout to tune of 25 billion dollars ? I don't remember Bitcoin network putting their hand-out asking for a bailout so far.

 

I am a big fan of Andreas Antonopoulous  who is a network security engineer.  He explains in detail in his books about what makes bitcoin Antifragile. I think our beloved Jamie here is feeling, what Andreas calls "Cognitive dissonance". People who are used to centralized systems have difficulty in understanding, when there is no trusted third party on the network.  Here I quote from Andreas Antonopoulos.

 

On bitcoin and other open crypto-currency networks, however, bad actors on the network are inconsequential because the trust model does not depend on excluding them. The bad actors are not trusted any more than any other user of the network and their access does not grant them any special rights. The trust model depends on computation and the demonstration of computation through proof-of-work. As long as good actors form the majority of the computation used for forming consensus, the bad actors cannot change the trusted ledger.

 

 

It will take time for the idea of decentralized trust through computation to become a part of mainstream consciousness, and until then, the idea creates cognitive dissonance for those accustomed to centralized trust systems. With thousands of years of practical use, centralized systems of trust are accepted unconditionally and without much thought as the only model of trust.

 

Until recently, decentralized trust at scale was not possible. Now that it is, it conflicts with most people’s understanding of the world. That’s why when you explain crypto-currencies to people, they immediately search for the central actor or authority that establishes the trust, establishes the value or has the control: “Yes, I see it is decentralized, but who runs it? Who controls it? Can’t someone take over?” These questions reveal the context of trust centralization, which is deeply embedded in our culture and our thinking. We’ve been taught to fear the bad actor and look for self-interested “trusted” individuals; we no longer have to do that.

 

 

Gradually, decentralized trust will be accepted as a new and effective trust model. We have seen this evolution of understanding before — on the Internet. The Internet led to the decentralization of authority-of-opinion, by making it possible for anyone to be a publisher without a multi-story building-sized printing press. At first, this challenged our expectations and forced us to reconsider the source of authority. If anyone could have an opinion and publish it, how can we tell which opinions are important? We had used the centralization of printing presses and distribution and the purchasing of ink by the barrel as a proxy metric of authority, to help us filter our news and opinions. Suddenly, we were thrust into a new world in which these anchors of authority were swept away and each opinion had to be judged by its merits, not the size of the publisher’s press.

Now, we must rethink the source of trust in networks and the source of monetary value of currencies, disconnected from the issuer, without a central authority and without the need for access control. The trust model has already changed, but it will take a while for society to accept that a new model is possible.

Aberhound Newbie

Aberhound

Posted
Posted

 

LOL, in other news the CEO of Smith-Corona said word processing is a scam. And he's firing anyone who buys a computer, because they're stupid.

 

So funny. My very first business partner, his father's company owned 100% of smith-corona ;)

 

I used to use a Smith-Corona to do my book reports in middle school and high school.  I had a Commodore 64 since I was 10yrs old, but I didn't have a printer until I got my 1st PC when I was a junior in high school.  My Smith-Corona had the correction tape which was like magic, it could erase your errors!

 

Perhaps with NSA we should all go back to Smith Corona. One client told me of a meeting with a CEO of a shipping company and he asked him how he dealt with the competition knowing where his ships were going etc. For better security the shipowner issued his instructions for the ships with an old typewriter no doubt a self correcting Smith-Corona.

rkbabang Mentor

rkbabang

Posted
Posted

Perhaps with NSA we should all go back to Smith Corona. One client told me of a meeting with a CEO of a shipping company and he asked him how he dealt with the competition knowing where his ships were going etc. For better security the shipowner issued his instructions for the ships with an old typewriter no doubt a self correcting Smith-Corona.

 

I've never understood why encryption wasn't more common on the internet.  It is rare that anyone encrypts their important files (or their whole hard drives) or emails.  It seems most people can't be bothered.  Probably the "I have nothing to hide" syndrome.  But there are ways to store data securely and communicate securely in text or voice.  It takes some effort, but less effort than going back to typewriters I think.

 

Even with Wikileaks, Snowden, etc, I still don't think the average person realizes the extent to which they are being watched and tracked.

 

John Hjorth Veteran

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted

I'll stick with the ones I selected in the previous "Your 2017 Best Ideas" topic that was made in January 2017:

 

... NVO - Novo Nordisk (still cheap compared to their long term average, peers and return to shareholder perspective, with impressive ROA in the 40% range); ...

 

No post from me so far in this topic about the topic title, but I have to agree with you here, Sharad. However it's not for everyone to be invested in NVO. Basically, it's GARP investing, and a very bumpy ride ... - at least it has been so for the last few years. I certainly agree with you using a long term lens.

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