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Green King

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Everything posted by Green King

  1. I haven't looked at Canadians markers much. Would like some recommendations of divided stocks to look at. Cheers
  2. Sounds interesting I might start by going through the report Just FYI M* is changing the analyst on DBX. The old report is still available, but they dropped some parts like value estimate (that may be irrelevant for you anyway). Do you have the old report?
  3. I can understand that. I am thinking about framing it more see this like a pile of bank loans you can not know what's there for sure. It's more about taking a look at the big ones or a sample of them to see if it is worth a bet. With the margin of safety given by the discount. with the underlying assumption, they are not all shit. Or to see if there are enough red flags to pass on the whole thing. On my first look, there were too many flags so I passed. I put it up here mostly with the intention to see the rigor in research Muddy water produces. I ways thought these things were low value i want to get an understanding of a sample.
  4. Here is the link for the straw poll https://www.strawpoll.me/20549293 The votes seems to not be refecting the interest. Cheers Jason
  5. https://condensed.substack.com/p/choose-your-own-research-adventure?r=7401s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy I wrote a short description of a few ideas i want to look into. Please check out my first look analysis and vote for the ones you want to see. $DBX Dropbox Inc High return on brain damage, possible long term payoff $BUR Burford Capital Limited High Return on popcorn, low return on brain damage $ING ING Group, Low return on brain damage, maybe grow my edge technology $EB Eventbrite Inc High return on brain damage, maybe impossible to know Cheers Jason,
  6. Probably my biggest take-away from traveling was exactly this: I met several people with 1/100 of the assets/salaries of us here in the west, but they were 100x happier. Puts our first-world problems in perspective and frankly how unnecessarily we grind so hard and become so unhappy. Been to ~50 countries and agree with both of these big time. Once we get past the pandemic, I'm going to look heavily into digital nomading/slow travel. It's not that expansive in most places in the third world. You just need to find a place to rent monthly. In places like Mexico my cost has been between 500 to 1000 dollars per month.
  7. Probably my biggest take-away from traveling was exactly this: I met several people with 1/100 of the assets/salaries of us here in the west, but they were 100x happier. Puts our first-world problems in perspective and frankly how unnecessarily we grind so hard and become so unhappy. I am relocating to London this month. Let's chat when I get settled.
  8. Here is the start of my reflections. More coming. https://condensed.substack.com/p/hello?r=7401s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy
  9. Happy Saturnalia http://neilhague.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/santa-crampus.png http://neilhague.com/index.php/2016/12/19/merry-saturnalia/
  10. "Primum non nocere" I don't see it as any different from any other form of capital allocation. Investing is a hard and should be done with caution. I am not sure any advice given at this point in time could be beneficial instead of harm. Best bet would be to get re-certified if they don't need the money could be fun and the world always needs more doctors. Second best thing to do is for them to look into their networks and see if there is anything interesting there.(In their case the field of medicine) It is will be primary information flow and might command an information advantage that we don't have. Those that start a second wind around their 50s already know what they should be doing.
  11. Best thing to do is land and start the immigration process and work in their home country part-time if they need the money, if they don't need the money early retirement or get a hobby. With some contemplation, they should not be taking on risk at this age so allocation should be below 20%. I don't think you should give be giving advice on this topic if it doesn't work out it will create real human misery.
  12. I don't understand it. Please explain it to me like I am five.
  13. I didn't know inflation was 400% in the past year.
  14. I would argue mind share has changed significantly over the past 10 years due to the rise of mobile and the consolidation of the internet by categories I agree with that. Relative to historical levels yes fast. Relative to the speed of Google facebook zero to hero much slower or Altavista Hero to zero.
  15. A distribution built out is based on cost benefit analysis of your product. Low margin high volume vs high margin low volume. Coca Cola is a very profitable product and will be for a long time. These products might not carry the same share of mind as they used to but still worth something. would love to buy it at 5 times earnings. It is over priced and there is too much competition in those names. It is harder to create massive focused influence as compared to the past. But I wasn't around during the golden age of tv so I am not sure. Also share of mind over entire market share changes slowly due to the limitation of the human mind.
  16. Also it doesn't look like you have same businesses characteristics as Cimpress.
  17. I like this a lot. https://www.amazon.com/Good-Strategy-Bad-Difference-Matters/dp/0307886239 There many cases out there. It is best to get to the granular details of your businesses and judge things on a case by case basis.
  18. The first question you have to answer; are you in a immature or a mature industry? If you are in a mature industry you follow standard practices and try to catch a change that will restart the industry dynamics like the cloud or the iphone. If you are in a new industry you have to figure out the economics of your industry dynamics, is it winner take all or winners take all. Your main focus should be becoming the winner or joining forces early to helping a near winner to control the market. In general capital allocation decision has two area of importance one being ROI and the other durable competitive advantage. The amount of allocation is based on subjective judgement of the allocator with the most important factor being ROI. If your business is very sticky then invest heavily on sale and marketing once you get to scale or a certain market share you can just buy or copy the better product offering. If not sticky lowest cost the best product wins. There is a market voting element where the investment community decides the winner with a high stock price or cheap capital. But most importantly before any major decisions, you should a spend a lot of time with people in the front line since they have the best information flow. As far as I can tell capital allocation is best done by people who are closest to the action with the correct incentives. You really need to be sure what is needed in terms of numbers to win and reward accordingly. capital allocation in large organizations also has a political element tread lightly and watch out career risks. Amazon way in capital allocation deals mostly with businesses that require little to no tangible capital operate.
  19. Did you guys miss the point of this story? Slaying dragons and being seen outside the herd is a very dangerous activity. Look at what happened to Burry. Most likely Buffett didn't know about it. If he did there are multiple layers of hidden risk involved in the trade. There is a reason Buffett presents himself the way he does. When you look at his moves you know he is the GOAT. Imagine the blowback if he did the trade. Thanks to thelads. Things that happened to me makes more sense now.
  20. I hear you. I went through a similar emotional rollercoaster last year at a start-up. It was really hard to get things done correctly when people in charge didn't what they were doing, acted like they knew everything and took credit for everything that worked out well. It also looked like risk management in your case didn't understand risk. It has never been about notional risk or losing money but more about blow-up risk. Thanks for the contribution, this Thread was something that I would not have experienced otherwise.
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