Fairfax India new issue

[ourkid8]

Fairfax India recently repurchased and cancelled 21,240 shares.  Let the good times roll...

 

 

[rohitc99]

You may want to keep an eye on what is happening in india. Currency has depreciated by close to 15% YTD. There is some level of liquidity squeeze and also financial firms like IIFL have seen their stock price drop a lot. It may all work out in the long run, but in the short term several headwinds

[chrispy]

It is startibg to look like it has been oversold.

 

I need to do some reviewing this weekend but a few back of the envelope numbers that are from MEMORY:

 

Currency depreciation: -20%

IIFL: 50% drop / 10% of holdings = -10%

I need to review what other percentage of holdings are publicly listed but a lot are private.

 

Ffxdf is down nearly 60% from high which was probably a bit expensive at the time.

 

Edit: I'll add that I have not convinced myself to buy more yet... Emerging markets funds seem to plummet and stay down for a while and I did not have the stomach for it back in 2015.

[lessthaniv]

I’m a buyer for the long term here..

 

I think some volatility, in addition to the financial firms as previously mentioned, is being caused by the upcoming election next April...

 

 

[wondering]

https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Fairfax-India-Completes-Initial-Investment-in-The-Catholic-Syrian-Bank-Ltd/default.aspx

[alpha]

Now down -14% YTD, at this level it's getting close to where OMERS initiated their position in 2017.

 

I am not sure why it declined another 3% today, most of the public holdings look like they had a green day, and the Rupee didn't decline.

 

Anyone buying at these levels?

 

[Lakesider]

I've added here, I think IIFL issue will blow over and risk is being overstated. Fairfax can offer them a safety net given the size of the investment.

[chrispy]

"At September 30, 2018 common shareholders' equity was $2,014.4 million, or $13.08 per share, compared to $2,132.5 million, or $14.46 per share, at December 31, 2017, a decrease of 9.5% primarily related to unrealized foreign currency translation losses as a result of the weakening of the Indian rupee relative to the U.S. dollar, partially offset by net earnings in the first nine months of 2018."

 

A decrease by 10% over the past nine months seems to me to be a win. A benefit to holding private companies

[DocSnowball]

Started a small position (1% of portfolio) with long timeframe >10 years hopefully.

 

How does one find out about IIFL possible outcomes, I didn't see much detail in the letter. Wondering how well capitalized/ indebted their other investments are given rising interest rates?

[thowed]

I struggle to understand all the businesses in detail, but believe in the long-term India story, and hope that Fairfax should be in place to benefit.

 

Asian Airports can be fine businesses (Shanghai International is a case in point at the moment), but I don't know enough about the Bengaluru management to feel confident about how how well they'll execute the expansion.  I'm sure I just need to sit down and research more.

 

The Finechem chemicals business had a decent reputation (so I heard, but not from primary research) before Fairfax got involved.

 

Stock exchanges are great businesses I think if you believe in long-term capitalism.

 

I need to do a lot more work, but overall the sectors they've gone into look very appealing.

 

Having said that, don't forget there are a heap load of well-run family companies in India to choose from - it's not tricky to create a small basket, or find a fund manager who knows what they're doing.

[DocSnowball]

I struggle to understand all the businesses in detail, but believe in the long-term India story, and hope that Fairfax should be in place to benefit.

 

Asian Airports can be fine businesses (Shanghai International is a case in point at the moment), but I don't know enough about the Bengaluru management to feel confident about how how well they'll execute the expansion.  I'm sure I just need to sit down and research more.

 

The Finechem chemicals business had a decent reputation (so I heard, but not from primary research) before Fairfax got involved.

 

Stock exchanges are great businesses I think if you believe in long-term capitalism.

 

I need to do a lot more work, but overall the sectors they've gone into look very appealing.

 

Having said that, don't forget there are a heap load of well-run family companies in India to choose from - it's not tricky to create a small basket, or find a fund manager who knows what they're doing.

 

One thing I am noting from the latest filing is Sanmar common equity went from 554 (million Indian rupees) to 208,854. There is a section that gives reasoning but it is a 376 fold increase in a quarter and holds up the shareholder equity and book value per share in the bottom line for the year and the quarter. How does such a dramatic increase work out?

 

https://s1.q4cdn.com/293822657/files/doc_financials/quarterly_reports/2018/2018-Q3-Interim-Report-(FIH)-(Final).pdf

"Sanmar Common Shares

At September 30, 2018 the company estimated the fair value of its investment in Sanmar common shares using a discounted cash flow analysis based on multi-year free cash flow projections with assumed after-tax discount rates ranging from 13.4% to 16.6% and long term growth rates ranging from 3.0% to 4.0% (December 31, 2017 - 15.2% to 19.5% and 2.0% to 3.6%, respectively). Free cash flow projections were based on EBITDA estimates derived from financial information for Sanmar's four business units (with additional financial information and analysis completed for Chemplast's underlying business units involved in new capital projects) prepared in the third quarter of 2018 by Sanmar's management. Discount rates were based on the company's assessment of risk premiums to the appropriate risk-free rate of the economic environment in which Sanmar operates. In the third quarter of 2018 Fairfax India recorded unrealized gains of $225,013 on its investment in Sanmar common shares primarily as a result of: (i) positive operational developments at Sanmar Egypt (successful completion of its increased capacities in Egypt) and Chemplast (will benefit from the completion of new capital projects); (ii) continued strong demand for PVC and related products in India, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa; and (iii) the decrease in the after-tax discount rates (principally related to the decreased risk at Sanmar Egypt as a result of the completion of its capital expenditure project to increase capacity). At September 30, 2018 the company's internal valuation model indicated that the fair value of the company's investment in Sanmar common shares was $208,854 (December 31, 2017 - $556). The changes in fair value of the company's investment in Sanmar common shares for the third quarters and first nine months of 2018 and 2017 are presented in the tables disclosed earlier in note 5."

[petec]

I struggle to understand all the businesses in detail, but believe in the long-term India story, and hope that Fairfax should be in place to benefit.

 

Asian Airports can be fine businesses (Shanghai International is a case in point at the moment), but I don't know enough about the Bengaluru management to feel confident about how how well they'll execute the expansion.  I'm sure I just need to sit down and research more.

 

The Finechem chemicals business had a decent reputation (so I heard, but not from primary research) before Fairfax got involved.

 

Stock exchanges are great businesses I think if you believe in long-term capitalism.

 

I need to do a lot more work, but overall the sectors they've gone into look very appealing.

 

Having said that, don't forget there are a heap load of well-run family companies in India to choose from - it's not tricky to create a small basket, or find a fund manager who knows what they're doing.

 

One thing I am noting from the latest filing is Sanmar common equity went from 554 (million Indian rupees) to 208,854. There is a section that gives reasoning but it is a 376 fold increase in a quarter and holds up the shareholder equity and book value per share in the bottom line for the year and the quarter. How does such a dramatic increase work out?

 

https://s1.q4cdn.com/293822657/files/doc_financials/quarterly_reports/2018/2018-Q3-Interim-Report-(FIH)-(Final).pdf

"Sanmar Common Shares

At September 30, 2018 the company estimated the fair value of its investment in Sanmar common shares using a discounted cash flow analysis based on multi-year free cash flow projections with assumed after-tax discount rates ranging from 13.4% to 16.6% and long term growth rates ranging from 3.0% to 4.0% (December 31, 2017 - 15.2% to 19.5% and 2.0% to 3.6%, respectively). Free cash flow projections were based on EBITDA estimates derived from financial information for Sanmar's four business units (with additional financial information and analysis completed for Chemplast's underlying business units involved in new capital projects) prepared in the third quarter of 2018 by Sanmar's management. Discount rates were based on the company's assessment of risk premiums to the appropriate risk-free rate of the economic environment in which Sanmar operates. In the third quarter of 2018 Fairfax India recorded unrealized gains of $225,013 on its investment in Sanmar common shares primarily as a result of: (i) positive operational developments at Sanmar Egypt (successful completion of its increased capacities in Egypt) and Chemplast (will benefit from the completion of new capital projects); (ii) continued strong demand for PVC and related products in India, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa; and (iii) the decrease in the after-tax discount rates (principally related to the decreased risk at Sanmar Egypt as a result of the completion of its capital expenditure project to increase capacity). At September 30, 2018 the company's internal valuation model indicated that the fair value of the company's investment in Sanmar common shares was $208,854 (December 31, 2017 - $556). The changes in fair value of the company's investment in Sanmar common shares for the third quarters and first nine months of 2018 and 2017 are presented in the tables disclosed earlier in note 5."

 

Didn’t Sanmar repay a big loan to FFH? My recollection was the original equity investment was valued almost at 0 and most of the financing was the loan, so when the company repaid the loan the equity value will have risen dramatically.

[DocSnowball]

@thowed and @petec Thank you for your replies.

[hobbit]

Significant insider buying in the last 3-4 months

[chrispy]

Hobbit, where did you see this? I am having trouble finding anything besides Bradstreet with my quick search

[hobbit]

https://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=FIH

[gfp]

Significant insider buying in the last 3-4 months

 

Is this "insider buying" or issuer repurchase activity?

[Cigarbutt]

Significant insider buying in the last 3-4 months

Is this "insider buying" or issuer repurchase activity?

Looking back at the last 6 months or so in the canadianinsider reports, most to all share purchase activity is corporate repurchasing, including the last part where the maximum (25% of volume per trading day) number of shares is repurchased for eventual cancellation.

 

https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-Intention-to-Make-a-Normal-Course-Issuer-Bid-for-Subordinate-Voting-Shares/default.aspx

 

The only insiders I see in that period (# of shares):

-J. Cloutier        -6350

-D. Bonham      +800

-B. Bradstreet  net +28500

 

Note to "gfp", since your name modification:

what's changed: I used to picture you as an international executive and now I think of Grandmothers For Peace.

what's the same: the level of interest I have for your posts.

[Jurgis]

Note to "gfp", since your name modification:

what's changed: I used to picture you as an international executive and now I think of Grandmothers For Peace.

what's the same: the level of interest I have for your posts.

 

Gross Financial Product?  8)

[rohitc99]

i tried to put in an order in fidelity and it was blocked with a 144A restriction. as per fidelity, the stock has been placed on a restricted list for retail in the US as the company did not register its public issue from 2017. does anyone have any information on it ?

 

the fidelity rep checked on bloomberg terminal and confirmed that this is not a fidelity issue

[DocSnowball]

i tried to put in an order in fidelity and it was blocked with a 144A restriction. as per fidelity, the stock has been placed on a restricted list for retail in the US as the company did not register its public issue from 2017. does anyone have any information on it ?

 

the fidelity rep checked on bloomberg terminal and confirmed that this is not a fidelity issue

 

I have bought FFXDF from JPM Chase Investment account in Dec 2018 without any issues.

[eclecticvalue]

Rohitc99- This is the same problem I have been experiencing. Supposedly Fairfax India needs to file statements with a U.S. authority in order to be current.

[rohitc99]

docsnowball - i did that a few months ago too and it worked then. Per fidelity, there was no hold then and was done recently. you can sell your stock now, but not buy

 

eclecticvalue - how do we get this fixed. is there anyone in the company we write to ? this seems to be an issue from 2017. seems to be very sloppy and careless on their part to miss something so basic

[eclecticvalue]

I would think the Exec team or Prem.

[obtuse_investor]

FIH is only listed in Canada. Why would the management have to report to SEC?

 

This is a genuine question. I don’t know what form the US listed entity is. It’s not an ADR. It’s a Wall Street manufactured trading instrument of some type.