gary17 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 So there are so many combustion engine cars out there but a select few like Porsche and Lambo are the expensive ones... If Tesla can maintain that premium brand then it should continue to have strong pricing power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 My issue with Tesla is that it is already a 20B firm, and larger in MCap than most car firms, so even if it replaces Mercedes, it will be a 90B firm....which is great, but nothing compared to the MSFT or BRK or AAPL of the world. AMZN could be up there. Given its growth rate, dominant position in an emerging cloud market, apex predator CEO etc etc. But again, it is already a 180B firm. Look at the market caps of the largest companies 20 years ago compared with today. It wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that in 2034 there will be a company with a $2.6T-$2.8T market cap. And if you do the same for 30 years ago you could assume that in 2044 there may be a company with a $3.5T-$4T market cap. Still 50X seems like a stretch for TSLA from here, but combine extreme growth with inflation and maybe stock buybacks and re-invested dividends (at some point) and it may be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 My issue with Tesla is that in 10 or so years all auto manufacturers will be able to produce battery-powered cars, and probably do it cheaper than Tesla. They will probably produce cheaply made electric cars. GM may even produce a cheaply-made electric rolling sarcophagus :) Tesla will probably still generate top-rated cars -- no promise that they will be cheaply-made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 FWIW, attached is a stock performance comparison between several of the names discussed on this thread. 25 years since I was comparing DHR with the other stocks and DHR's history goes to 1985. This does not include dividends. My bet is that one or more of these names is likely to feature in the top stock list if we were to look back from 2040. Surely other names will be added to the list but from a capital preservation pov, there is enough here. Top_stocks_-_25_year.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Don't forget with Tesla guys that they are an auto-manufacturer today, tomorrow who knows? They are now getting into battery manufacturing which is new. Who knows what they will pivot into next. That is why I compare them to Apple pre-ipod. Tesla in 20 years will be in different segments than today is my prediction. The one caveat is I don't know for sure that Musk will use tesla for his new ideas, he already has SpaceX and Solar City so perhaps he will keep IPO'ing new companies. However Tesla now has brand recognition so I am betting he will leverage the brand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I would put Altius on the list as well. Not sure if it's 50x or what but long-term I seem them doing well. It's going to be a bumpy ride though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 If/when it goes public - spacex; or solar city Anyway, this is a mugs game. In 2001, after the dot.com crash which company would you have picked for long term growth and success: HP, dell, Rim, Apple, yahoo, Time warner/aol, sony, google, facebook (didn't exist), twitter (same), linked in, netflix, ABc, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN, Microsoft, intel, ibm - I think I made my point. In 1996 it looked as though Netscape had the internet wrapped up. In 1997 it looked as though FFH would grow at greater than 20% a year. Remember all the early search engines. Who could have predicted Googles dominance in 1996. This is why value investing works consistently better than other investment styles. My major wish is that I held on to my spring 2009 picks: AXP, Sbux, HD, GE, and WFC. Hindsight is 20/20. I would have been further ahead with these than fussing around with options on BAC. I still hold Seaspan, fortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtvalue Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 This is a great discussion topic and I've been thinking about it a lot lately. My #1 choice would be MKL. It's a 9 bil market cap today and if they compound at 15% for 20 years it would be a $138 bil market cap. This article is a little outdated (year 2007) but it contains the 25 best performing stocks over a 25 year period. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/top25-stocks.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 This article is a little outdated (year 2007) but it contains the 25 best performing stocks over a 25 year period. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/top25-stocks.htm Interesting that Danaher is #2. I wonder if the Rawles will be able to do it again with Colfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatOfThePig Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 This article is a little outdated (year 2007) but it contains the 25 best performing stocks over a 25 year period. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/top25-stocks.htm It's very funny to read what they said about Countrywide: 12Countrywide 24,160% This leading mortgage lender provided the fuel for the home-buying boom, which in turn was a boon for its bottom line. Its focus on first-time buyers with pristine credit has limited collateral damage from exposure to sub-prime lending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-10-best-stocks-of-the-past-20-years-1331582653834/print?guid=32c7b3c8-6c71-11e1-add4-07212803fad6 Kansas City Southern is a pretty cool story how it owned Janus (lots of asset managers on these lists) and also a business with enormous operating leverage and reinvestment opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 If/when it goes public - spacex; or solar city Anyway, this is a mugs game. In 2001, after the dot.com crash which company would you have picked for long term growth and success: HP, dell, Rim, Apple, yahoo, Time warner/aol, sony, google, facebook (didn't exist), twitter (same), linked in, netflix, ABc, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN, Microsoft, intel, ibm - I think I made my point. In 1996 it looked as though Netscape had the internet wrapped up. In 1997 it looked as though FFH would grow at greater than 20% a year. Remember all the early search engines. Who could have predicted Googles dominance in 1996. This is why value investing works consistently better than other investment styles. My major wish is that I held on to my spring 2009 picks: AXP, Sbux, HD, GE, and WFC. Hindsight is 20/20. I would have been further ahead with these than fussing around with options on BAC. I still hold Seaspan, fortunately. +1 Not just value investing but the "buy (truckloads)-and-hold-forever" variety. It has worked and will likely work into the future. Isn't it amazing that there are so few do this though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I want to throw in a few that nobody has mentioned yet ;D - coming as a public company near you... Gio holdings Parsad Financial and who knows, may be even Shalab and family ;D ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Don't forget with Tesla guys that they are an auto-manufacturer today, tomorrow who knows? They are now getting into battery manufacturing which is new. Who knows what they will pivot into next. That is why I compare them to Apple pre-ipod. Tesla in 20 years will be in different segments than today is my prediction. The one caveat is I don't know for sure that Musk will use tesla for his new ideas, he already has SpaceX and Solar City so perhaps he will keep IPO'ing new companies. However Tesla now has brand recognition so I am betting he will leverage the brand. This is an important point, Musk and the Pre-IPO investors have done well with TSLA. There will be many fools who buy into the hype after the big boys clean up. The hype is their exit strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Partner24 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I want to throw in a few that nobody has mentioned yet ;D - coming as a public company near you... Gio holdings Parsad Financial That's what I tought too. I'll certainly take a look at them when they will get public. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 My issue with Tesla is that it is already a 20B firm, and larger in MCap than most car firms, so even if it replaces Mercedes, it will be a 90B firm....which is great, but nothing compared to the MSFT or BRK or AAPL of the world. AMZN could be up there. Given its growth rate, dominant position in an emerging cloud market, apex predator CEO etc etc. But again, it is already a 180B firm. Look at the market caps of the largest companies 20 years ago compared with today. It wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that in 2034 there will be a company with a $2.6T-$2.8T market cap. And if you do the same for 30 years ago you could assume that in 2044 there may be a company with a $3.5T-$4T market cap. Still 50X seems like a stretch for TSLA from here, but combine extreme growth with inflation and maybe stock buybacks and re-invested dividends (at some point) and it may be possible. I think this is exactly right - that the largest companies of the future will be well into the trillion dollar market caps. The largest stock earned $4B in 1980 but most of the top 100 stocks were only earning a few hundred million dollars! Each generation will see at least 10X leaps in largest market caps, if humanity and technology keep progressing. I also think that it's very possible the stocks to own aren't super young, unheard or and small. All of the stocks from the 1960s were decades old: Walgreens; Exxon; Coke. These were 50+ year old companies! And another thing, routinely buying back stock - 2-3% a year or so - will almost surely be a trait of many of the greatest stocks of this generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jouni1 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 i say spacex because musk is yummy and space is cool. ::) seriously though it's going to be a paper company or something. packaging perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I strongly believe Class I railroads will do extremely well over the next generations. A few of the reasons are pricing power as they are able to raise prices over inflation, extrmely large moat since it is next to impossible to build new tracks, population growth as this trend continues additional goods will need to be moved and additional effieiencies to continue to drive down capex. I also believe the future compounders will not be obscure names but will be everyday names we overlook just like KO, Philip morris etc... Tks, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongHaul Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I think you need a few things generally. There will be exceptions. 1. Capable Mgmt. 2. A real moat that will be a durable competitive advantage. 3. A demand wave behind you. 4. Competitors messing up. 5. Ideally a cheap price. Over 50 years $1 turns into $117.39 at a 10% CAGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lu_hawk Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 TSLA It seems wildly overpriced right now but it will grow like a weed and pivot into new markets. Valuing it right now is like trying to value Apple pre-ipod. I don't know the exact path they will take but it wouldn't surprise me if it's a 50x over the next 20 years. Just a guess of course but I have a small amount in it which should contribute meaningfully to my portfolio if I am right. Nobody had a tough time valuing Apple before the iPod--it was valued at cash on the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I strongly believe Class I railroads will do extremely well over the next generations. A few of the reasons are pricing power as they are able to raise prices over inflation, extrmely large moat since it is next to impossible to build new tracks, population growth as this trend continues additional goods will need to be moved and additional effieiencies to continue to drive down capex. I also believe the future compounders will not be obscure names but will be everyday names we overlook just like KO, Philip morris Tks,etc... S +1. Fuel costs are going one way, up. With the inherent efficiency of railroad over asphalt, railroads are near certain to do better and better. As a parallel to railroads, broadband providers are likely to do well in the increasingly networked world we live in. At least the last man standing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Every generation has a handful of stocks that make their owners fabulously wealthy, even from small ownership stakes. What are the stocks that will make their owners rich over the next 10, 20, and 30 years? What stocks will be written about in articles - you know the kind that say "so and so bought $10,000 in this stock 40 years ago and now they're a billionaire"? Some past examples: Berkshire Hathaway, obviously - 1960s - 1990s Microsoft - 1980s IPO until late 1990s Fairfax 1980s - mid-2000s Coke - forever until forever Walgreen's - 1960s - now Exxon - 1960s (or before) - now If I knew I'd be a stockmarket genius.... we're all trying to (blindly) guess what it is , that's what this forum is about..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jouni1 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 If I knew I'd be a stockmarket genius.... we're all trying to (blindly) guess what it is , that's what this forum is about..... actually most people on this forum seem to have shorter term strategies. i guess trading is the new holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Alright..please hold your tomatoes...BH (Biglari Holdings)? One advantage it has is its 700M market cap. (I can't believe I beat Gio to this guess. He must be working or to busy to post.) On a side note, has anyone ever noticed when you type BH in to the Google Finance search bar it brings up Berkshire? I have to go back an actually type in Biglari before it will find Biglari Holdings. I miss SNS:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jouni1 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 i googled BH. i got bunch of titties in image seach. and biglari holdings. no berkshire :D conclusion: google more titties, get more accurate results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now