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Partner24

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Everything posted by Partner24

  1. Thanks for the suggestions! I agree that GHC track record over the last years is not appealing. Volvere so far seems like an interesting company. A small business with interesting potential. Management seems to be disciplined with their capital allocation decisions. Seems more like a Leucadia kind of thing (but underperforming assets, turnaround, etc.). And when the stock get low, they buyback some shares. Regarding size, I prefer when the size is small or medium. Big size companies has to shoot elephants, they need big things to move the needle and it's difficult. In this big size category, Berkshire is great! Danaher, what a dumb decision from me. I studied it years ago and did not invested in it. It's been a big multibagger since then.
  2. Hi, It's been a while since I've posted! My portfolio is very quiet..I just hold 4 conglomerate stocks and that's it. One of them was managed by the South African Brian Joffe, one of the best investors of our times (what he has done with Bidvest is terrific). He's been the CEO of Long4life since a few years, what he has done instrinsicaly is very good, but the stock price has not reflected that. And unfortunately, it's gonna be sold and unlisted. The others conglomerate stocks that I own are Berkshire, Markel and Clarke, wich I will keep. I would like to have some of your similar ideas. Great investors who manage a conglomerate and who have a great track record. That manage the business for the long term intrinsic value per share gain. I'm looking forward to replace Long4life with one or two conglomerate stocks. Your ideas will be much appreciated. Cheers!
  3. Regarding FFH, I do not keep myself informed about it anymore, so I will not start a new poll. But feel free to do so. Cheers!
  4. Sad indeed. Lesson learned about how we can sometimes be over-optimistic about value investors. And how FFH team was too scared about macro stuff for too long.
  5. We're 10 years later now and it's time to use your calculator! ;-) Cheers!
  6. It looks like the Eye of Sauron ;-)
  7. Since I don't have a lot of time to spend on analyzing individual businesses, I generaly buy good diversified conglomerates managed by disciplined capital allocators. Stocks like Markel, Clarke, Long4life, etc. If you have some names to share, it would be much appreciated. Ideally businesses that are not too big so they still have large opportunities to expand. Thank you!
  8. Reports about coyotes in Montreal recently. One of them being sick likely attacked a small dog recently: http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/grand-montreal/201805/02/01-5168730-un-coyote-attaque-un-chien-dans-ahuntsic-cartierville.php (in French). Cheers!
  9. Good to see the candor. We're all humans. It can be tough for anybody sometimes and when someone has no candor, even in tough times, it makes me feel suspicious. Cheers!
  10. Very interesting list. Thanks! I'm actually hesitating between Clarke and Judge Scientific. If you have other ideas, they are very welcome! Cheers!
  11. Do you know some small to mid-sized holding companies that are managed by good value investors? Thanks!
  12. You've done a great job Dazel and this board have done a great cheerfulness job over the years, especialy when FFH was in their bad years (Peter Eavis, naked shorts, reserves development, bad combined ratios, stock issues, etc.). Now FFH management has less support, and frankly it's well deserved. They get the reaction from their own behavior. It's more difficult to evaluate the intrinsic value of a business when you see both talk and walk changing like that, when you don't know when the top management will dilute your voting (even if shareholders say no the first time), and when you feel that the top management act more like sellers than business partners on the conference calls.
  13. With Markel, what you see is what you get. Very straightforward people. Their plan is clear and they walk the talk. With FFH, you get a "Oh, Trump is elected now" kind of line for billions of dollars lost. Huge...huge lack of candor. Remember the "we prefer to be wrong wrong...right than to be right right...wrong" kind of line that we heard for years? What a joke. Finally, it was "wrong...wrong...oh ok Trump!" kind of line. Markel was more like "we don't play that game...we don't play that game...we still don't play that game" kind of line.
  14. History repeating itself. Human nature at work.
  15. They roamed around Earth until they discovered our stock markets and realized there wasn't any intelligent life here. My guess they left in 1999. Ahahahahah ;)
  16. Dazel, I guess it has to do with how Prem handled the situation over the last few years. They were calling for a bad economy for years and hedged and everything, then after a long bull market, they are in. Billions of dollars lost. Only main explanation: Donald Trump election. Wow... ...big lack of candor. When you're ego is so big that you can't even realize your mistakes openly, chances are in that you'll keep doing them. Ego can be a very very expensive thing that you don't see on the financial results. They also change the multivoting shares count, shareholders are upset and want to say no, and they come back until they win. I guess that some got pissed off by Prem's behavior. JMO. Cheers!
  17. Well, for those of you who care to learn about happiness and what cause it, you may found this interesting. "What makes a good life? Lessons from the longest study on happiness | Robert Waldinger"
  18. Fairfax and Markel are two businesses that are operated differently. Markel look more like the "reach the silver medal" goal oriented. Don't speculate too much on macroeconomics and focus on the business model. Conservativeness with opportunity seeking. Easier to follow as a shareholder. Fairfax look more like the "gold medal" oriented business. More speculation on the macroeconomics. Can say one thing a year and the opposite the next one. Require more flexibility, tougher to follow as a shareholder. Can have terrific results for some years when it works, and mediocre when it don't. The road's been more volatile over the last years, but NOT better. Long term, difficult to say. Markel is easier to predict to me. Reach for and will probably get the "silver medal". Satisfactory results, but not terrific ones. 9%-13% CAGR is a reasonable expectation to me. Fairfax is tougher to predict. Will depends more on what Prem wants and feels to cook. I guess it should do fine too...maybe better, maybe worst than Markel. May be a more volatile road, but that does not necessarely mean that it will be a better one. From this point, time will tell.
  19. Ladies and gentlemen, finally, we have the answer. MKL just hit 1000$ this morning. A very interesting graph (starting point: June 10th, 2014): http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=mkl&time=100&startdata-ipsquote-timestamp=6%2F10%2F2014&enddata-ipsquote-timestamp=7%2F3%2F2017&freq=1&compidx=SP500&comptemptext=ffh&comp=ffh&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&x=45&y=17&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12 Still, I don't know what to say...I would guess it depends somewhat on what will happen with the general stock market. If it goes down, you'll likely see FFH do better on a relative basis than MKL. If it's the contrary, MKL should do better.
  20. Well, Fairfax been my first trade ever. In january or february 2003, I bought some shares. I was so delighted about the price that I posted the transaction receipt on my kitchen wall. At times, FFH was nearly 40% of my investment portfolio. Now, more than 14 years later, I sold all my shares and I'm not a shareholder anymore.
  21. Sanjeev, I understand the frustration. You do all this for free...with your heart and it takes both time and effort to organize this. I've went to the FFH AGM once (almost a decade ago), I met you and some other nice folks and keep good memories of this. Regarding the sharp drop in popularity, it's just a guess from my part, but I would not be surprised if some people are tired with what happened with FFH over the last years (multiple voting rights shares reissue, a sudden and huge change in macro forecast after an election, poor stock portfolio management, communications, etc.). Yes, actions speak louder than words. Nearly 30% of my own investment portfolio is invested in PDH. I work hard as a small business owner and a very significant part of the dividend that I'm beginning to get is invested in PDH. Thank you for your hard work Sanjeev.
  22. Well said Cigarbutt. Their underwriting have improved very significantly over the years. That's a huge gain. But investing have been mediocre over the last years. We have the opposite situation than in the lean years period. I like the underwriting, I like Fairfax India, Africa, the investments in operating businesses like Cara, etc. but their cigar butt style investing haven't been good with a huge portfolio like they have now. And the ark that they built came at a huge price...billions. I've kept most of my investment, but I'm not adding to it anymore. Me too Fairfax been 40% of my net worth or so at times, but the % is gradually decreasing.
  23. Here are the facts: - Weather forecasts. They tried to predict rain. The sun shined a lot. How about building a ship that will do fairly well at both and bad times instead of predicting weather like that? Instead of trying to be wrong...wrong..wrong....right, what about ...ok if wrong or right...ok if wrong or right...ok if wrong or right...just like Berkshire and Markel? - Cigar butts equities. Did very well when they had small to mid size money to invest. Did mediocre with a big portfolio.
  24. A terrific board indeed wich I have followed since 14 years now. It helped me a lot and I'm happy to have found a good "jockey" that I trust with PDH. Cheers!
  25. Oh my, Prem is still making these macro forecasts? No lesson learned from these huge losses? He's bearish when the market is low and bullish when the market is high? For the first time in 13 years, I will seriously consider reducing or eliminating my position in FFH. I can handle a lot, but this is difficult.
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