gfp
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Everything posted by gfp
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As a resident of the US Gulf Coast I can confirm that refined products are abundant and considerably cheaper than the rest of the country. Our consolation prize for living in 'cancer alley' ...
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I Need a Laugh. Tell me a Joke. Keep em PC.
gfp replied to doughishere's topic in General Discussion
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/allbirds-bird-stock-shoes-ai.html -
Yikes! The alternative is zero!??
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Are you talking about Fairfax Financial or Fairfax India?
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I think this has been a good price to buy the stock and I have been buying it. If it goes lower next week it will also be a good time to buy the stock. We are investors here, we don't like to pay high prices, any negativity helps us. The money is made in the buying after all.
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WSJ article on how dumb it is to expect central banks to increase rates due to this spike in oil prices. Author wishes he bought the 2 year at 4% but of course it was gone in an instant. "gift article link" https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/pain-at-the-pump-should-mean-pain-in-the-economy-not-higher-rates-02fbd9ba?st=R4Dh4C&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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Tail Risk - Is It Part of Your Investment Framework?
gfp replied to Viking's topic in General Discussion
haha, just finished reading that from my morning email before coming over here. Spoiler alert if you haven't seen Margin Call lol Irrational Analysis is great. I always get a kick out of it, even when the technical content is way over my head - which is very often -
There is a Blue Owl thread. I guess that's where people discuss private credit
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I'm buying. I suppose I'm also holding? I last sold (some, not all) over $18. I sold twice (almost everything) around $20, the first time from the top deck of a ferry to Isla Mujeres so I remember that one clearly. Then we got a wonderful dip back to the 14's and I bought a ton while you all were sitting in the FIH annual meeting not bidding for shares. And then it went to $20 again over the summer. A total gift! Has the setup ever been better? Possibly, since we still don't know the effects this war / supply disruption is going to have on the Indian economy & listed Indian equity prices. But the delay in IPO-ing the airport has only helped shareholders, not hurt them. I say stack some more stuff on Modi's desk and keep our Anchorage IPO form buried...
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I Need a Laugh. Tell me a Joke. Keep em PC.
gfp replied to doughishere's topic in General Discussion
sorry to further derail the joke thread... I was tired of having to hand wash steak knives and finally got two sets of these wustoff knives I saw in my brother in law's drawer. Now I just stick them in the dishwasher with the rest of the stuff. simple pleasures https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00WN6RA98?ref_=ppx_hzsearch_conn_dt_b_fed_asin_title_2&th=1 -
well its nice to see someone acknowledge this. I'm used to hearing "they are choosing to ditch the dollar!!"
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Berkshire is back in the JPY bond market doing a refinance & a little extra of that cheap cheap yen to pay for Tokio Marine https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312526138654/d81172d424b5.htm "We expect to use the net proceeds of this offering to refinance the 2026 Senior Notes, and any remaining net proceeds to finance in part our acquisition of a minority stake in Tokio Marine. This offering is not contingent upon our investment in Tokio Marine. Certain of the underwriters and/or their affiliates may own the 2026 Senior Notes and, as a result, may receive a portion of the net proceeds from this offering." edit: You don't see too many companies, in the middle of a war no less, that are so confident their bond offering will go off without a hitch that they file a preliminary prospectus TWO WEEKS before the bonds they are refinancing mature... "We expect to use the net proceeds of this offering to refinance our 0.173% Senior Notes due 2026 (¥40,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount) that are maturing on April 15, 2026 and our 0.907% Senior Notes due 2026 (¥93,900,000,000 aggregate principal amount) that are maturing on April 20, 2026 (collectively, the “2026 Senior Notes”), and any remaining net proceeds to finance in part our acquisition of a minority stake in Japanese insurer Tokio Marine Holdings (“Tokio Marine”). This offering is not contingent upon our investment in Tokio Marine. Certain of the underwriters and/or their affiliates may own the 2026 Senior Notes and, as a result, may receive a portion of the net proceeds from this offering."
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I've done pretty well in this security over the years just paying attention to "peak complaining" on this thread. Fairfax took their last fee in cash instead of underpriced shares - that was the first time they had that option per the contract and that's probably the closest you are going to get to Fairfax voluntarily / unilaterally deciding to reduce the fee structure. I'm surprised it hasn't been brought up more, but what initially turned me off was the Nepo-hire. Like many, I was fine with Ben on the FFH board of directors to represent the family's control shares and keep the culture just like I am fine with Farmer Howie and his weird sister sitting on the board of directors of $1 trillion systemically important Berkshire for similar reasons. But making Ben chairman of FIH was a big turn off for me. So I was paying very close attention at his first annual meeting and I was pleasantly surprised and now I have no issue with Ben the nepo-hire at the top of FIH.u... Keep an open mind and take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves. Opportunities to make money without a material risk of losing money are not so ample that you can waste them and spend all your time complaining about your stock being undervalued. It's a "value investor" message board LOL.. Every stock we are interested in should be "under valued" and that would mean every thread was full of complaining "why is my stock price not reflecting intrinsic value as calculated on my spreadsheet!!!" UNFAIR!
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I Need a Laugh. Tell me a Joke. Keep em PC.
gfp replied to doughishere's topic in General Discussion
Thanks for filling me in Jon. I like japanese knives, mostly because they can be so beautiful. That different angle you sharpen them at make them a bit more fragile. But sometimes I just want a big heavy wustoff classic chefs knife to whack cloves of garlic with the side of. Never had a satisfying "garlic whack" with a dainty japanese knife -
It's a lot cheaper for the government to nip a crisis in the bud before too many dominoes fall than it is to run the massive deficits a "great recession" or depression causes. The flip side is that old dude in Nebraska doesn't get to go grave dancing like he used to. Plus we get a fun new acronym each time. BTFP? Was that the latest one? Maybe the next one will be PCPG - the "Private Credit Parking Garage" where you can park your suspect loans for 12 months at 100 cents on the dollar and figure it out next year.
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I Need a Laugh. Tell me a Joke. Keep em PC.
gfp replied to doughishere's topic in General Discussion
I'm curious why they are so hard to find? Is this not one listed for sale online? https://mtckitchen.com/collections/japanese-knives/products/takamura-santoku-170mm or https://www.chefknivestogo.com/takamura6.html What makes them better than other Japanese kitchen knives? We have several different brands but no takamura knives -
I buy a lot of stuff that has a lot of passionate complaints against it. A lot of stuff that management does that I don't think they should do for various reasons. Usually that "hair" is the primary reason the security trades cheap enough to become a really safe investment where I can own a lot and not have a big risk of losing any money permanently. So the opportunity wouldn't exist (for a cheapskate like me who needs a big margin of safety because I take really big positions in relatively few things) without the "hair." It's like one of those old parables. Do you curse the "hair" or are you thankful for the "hair" ? Investing in a bunch of companies where I think management is doing things they shouldn't also highlights the rare cases where I see a management that I don't have any criticisms - guys like Jorge & Marek and Tal & Francisco. Rare birds!
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I was worried this was a trick question and that was when the airport concession ended and that meant ZERO but I looked it up and they extended the lease to 2068 back in 2024 so I think BIAL will still have value in 10 years. Phew
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Imagine you have low inflation, near the target you set because you really don't want zero inflation, and then a war pushes the price of certain commodities up and you are the Fed chair tasked with deciding precisely what level of overnight interest rates will result in lowering those commodity prices. The answer is - you have absolutely no power over oil / commodity prices unless you can manage to cause a recession/depression big enough to destroy sufficient demand for those commodities. There isn't a magic level of overnight interest rates that re-opens a waterway or pumps more oil. Meanwhile high oil prices are more like a tightening / tax than "inflation" so you should probably not be piling on with more tightening but, you know... CPI number go up
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Thanks for putting together the post @CoGreenwich&Laight You live in Tribeca? Despite all that bad stuff I still bought some FIH.U at 16.05 and 16.08 recently. I think I'm gonna do OK. But unlike some people, I will actually sell it when it goes up towards 20 again
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Ahhh to be young again! Everything is just so cut and dry. I read it in a book and heard it on a podcast! Warsh is going to be different from Powell and Warsh has the choice to be "more of a disciplinarian".. I am looking forward to Warsh actually starting his job so we can start dispensing with all this "Warsh will be different" chatter that we are SO sure of
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Old man Malone writing some put options on Formula One "On March 30, 2026, Mr. Malone wrote over-the-counter put options to a financial institution counterparty representing the obligation by the financial institution to sell to Mr. Malone an aggregate of 250,000 shares of Series A Liberty Formula One Common Stock at a strike price of $71.7531, which was determined pursuant to a formula based on the weighted average prices of the Series A Liberty Formula One Common Stock at which the financial institution established its initial hedge position in respect of the put options. The put options are European style and may be settled physically or in cash at the option of Mr. Malone. The put options expire in three approximately equal components on March 29, 2027, March 30, 2027 and March 31, 2027. Mr. Malone received a premium of approximately $1,284,000, in the aggregate, for writing the puts."
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The context is that a treasury auction will never fail and that is what he was referring to. (and, yes, the Federal Reserve is not allowed to directly bid in treasury securities auctions but primary dealers are required to backstop the auctions in exchange for the privilege)
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Life insurance companies are some of the largest investors in commercial real estate and private mortgages on commercial real estate. The long duration (and reduced liquidity) of the RE itself fits better with Life than P&C
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Lose one shred of reputation for my firm and I will be ruthless - he has been saying it for years
