Jump to content

gfp

Member
  • Posts

    8,119
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    20

Everything posted by gfp

  1. All of Buffett's favorites combined - float (get cash today for miles that are spent at some point in the future, with some breakage where miles don't get spent at all) and the ability to print one's own currency out of thin air. I don't think it's an accident that Buffett gravitates towards the airline with the Amex partnership. I think it's a little ridiculous that the media keeps characterizing this as the first big move by Abel. Zero chance Abel decided "I'm going to buy stock in Delta"
  2. the national association of insurance commissioners (NAIC) filings at insdata - but National Indemnity hasn't filed their Q1 filing yet.
  3. I've thought about that also but despite them choosing to repurchase the block of counterparty shares hedging the TRS tranche they have closed in the past, there is no reason to assume they will repurchase the share blocks when they choose to close out all or part of the TRS position in the future. I know you like to think of it as "they have already locked in the price" but that's not how I think about it at all. The decision to buy the counterparty's shares at the same time you are choosing to exit the swap is a completely separate decision and the price will be very different. The company has been consistent about framing it as an investment - for the gains - and not framing it as "locking in the price of a future share buyback." I think they would be happy to exit the TRS at a price so high they were not interested in buying the underlying block...
  4. US dollar close was $1578.9 per share and there are 20,624,032 shares outstanding right? The rest of your figures were in US dollars. Market cap is $32.56 million USD. The proxy and a bunch of online services don't calculate the look-through treasury ownership of 800k shares through Sixty-two investment. they do usually account for shares held in treasury for future executive compensation.
  5. National Indemnity hasn't filed their NAIC filings yet, so maybe on Monday it will be possible to see which foreign stocks were bought/sold.
  6. It wasn't a big portfolio for Berkshire, but Todd didn't stop managing his pool of capital for BRK and the pension funds when he moved into the GEICO position. They have talked about it many times.
  7. Warren is super strict about dumping other people's names. It killed Lou Simpson to liquidate his portfolio right before his exit. He was like, "please can we keep the Nike??!" Warren says "NO." liquidate your book fella
  8. Todd's portfolio apparently: V MA UNH DPZ AON POOL AMZN HEI.A ...
  9. Pretty impressed with the Google move uncle warren just your basic geriatric building a $22 billion position out of nowhere.. good
  10. veterans disability in the USA has turned into a complete game. Of the middle-aged people I know, nobody gets VA disability payment. Of the 35 and under group, almost all of them receive huge monthly disability payments despite being super fit, successful full time jobs, etc - something like $1600 / month for life. Sometimes both husband and wife get the same check. Its insane. Meanwhile older vets are literally sleeping under tarps on the neutral ground (local term for median for those who don't speak nola)
  11. Yeah they must have been required to do this because of the merger. They have a bunch of language that lets them un-do it if the merger doesn't close for some reason.
  12. gfp

    Bonds!

    I'll take the other side of that bet and I don't even need you to define "soon"
  13. No real surprises there. WEN buy was in the NAIC filing I posted. As I figured, they completely exited OXY
  14. 53.74 was what I meant to type the important bit is that they probably sold their entire position, we'll know when the 13f comes out very soon - they had the perfect storm of oil price spike bail them out and still sold out of a presumably "long term" investment at a loss on the first opportunity to approach break-even. Maybe they should leave energy investing to outsiders - they have not distinguished themselves trading impulsively in and out of copycat positions like this one.
  15. So are you posting this to suggest that we are more likely to see a relatively benign Atlantic Hurricane season or something else?
  16. update on Chou's portfolio https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=ca https://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=ca&typ=a
  17. attached are Odyssey's equity purchases during Q1 (not all of Fairfax, just the Odyssey bucket. 13F should be out soon) Looks like they started buying Exor (i don't know how to make these not blurry, the original PDF is in the post above this)
  18. Fairfax sold a bunch of OXY around $3.74 in early March ODDSY_Q1_26_23680.2026.P.Q1.P.O.1.5184506.pdf
  19. gfp

    Bonds!

    20 and 30 year are both at or above 5%. I think the 2 year when it offers more than 4% is a better deal but you won't make a capital gain. Pretty interesting that Trump got his guy confirmed, he starts in two days, and the 2 year is yielding quite a bit more than t-bills. I'm more bullish on the US economy than I was when I was interested in trading the long bond moves. There are much better ideas out there
  20. So real, physical, constraints creating bottlenecks and slowing construction and full completions is being interpreted as bearish? I'm not hearing anything about huge data centers that get completed and sit un-utilized. The article is basically arguing the opposite. That they aren't able to build them and light them up fully as quickly as their PR has claimed.
  21. If it gets taken private I would assume it will be the founder with Byron's Trott's firm BDT/MSD and Fairfax. I assume it is BDT that got Fairfax interested in the company but someone else here may have chatted with the team and know the story
  22. Warren Buffett is famous because of his performance during a period he had more ideas than money. He was forced to make difficult decisions to cut good investments to fund insanely good investments routinely. He would raise funds by selling undervalued securities to fellow value investors. Having more capital than ideas is what slowed Brk to a crawl. It's fine, it's a fortress and can play a great role in a portfolio. But maintaining 3:1 leverage with negative cost float, despite being "riskier" is exactly what the special sauce is in this model and it is hard to maintain that leverage ratio if you are unwilling to use one of the capital allocation tools in your toolkit until you cross half a billion dollars in market cap. Maybe Berkshire was never cheap enough for Warren. But Fairfax was certainly cheap and they know what they own
  23. Yes I agree - the leverage from float, the willingness to opportunistically shrink equity through repurchases earlier in their evolution (which helps maintain that float leverage). Quite a few capital allocation options tee-ed up and the ability to chose between them / when to do what, etc.. makes for a better investor. Becoming massively overcapitalized in t-bills doesn't lead to optimal outcomes but certainly comes in handy on that 1 day out of 1000 you're the only one situated like that.
  24. So my entire point.
  25. Yeah I wasn’t at all saying that Lauren wasn’t qualified to be on the board and makes a good board member. I was saying a member of the board of directors shouldn’t be pitching the stock as a Berkshire from an earlier date. We do those comparisons here but we are not board members. Prem would NEVER do that. There’s no comparison to Wally Weitz because of where BRK is today but if you saw a Berkshire board member pitching it as “Home Depot but 30 years ago” at an investor conference there would be some eye rolls… Davis going on a podcast interview talking about the board’s responsibility to maintain the culture after Warren or dividend policy when excess cash overwhelms is not remotely similar to Ackman or Lauren putting together “the next Berkshire Hathaway” slides as a pitch for a stock they own a ton of. I think if it was any other company you fan-boys would see it
×
×
  • Create New...