gfp

Well not that it matters much but the newswires are showing that both RBC and BMO have increased their "price targets" for FFH. RBC from $1085 -> 1200 ( I assume this is CAD and they aren't very bullish) USD, good for them BMO from C$1550 -> C$1650

Russia invaded Ukraine?

Well now you are just handing out the answer. This is one remnant of the company Prem and Buffett reference periodically

The hint made me think of RLI (replacement lens insurance for contact lenses originally !!) but despite having a similar return profile since 1999 it isn't the chart you posted. Plus RLI has a data series going back to 1972. Oh well keep guessing

Berkshire writes some very large, very long tail policies. They are a specialist in messy long tail stuff like the Lloyd's deal and the more recent AIG deal. They also write some shorter stuff like 1 season Cat and a lot of what GEICO writes - but I wouldn't say that Berkshire's business is shorter duration than Fairfax's on average. An example: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1541TN/ $10 Billion premium paid to Berkshire up front (float). First claims payments by Berkshire didn't start to go out for many years later. A description from the WSJ at the time: "The agreement with Berkshire’s National Indemnity Co. requires AIG to pay the first $25 billion of claims as they come due. It is expected to be at least several years before Berkshire would begin tapping the roughly $10 billion for its portion of responsibility. The Berkshire unit will pay 80% of net losses and related loss-adjustment expenses if more than the $25 billion is needed for policyholders. Berkshire’s exposure is capped at $20 billion."

There is not a ton of difference really. FFH.TO trades in Canadian dollars and is marginable. FRFHF trades in US dollars and is usually not marginable. Sometimes in a US-domiciled IRA it is easier to buy FRFHF since you can't borrow Canadian dollars and it adds an extra step to first purchase the exact amount of Canadian currency you need to make the trade and then buy the FFH.TO. In taxable accounts I just buy the Toronto listed shares.

I'll agree to disagree on that one!

While a dividend is a dividend, I don't think it will have much of an effect here since Eurobank is receiving equity method accounting. We are already recognizing our full share of Eurobank's profits as profit so a Eurobank dividend won't likely show up in the official 'interest and dividend income.'

Thanks, I couldn't find it in my own downloads. Didn't think to download it again and check the pdf meta data.

Does anybody remember the date that the Annual Report / shareholders letter was released last year? I couldn't find a press release. I suppose I could check my 'downloads' folder..

Were there any surprises in the Q4 earnings? Seems like we knew all of that ahead of time: TRS profit, Micron profit, October bond moves, interest rates move for the quarter, lack of big Cats, etc

I assume Mr. Block will be long gone by the AGM. I think Fairfax does have a more "accurate" or "up-to-date" book value than, say, Berkshire and should trade at a lower price to book ratio than Berkshire all else being equal (they are not equal, Fairfax has higher growth, more float leverage and generally lower quality earnings vs. BRK). Berkshire's carrying values rarely get re-marked higher by transactions. Marmon and Pilot are two recent examples of required Fairfax-style write-ups but we will probably never see BNSF or GEICO marked up on Berkshire's balance sheet.

With age, Mr. Thebeau, you will gain some humility and realize that you are not all knowing in all things and that everybody else around you are not entirely clueless idiots. In most of your posts on this message board, you have an absolutist, I told you so attitude that suggests youth and inexperience. The combative, unpleasant tone of your posts does nothing to help the collegial atmosphere we have developed here over decades. Take it easy and enjoy the ride. (and no, as you are about to suggest, I am not long a bunch of bonds at 4% and getting blown up. nor do I own paramount or xyz losing investment you so wisely called)

I think that was Prem hollering something on a hot mic - not sure what he said but it might have just been a greeting to the next analyst.

Call over

Long history of reserve redundancies. Question was about reserve releases. Over time our reserve releases could well be significant. 4th quarter gets more "full" reviews for reserve releases / adjustments. 2016 and 2018 years at Allied and Crum & Forstner have had some unfavorable development similar to the industry experience at large. That effect is overwhelmed by positive adjustments elsewhere and for other years.

Interest & Dividend income "locked" at approx. $2 Billion annually for approx. 4 years. If soft landing, we can renew at these rates. If hard landing, interest rates can go down, but the spread on corporate bonds can increase. Atlas forecast - $300 million going to $600 million by 2025 and Fairfax still sees that forecast as appropriate.

Disclosure regarding associates that have been on the balance sheet since Jan. 1 2020. Cash in / cash out / profits booked / contingent liabilities question. Will you be disclosing these transactions? Jen Allen taking the question. "disclosed under IFRS in our annual report" Block, "Rather than going for the bare minimum that IFRS requires, why not go for enhanced disclosure. Why leave it there?" Next question please

Carson Block question!

Q&A now Odyssey re quota share non-renewal question - $340m unearned premium returned to client - residential property quota share (was 2 year deal, didn't see the profits there). Odyssey non-renewed it and returned the unearned premium. Brit pullback on D&O, Cyber and Cat risk question where do you see best opportunities, where do you see other areas where you want to be cautious Pricing on reinsurance, mostly still seeing double digit price increases on the property side. Insurance - mid-single digit price increases. D&O and cyber price growth slowing and actually reducing

Jen Allen is now going through the allegations in the report by grouping them into 4 categories. Started with Digit valuation and now going through valuations of associates like Recipe.

The call is still in the prepared remarks, just wrapping them up now. Jen Allen speaking

It's back now

To be fair, hadn't they sold the new bonds in Q4 but had not yet fully repaid the old bonds they were essentially refinancing? They just announced the March 15 redemption yesterday. The 2024 notes weren't redeemed until January 29th 2024. But Fairfax had already raised $400m of the later-expanded 6% offering in December.

Year end results press release: https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/wp-content/uploads/02_February_15_2024-PRFIH-2023_Q4_Press_Release_Final.pdf surprising: " During the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 the company entered into agreements to sell its equity interest in NSE for gross proceeds of approximately $189 million (15.7 billion Indian rupees). The original cost of the company's investment in NSE was $26.8 million. On January 29, 2024 the company completed one of the sales and received gross proceeds of $132.3 million (11.0 billion Indian rupees). The remaining sales are subject to customary closing conditions and are expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2024."