gfp

Have Federal Reserve rate cutting campaigns resulted in higher multiples in the past? I haven't had that experience in my (admittedly short) 24-year career. I'm fine with being surprised to the upside.

I don’t think the potential IDBI bank deal is for $10 billion USD. It is not the entire company that is being offered. good to have some friends with capital when a deal comes along. Hey prem, who ya got?

Yeah, I heard it was Saharan dust but as we have seen, storms can start right there in the gulf and escalate quickly - they don't need to roll in from way out in the Atlantic to get big. Anecdotally, the recent category 2 hurricane, Francine, was very mild. The storm zig zagged East and the eye wall passed very close to New Orleans (it was a very wide eye). It was more like being in a car wash than a hurricane. Not much damage to property in my neighborhood. No claims on my block. There were flooding losses in Jefferson Parish, which tend to be covered by FEMA, auto insurers and some commercial policies but not your typical homeowner's policy. They are saying $1 Billion of damage in Louisiana from Francine, but I'll bet that is not the private insurance-insured figure. Either way, I don't expect it to be material to reinsurers.

Here's your chance to buy Walter Scott's fishing yacht - bid early bid often! https://www.barrons.com/articles/late-billionaire-and-berkshire-hathaway-board-members-yacht-ice-bear-heads-to-auction-e939f521

Berkshire the company might prosper in a bear market, but Berkshire the stock goes down a bunch just the same. Especially if it starts at the high end of its recent valuation range. Having $300+ billion in t-bills and huge operations in non-economically-sensitive industries (insurance, utilities, etc) will help a lot in a weak period for the global economy / stock market averages / whatever.

I think that's a "no" but we'll probably be able to tell in the next 10Q. There are several clues, including that it was an average price over multiple transactions on the same day, the high price, the optics of buying shares directly from a reporting insider/vice chairman of the board, and whatever the legal complications Greg references when mentioning that JOE can't buy Bruce's shares directly. Prem and Fairfax did it, of course, but that may be a Canada thing. BRK never directly bought stock blocks from the Gates Foundation, even though they were known to be a large daily seller of B-shares (and still are). Now, why didn't Ajit convert the A-shares into B-shares before selling? I'm sure Warren would have preferred that.

Your points are all good and I don't disagree at all but I will mention that Ajit has spent a lot of money on real estate over the years. Not half his net worth but a couple $15 million apartments (NYC and Florida), the NYC apt next door for $8.3m back in 2009, plus wherever he actually lives most of the time near Connecticut - I believe it is still a waterfront house in Rye, NY he has owned since the mid 90's (which was very inexpensive when he purchased it). But he has a $20m annual salary so I don't think a need for spending cash is behind his sale. He is in a very high tax bracket, could be in a class of people targeted by future tax increases, and Berkshire became pretty pricey.

Yeah me too - I used the November 410 puts and they worked out great. Sold the last of them today. Which contracts did you use?

If Fairfax exits a bit early and doesn't hold out for a high valuation, there is always the possibility they are an interested buyer for the "hedge blocks" for lack of a better term. They bought Prem's block - another case where "Fairfax" was both interested in buying and selling at a certain price - so it isn't too far fetched. If they wait for over-valuation to exit, which I doubt, they may not be a buyer of the hedge shares. Yes, I am in New Orleans proper, inland and east of the track. Plenty of rain today. The hurricane doesn't look too bad, we should be fine. Just waiting around to leave town until after the storm so we can check the properties.

The counterparties are the major Canadian banks. They are hedged. It is a routine transaction for them, not some big losing directional bet.

Just keep in mind that this isn't an instrument where you sell it and get the money to do something with. The cash flows have been flowing back and forth the entire time, settled up regularly.

Interesting chart. Is their "P&C Industry" just the US-based non-mutual P&C carriers? Seems like the "market cap" of State Farm, Allianz, Lloyds, Liberty Mutual, AXA, etc would be pretty big if somehow counted.

If OXY closed the quarter where it is now, it would be a $65m pretax hit. Less after taxes. That doesn't seem like a big factor

What really hurts the long tail / retroactive businesses is "social inflation" - which I take to mean the general increases in average jury awards. This type of inflation has been substantial and certainly isn't 1:1 with official CPI or other traditional inflation measures. Court system delays around the pandemic years pushed jury decisions and settlements out further as court systems slowed way down. More time before resolution might have increased the duration of that "float" but I'm sure that positive was more than undone by the extra year or two of social inflation in the US.

https://www.theinsurer.com/reinsurancemonth/reinsurers-may-give-up-rate-for-retentions-in-cat-but-buyers-face-casualty-challenges/?utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Reinsurers+may+give+up+rate+for+retentions+in+cat+but+buyers+face+casualty+challenges&utm_campaign=Remonth-General-Alert Lots of commentary and articles coming out around the annual industry conference / rendezvous in Monte Carlo.

Saw this article on Brit and thought some mind find it interesting here - https://www.reinsurancene.ws/brit-posts-80-5-undiscounted-cor-in-h124-pre-tax-profit-climbs-to-362-4m/

My impression was that Gayner wasn't even the "insurance guy" - he was the investment guy who eventually ascended to CEO. Either way, people are interpreting Gayner's "cryptic comment" in strange ways. What Berkshire deals have been leaked and hinted about publicly way in advance? Why would Berkshire sell MKL shares if it was interesting in acquiring the entire company? Why would MKL sell the entire company to Berkshire? How on earth would Tom Gayner be in the loop on hypothetical confidential negotiations between Chubb and Berkshire? Why would Chubb sell to Berkshire? "there are things going on that I'm not at liberty to discuss" sounds to me like MKL was never a Buffett position (no surprise, it's too small for him to mess with) and Todd or whoever gave Gayner an excuse. Maybe something like, "I'm not managing this certain pool of money any more because I have to focus on GEICO so we are liquidating my positions in this portfolio." Probably wrong but a lot more plausible than the above.

No I am betting on higher interest rates - this is just me putting on the position. Just a seasonal "farmer's almanac" type speculation that will naturally hedge some other positions I have ( I originally posted in the "buying" thread because I would prefer to express this trade with options but they aren't open for trading yet so I started with the TLT )

Whitney went to work for Stansberry's old company (Porter is no longer there, they recently broke up for the second time). Glenn Tounge is even on the board of directors. Whitney makes more money in the financial publishing business than he did as an investor. I guess he can do more good deeds with the higher income

I finally got my 100+ TLT price so I am starting to put this short on. Couldn't look worse for my trade from a "technical analysis" point of view but let's give it a whirl. Short TLT premarket at 100.20 / share and will look at the options when they are trading. Would not be surprised to see a quick pop to 101.

I have no idea, but he will certainly gain more privacy once he crosses below 10%. I don't expect him to stop before then. With BAC repurchases expected in the future, he would want to at least get a fair bit under 10% before stopping or the reporting issue would just creep up again. My guess is that if BAC's market price stays up here around $40 he will keep selling. He may stop if the share price falls. I would not be surprised to see him sell the entire position but we will only find out on 13fs and maybe the 10q.

With everything going on with US Steel, Cliffs and the rest of the steel and iron ore stocks - you really have to appreciate how well played the Stelco situation was for Kestenbaum and Fairfax. This one is looking pretty smart.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000095017024104183/xslF345X05/ownership.xml 11.1%

"What happens next?" I'll guess! Is it "rate cuts?"

I don't think Buffett thinks about the risk of being deemed an investment company at all anymore. It was decades ago he was careful about that. Berkshire has something like 400,000 employees and some of the largest operating businesses in the country. The securities are largely inside insurance companies. It's a non-issue. Even Munger - who was at risk (and probably technically was one) at DJCO just totally ignored the issue and paid it no mind.