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What are they thinking? We have all these wind mills in Iowa and solar in Nevada and elsewhere! https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/buffetts-berkshire-reports-new-stake-in-canadas-suncor-shares-spike.html Cardboard

Regarding Buffett, has any of you calculated or has in hand the rate of return of his disclosed stock investments within Berkshire since around 1998 vs the S&P 500? I don't think there is any outperformance at all. The reason why Berkshire has done so well on per share book value growth over the last 20 years is the structure of the company or built-in leverage via float and acquisitions using stock trading above book value. In terms of stock picking ability, I don't think that there is so much alpha to speak of. This is not to minimize what he has achieved via his company but, if he was a regular hedge fund manager, I can't see how he would have achieved such wealth at the size he got into in the last 20 years? Cardboard

Maybe this is helping the stock to move up today? Some decent bids. We should hear about Chad drilling/results anytime now. In the last call, they mentioned that the rig should be turning or very soon and that was 2 1/2 months ago... DPM also had a very nice run and gold remains in a solid uptrend having crossed $1,300 USD/oz. Sale proceeds from Union Group were deeply disappointing but, it remains a small asset. At least now they have enough ammo to offer a substantial partial repayment to the DC.PR.E holders combined with an extension. I am thinking that this would be the favoured outcome by preferred holders. As I mentioned previously there was an opportunity to ask for redemption at par on January 31, 2018 and only 303,265 were redeemed out of 611,695. Things were not looking so great either at that time... Cardboard

I am assuming that you have read this Petec based on your comments? http://www.peyto.com/Files/PMReport/2019/PMR20190204.pdf The mood is rapidly changing in Alberta and many CEO's who used to be pretty quiet are now very vocal. It would not take much to rally the population under duress to come at least partially to the scenario that I have mentioned. The hypocrisy and abuse especially from Quebec is starting to really anger Albertans and for good reason. Then you add the highly toxic combination of Trudeau who increased recently transfer payments to Quebec and comes at Bombardier's rescue whenever needed plus foreign organizations such as Rockefeller Foundation who trains and funds anti-pipeline groups to use Liberal courts to block everything and you are hitting boiling point. Cardboard

Major push to get TransMountain going if not: 1- End of transfer payments Eastward 2- Referendum to separate from rest of Canada 3- 51st States of America! Cardboard

"We used to think that drunk driving, 2nd hand smoke, wife beating, and suppressing women was 'OK' as well. " Maybe it has been for you but, it never has been for me. So slapping your wife was ok with you SD? Regarding this whole discussion, there is no environmental liability not being met. It is only a matter of who ends up paying? I continue to stand by my point that Canada has amongst strictest rules in the world and they are being followed. The issue here is a tiny minority or a company that fails AND where the assets being purchased in the liquidation process are not worth enough to cover both first creditors and environmental liabilities. By the way, it is again our so called perfect group of 6 big banks (per SD's admiration for the Canadian Banking Industry) who help to lever these things then, push their way around everybody at first sign of trouble to defend their obligations and throw these companies into receivership without any consideration for proper restructuring. "I think the AER will leave the requirement that companies can't make acquisitions unless they have an LMR greater than 2." Even in a bankruptcy, environmental liabilities follow in their entirety with the assets and purchaser is subject to these rules to ensure they are solvent. The Redwater example is a special case where the banks were once again able to push their way around by creating good company and bad company and prompted the regulator to modify its rules. Environmental liabilities is an on-going cost of the business met over decades or financially similar to a very very long term lease. To call this first lien or above everything else is not right and will only increase cost of capital for all players even if perfectly sound once again because big banks will use this as an excuse to charge more. It should be the responsibility of the regulator who bless all these activities: acquisitions, new wells, etc. to ensure that the operator is financially sound when they deliver these permits. If not, what are they doing exactly? Cardboard

Canada is a house of cards. Unsustainable, unaffordable housing prices in biggest cities. Big banks or an oligopoly acting as a cartel and a huge chunk of Canadian pension plans. Alberta and Saskatchewan subsidizing socialist East or mainly Quebec and starting to have enough. Uncompetitive, high taxes, foreign dollars moving out. HQ's leaving Toronto just like they left Montreal years ago. A federal government spending like drunken sailors (well, stoned sailors now) with zero visible benefit and pushing a feel good leftist agenda. Don't fall for current mirages. Time of reckoning is coming. Cardboard

So awesome! My vote for MVP: Julian Edelman!

Another decision indicating that Canada is closed for business and its people will suffer. Already, decommissioning liabilities are amongst highest in the world due to very strict rules. In the meantime the U.S. keeps on flaring natural gas and all over the world. Now, by making this liability top priority vs other creditors including pension (I assume), then you have raised cost of capital for ALL the players instead of addressing an issue that is small in the grand scheme of things as most companies don't go bankrupt. And when I read some empty statements such as these I can only shake my head: "Creating prudent incentives within the industry, establishing a global precedent, and making an effort to quantify externalities? Canada, you've done it again!" Nobody gives a shit about what Canada does. Not the U.S., not China, not Europe. Not even the Australians who were only too happy to see that girl from Saudi Arabia go to Canada after Trudeau and Freeland saw an opportunity to make the news. The world will go on poluting and Canada in a few years from now will see a lot of unemployed. Just watch! Cardboard

What I posted on September 12: ""Accordingly, during 2017, the Corporation has impaired its carrying value in Union Group to its 40% share of the value of Union Group’s interest in ICC Labs Inc. In determining its 40% share of the value of ICC Labs Inc., the Corporation applied a liquidity discount of 30% to reflect the regulatory escrow arrangements required under the rules of the TSX Venture Exchange, and to accommodate any obligations that may arise that would otherwise erode value. The Corporation anticipates that the determination of fair value may vary significantly in future periods, both as a result of changes in the price of ICC Labs Inc., and also as Union Group provides third-party evidence of the value of its underlying assets. There can be no certainty as to the magnitude of these potential changes." I think that 30% is a pretty significant discount now considering that Aurora is highly liquid (ICC transaction represents only 3.6% of shares of ACB), there is no hold period per the press release (unless there is in the agreement) and that Union Group other asset is a 5.3 MW hydropower plant in Peru (must be worth something). What are Union Group liabilities is unclear but, I would say that if you write-off the power plant in full, that it should account for the accounting issues. The rest seems to be oil & gas land. There is no mention of debt anywhere. So this asset would be worth (40 million shares of ICC at $1.95 held by Union Group) x 40% held by Dundee or $31.2 million. And this would be tax free since they bought their Union Group stake for $50 million U.S. The bigger question IMO is can they force a liquidation of Union Group (they hold 40%) or force a distribution of ACB shares? We would have to dig into the filings of Union Acquisition Corp. which is registered with the SEC (LTN on NYSE) to try to find out more about the structure of Union Group."

Less than half the value of highly liquid Aurora shares alone. Yeah morons. Cardboard

Hey guys I feel like you don`t understand what he is doing and has done. He basically looks for stocks with strong momentum. Buys them. Then if they go down for some reason afterwards he sells after they drop 10% below his cost. I am also assuming that the stops are moved higher as the stock moves higher. So he can`t suffer from a large drawdown or over 10%. Since he is looking for stocks using technical indicators (trying to gauge interest via supply and demand for shares), he does not "fall in love" with his stocks like us value investors as we look at calculated intrinsic value. If they don`t go up, they are not worth holding, period. To figure out if this works, he ran historical models and apparently that it does even after accounting for the mis-starts on some of them when the 10% safety valve is triggered. Anyway, Muscleman that is my understanding. You are also not the first guy that hear of using technical analysis and making money as there are many ways to skin a cat. If you would not mind sharing some of the technical tools that you are using to detect momentum that would be appreciated. I will continue using value investing since that is what I have known and used with success for years but, would not mind tools to improve my entry points. Cardboard

Patriots also made terrible calls IMO. First, interception of Brady being at the 1 or 2 yard line... Run, try a clear/easy pass or lose the down then score 3 points. Then twice missed on a 4th down going for inches instead of scoring an easy 3 points. That is a lot of points missing on the board. If it had not been for incredible catches by Gronk, Hogan and Eddelman they would have lost this easily. Brady`s passes were not accurate at all in my book other than late in the 4th quarter. Tough to blame receivers on such tough catches. I like Brady but, he will need to step up his game for the Superbowl. Belichick too!

Finally!!! And I will be able to stop listening to loser Romo and leftist Nantz!

If the Pat's lose it is all about Brady's imprecise passing tonight.

What a start for the Pats!!! Nice!

Pathetic! I can't believe that such miss cannot be called or overturned by a referee simply watching TV. And it is for every sport. How retarded is a goal judge in hockey with today's technology? How hard is it to detect if a puck breaches the plane of a goal? Cardboard

Thanks again Muscleman. Yes, value investing has a lot of flaws. It is a method trying to use logic and math in a world where supply and demand for securites are not entirely driven by such factors. At least in the short term. Moreover value investing is trying to find and buy securities for less than they are worth. So you have to be right on defining that value which is pretty hard (dynamic world for companies and their prospects, interest rates, etc.) and if the market is truly wrong then what is going to prompt that revaluation? In some ways, when you are looking for these hidden gems, they are either in a dark alley where very few go or you are hunting into a trash can. So in essence, most of these things are better left alone or they are the definition of a good short: have problems and no buyers for them. Graham tried to solve part of that problem with 100 net-nets or buying at 2/3 of such a low ridiculous level that technically sellers were pretty much exhausted and holding so many allowed for some miracle to arise in many of them (catalyst) for value to be realized. Buffett has modified the strategy over time, mainly because he got too large and the strategy was found by others, to quality companies trading for less than they should be. This makes it much more difficult IMO because you need to be right at predicting the future while Graham didn`t have to. However, the largest difficulty IMO is to overcome one factor: greed combined with over-confidence. We are afraid to miss. We do our analysis, buy, then can`t figure out why others do not see the same mouth-watering easy money? Then the stock falls or continue dropping and we go back to check our math and assumptions and think that we are still right even if some new "little" issues have come up (sometimes nothing has come up) and hold on or average down. A stop-loss? Heck no! Why? Once again, it is this fear to miss out on gains that we forecasted. And truly, the only way for these gains to appear (other than a take-over which is rare) is for people to have a larger desire to buy than to sell and this should be visible on the chart with the stock going up vs going down. So using technical analysis to avoid a falling knife does have merit and using a stop-loss as a 2nd layer of security also seems to make sense since even technical tools will fail sometimes. I would also say that waiting for the inevitable market pull backs which tend to happen at least once a year make for great entry points. Tax loss selling is another factor depressing further beaten up securities every year. I don`t think that there is a perfect answer nor tool that will work all the time. I have used trading value (sell cheap for cheaper stocks) as a mean to avoid getting paralyzed in a downturn with some success. I think it does help mentally as well to deal with what you mentioned. Cardboard

Thanks for sharing Muscleman. Very interesting. Would you mind sharing one example where the technique failed and why you think it did?

What is your new method? Sorry if I make you repeat. Cardboard

Do you think that I stop looking for value, sell everything, because I believe that the Fed is making a mistake? They basically admitted as such and changed their tune already which is a very big reason why the market has rebounded. These two forecasted rate hikes in 2019 will now be highly dependent on how economic data shakes-up. They are no longer clear either as to what is a neutral rate... Regarding the market, I would not quite claim victory yet, nor for the economy. Many companies have warned in various sectors. Economic data from most countries seems weak. A slowdown or less growth seems like a given. We now have a celebration due to China trade and relaxation of interest rate hikes. Brexit is still unresolved, lots of debt out there, government shutdown is getting long here. So is this just a deadcat bounce? Sell now to repeat again? So what do you recommend here genius? Cardboard

"-Fairfax followers are as bearish as I have seen since 2003." Seriously? Back then it traded well well below book value and it is not the case these days. Now they need to generate earnings at a reasonable ROE to justify trading above book and to move up. Cardboard

Rotten history. I recall the rolling blackouts, manipulation of natural gas prices, Erin Brochovich... Got to be something better to buy and study out there. Cardboard

So, how many of you have sold their Berkshire shares this morning? Maybe this is a wake-up call for some but, reality is the following: no matter who is in charge after Buffett the magic is over. This will become a regular conglomerate or holding company and will be valued by the market based on value of holdings and earning power. There is a strong possibility that a non-negligeable discount will be applied permanently by the market since this confidence question as to how effectively future cash flows will deployed will linger. Cardboard

"Can we identify what and who succeeds in India over the next 20-30 years?" Copper and most commodities will be greatly needed. Cardboard