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Larry Summers: 50 percent chance of a US recession by 2020 http://www.cnbc.com/id/105577126 Always thought this guy was a moron. More confirmation. What a useful prediction! Can claim being right either way. Cardboard

Goodman said the following in his opening remarks (sorry if not typed exactly but, I am sure it is close): "Optimistic that good things will happen in next quarterly cycle." Parq is being restructured and latest deal will likely be made with same financier who, if we tie the dots from what was said in the call, has signficant experience in hotels/restaurants. DPM definitely looks like on the right track and gold finally seems to be catching a bid. Chad could be enormous. Rig is now in place and drilling should start any time. They are talking potentially 100,000 bls/d with 5% royalty. China firm is right accross border with similar field and geology and producing. And more liquidation of smaller holdings is likely. So I expect some kind of turnaround events that could change things dramatically over next 3 months. Cardboard

LOL! So do you ignore also Buffett when he lies saying that he pays less taxes than his secretary? Ignoring payroll tax. Or when he calls for a world with more income equality while he does all he can to avoid taxation and all he can to squeeze as much as possible from his workers a la 3G? Or when he said in 2004 that our trade deficit was unsustainable and proposed a like tarrif? Cardboard

"So go do it on one of the other million political websites on the internet so it doesn't affect our investment returns you loud-mouthed leeches. " Hmmm... sounds like you are the leech here or the one feeling entitled to receive something to help your investment returns from other visitors. Obviously for free I might add and not necessarily giving anything back in return. Cardboard

Delonex is private if I am not mistaken and is this being considered material event as I consider it? Cardboard

I want to hear about Chad's first oil by Delonex. This is key and would be phenomenal news. I could not find anything on the Net. Would have to get info from some government office in Chad or Delonex itself. Cardboard

Yes and same for oil, forex and countless securities: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/ex-jp-morgan-trader-pleads-guilty-to-manipulating-metals-markets.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cstory%7C&par=yahoo&yptr=yahoo Cardboard

Added to T-TOG after earnings report. A pearl available at a really good price. Cardboard

"Trump will get backlash if the Fed bends." Every President went to the Fed and asked for rate increases to be delayed and the like. Greenspan was notorious for it and always avoiding raising rates around election time. So he can go F himself regarding earmuffs as I consider him one of the worst Fed Chairman ever or one who entertained both major bubbles. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/greenspan-says-that-before-trump-other-presidents-criticized-fed-policy-all-the-time.html Now, because Trump did it publicly, he will get disapproval from Democrats and whatever committee is responsible at Congress to supervise the Fed. This opens the door for the Fed to ignore him and do whatever it wants IMO. Not long ago, a mere 10 years, people were rushing to save the financial system from a disaster with TARP and all kinds of new means. The cause was banksters, politicians via Freddie/Fannie and everyone wanting to be into a home and causing a huge bubble. Home ownership reached almost 70%. Now look at this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home-ownership_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Home_Ownership_rate.png We have gotten out of the emergency room, got rid of crutches and now walking again. When I look at this chart, I don't see a bubble or a party. I am seeing the largest expenditure made by a family getting back on track. While I am a very strong advocate of personal responsibility, I am not in favour of pulling the rug from under people's feet who have qualified for a much more stringent mortgage after all that has happened just because the Fed thinks that inflation may come back. Even less to enrich some of the folks on this thread who are salivating at opportunities from a bust. Cardboard

Trump whining could be absurd but, the rate of change is the concern IMO and not absurd. As I explained in my anecdotes in my original post, going from something like 2.8% to 3.5% in the course of one year on a mortgage represents a 25% increase in interest paid. This is very significant for lower income people. Where is the outrage about income inequality here? Moreover, I don't believe that economic impact is well understood at all on the combined effect with unwinding of QE. So yes I am concerned. The Fed has never engineered a soft landing. Never! Booms and busts are something that once again is very hard on lower income folks. Cardboard

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/10/23/former-fed-chairman-paul-volcker-thinks-were-in-a-hell-of-a-mess.html 2% inflation target is a number picked out of thin air according to Volcker. Oh yeah, and all Presidents push the Fed. Maybe less publicly but, when the big guy tells you to do something, you tend to obey. I actually think that words behind closed doors are stronger than what Trump is doing: Trump will get backlash if the Fed bends. Cardboard

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/fed-will-ultimately-push-the-us-into-recession-strategist-says.html Why should we ever have an inverted yield curve? I understand the desire to slowdown the economy at times to avoid rising inflation but, if you get that result isn't a clear sign that you have over-tightened? Right now the Fed wants to increase short term rates but, at the same time we have both the Fed and ECB reversing their bond purchase program. How do you account for both on the yield curve and economic impact? Anyway, just an anecdote. I was looking to replace my car lease with another one from the same manufacturer. Turns out that yields have gone up by 2.5% in just over 3 years. The impact is around 21% more per month than I was paying for a vehicle of similar value at original purchase. This has made me reconsider the entire leasing vs owning idea and even owning for a lot longer. Also in the process of locking my mortgage for 5 years. Yields have gone up by around 0.75% since last year. While it seems like a small percentage increase, the impact on monthly interest paid is large vs what it was last year at same time since the increase in interest paid is around 22%. So it seems to me that the increase in long term rates that we have seen already and reflected in the two largest expenditures of a regular family as described by my experience above is enough to cause a pause in spending behavior without any further increase in short term rates. And that is from a consumer that has a fair bit of financial flexibility. What about paycheque to paycheque folks? Thoughts? Cardboard

T-WCP really late today. Top notch light oil Canadian producer, cheap at below $60,000 per flowing, doing everything right, buying back shares, CEO owns $25 million worth of stock, dividend yield of now 4.6%! Cardboard

Yes, and what is also interesting is that it continued to move up today after a big up move yesterday while it was not the case at all for other gold stocks as gold retreated. So to move in such fashion "against" your commodity, it means pretty good fundamentals/news coming up at the micro level. Cardboard

T-CQE A 20 bagger in the making. This is an opportunity like ABX Air or ATSG was in 2008-2009 at $0.20/share. In this case however, there is no risk of bankruptcy... Cardboard

WCP-T Best in class, cheap, CEO owns a lot. Cardboard

Please let us know your thoughts. I have read The Most Important Thing and thought it was really good. Wondering if this is somewhat repetitive. Cardboard

"In the third quarter, the Company advanced the start date of approximately 26 mmcf/d of natural gas transportation to December 17, 2017 from April 2018, increasing it total firm service from its Simonette property to AECO of 35 mmcf/d until March 2026. The Company will no longer rely on short term and interruptible service which is expected to improve the Company’s netbacks by approximately $0.20/mcf or $1.20/boe, with all other variables remaining consistent. The cost of this transportation will be reported as transportation expense and the Company expects its sales pricing to be at a premium to AECO based on its heat content. In September 2017 the National Energy Board approved TransCanada Pipelines application for new transportation service from Empress, Alberta to Dawn, Ontario. The Company has contracted to ship 10,850 GJ/d of natural gas to the Dawn hub at a cost of $0.77/GJ for a period of 10 years beginning April 1, 2018. The transportation commitment provides market diversification for approximately 20 percent of its current natural gas production. Historically, pricing at the Dawn hub has been at a premium to AECO. As part of this commitment, the Company entered into a five year contract to transport AECO gas to Empress at an annual cost of approximately $750." I cannot confirm on which system is the 35 mmcf/d to AECO. At Simonette, they have a 200 mmcf/d meter station on TCPL and a 120 mmcf/d on Alliance so they have the option to ship non-contracted volume on both but, no need at the moment. Cardboard

Key metrics to look at IMO not in order are: 1- Per flowing: EV/boe/d at $13,000. For natural gas weighted producers, around $20,000 - $25,000 per boe/d right now. 2- EV/DACF at 4.0 times. Around 6 times right now. 3- EV/PDP NAV at 1.03 times. Around 1-1.2 times. (Note that nothing is factored into PDP NAV yet for recent Dunvegan wells). I prefer to use EV since it eliminates how a company is financed: through the eyes of an acquirer or private market value. Good news is that CQE is now very well financed and has a ratio of Net debt/FFO of around 3.5 times. If you do a some of the parts on this company: Montney gas, 50% of gas plant, NOL's, Dunvegan light oil, contracted access to Dawn, you will get a much higher value than $0.20/share or peer comparison. Finally, this company has a 50 year reserve life based on 2P at current production rate. This is much higher than most in the 15-20 years range. Birchcliff is another one that score high on that or 35 years. Regarding shipping these guys have full contracted natural gas egress and their light oil and condensates sell for a premium (not at all WCS). Cardboard

If you want to make money, buy Cequence Energy in Toronto (CQE) at $0.05/share and thank me later! The company has refinanced its $60 million loan with CPPIB a few weeks ago at 5% fixed for 4 years with no principal repayment until maturity. This is a very favorable arrangement and even larger companies could not get such terms or for example see Baytex. At the same time, they raised $8.6 million through a rights offering/flow-through shares. However, unlike most flow-through which are issued at par or above current trading price, these were issued at $0.035/share which was well below current trading price when announced (around $0.10). This seems to have created a very interesting dynamic, hence the opportunity, where holders are selling these for a small profit. There must also be holders who now have a too large position due to the mechanics of the rights offering and lightening up. The upside with CQE is enormous. To trade at equivalent metrics to its peers, it would have to trade at around $0.20/share. However, this does not take into account continued success at Dunvegan which is light oil and where they did hit some of the best wells in Alberta. Two more wells are planned to be drilled by the end of this year. There is also no value attributed for their gas treatment plant which they own 50% with Kanata. And this does not take into account either AECO which is now trading well above $2 due to very positive inventory fundamentals both in Canada and in the U.S. and an earlier start to the winter out in Alberta. Then there is LNG Canada having been approved yesterday which will consume 20% of Canadian gas and more as they expand and more projects go ahead. Cardboard

Then you are out of your mind! https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/sen-sanders-wants-to-break-up-jp-morgan-berkshire-hathaway.html Cardboard

Thanks for the thoughtful post Viking! Reading through this thread, it sounds like many think that the U.S. got nothing out of it. So why did Freeland and Trudeau wasted so much time and created so much uncertainty before signing this "gift" from Trump? I will say it again, it was milk and Trudeau trying to avoid any concession on it to win votes mostly in Quebec! Once they realized that Trump was serious to hurt the auto sector, they were forced to give in. There wasn't so much to be negotiated or corrected between Canada and the U.S. on trade as the main issue with NAFTA or the job vacuum comes from Mexico. Some tweaking for sure and then the U.S. trying to take down some protective tarrifs imposed by Canada (dairy). Now, I recognize that some of you may never have been inside a Canadian manufacturing plant but, I can tell you that a key concern of people working there has been outsourcing to Mexico due to low wages for years and now decades. When you produce something in Canada and your key market is the U.S., it becomes quite obvious that producing in Mexico is a solid option. There is no easy solution to that problem IMO. More education in higher wage countries is one but, very long term. Higher productivity is another but, you would be surprised how easily that gets "exported": modern machinery, better processes can get moved quite easily. So eventually the sourcing decision comes down mainly to wages, availability of skills, logistics (distances), currencies and security of supply. Cardboard

I don't claim anything. I typed Chicago, Illinois on the Walmart website. First store that appeared was 2844 N Broadway Street. Clicked on that and price for a gallon of 2% milk is $1.78. Maybe that there is big sale going on? Nonetheless, I am correct in stating that your New Jersey price does not represent U.S. average per your own findings. Second, I may have exaggerated about double the price on milk but, it is close to that in some provinces. I still don't see how it can be denied that people pay more up here. Cardboard

RB picked about the highest price possible in the U.S. It could have been unintentional, maybe he was simply traveling there? Most other places it is a lot cheaper than he mentioned. How is that for your DCF comment? Cardboard

$1.78 U.S./gallon in Chicago for the brand you quoted RB or a city comparable to Toronto (size and middle of country): https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-2-Reduced-Fat-Milk-1-gal/10450115 Just play with the city and find out for yourself. Cardboard