Cardboard

"The lack of pain has made us weak. Adversity creates strength and resilience. Look at how tough people were 80 years ago and now...look at us!" So if income inequality doesn't create adversity, then what is the problem here?

"There will be pain but pain isn't always bad." Trying to learn from others mistakes should be a better strategy. Pain is always painful and never welcomed. I am no sadist or masochist! Cardboard

Bought a little bit of SPY puts. It is the wrong time of year to do this (Nov to Apr tend to be strong) and just broke out on chart but, optimism seems a little too strong for my liking. It will be a small hedge/trade.

If he still has half a brain he won't endorse that Warren scumbag!

My view is that you have to respect what the stock market is telling you. This woman is highly unattractive both mentally and physically. If you thought that Hillary was a warmonger then have a look at her facial expression. It is evil in person. Even big money Liberals asset managers are coming out against her which was not the case for Clinton. Then think about all the industries that will push against her along with their employees. Already Colorado, New Mexico and Texas Democrats are pushing back on fracking ban idea. Then you have Ohio, Pennsylvania. 4 are key swing States. North Carolina and Florida are home to BAC and many smaller banks along with multiple money management firms. Even New Jersey could be up for grab by Republicans with such anti-financials programs. Guys like Zuckerburg are promising to fight for their company. What do you think that means? The entire big tech community is a target. So no money from them to push for her election and no praise. So I would not go too crazy on puts and the like as the market has already decided that she has no chance. She is a dream for some of the havenot's, dreamers and eco-nuts but, American society as a whole is smarter than that. Heck I thought that Democrats were smarter than that and could find a suitable candidate. Doesn't mean that buying some puts right now is a poor strategy as the VIX is close to 12 and indexes are at all time highs but, I would not buy them to hedge against her as the market is saying loudly: she is not happening. Cardboard

Sure high unemployment is nothing to freak about ::) I guess for academia with government jobs it is nothing to freak about. Really wonder what these trolls are doing on an investment website?

One only needs to look at how bad Canada has underperformed (TSX) and how much capital has left the country to realize the impact of a bad administration. While some hate oil & gas, it still is a major component of the Canadian economy and with policies in place (lack of support for pipelines, carbon tax, Bill C69, etc.) billions in projects have been cancelled, foreign funds have left in droves and most energy foreign firms have left the country (ConocoPhillips, Statoil, Apache, etc.) and even Canadian firms are relocating (Encana this week). Some may argue that some sectors have thrived or things like Shopify but, it is still a net loss for the country as Shopify would still be there. There has also been zero effort to match the U.S. on corporate tax reduction or our biggest competitor to attract capital. So when a leader with executive powers is promising to wage war against banks, fracking, drug companies, tech companies, billionaires, raising taxes on middle/upper class among others, you should pay attention. It is a very significant portion of the economy that would suffer from uncertainty or much larger than Canada with O&G. And once stocks retreat, it is a vicious circle that gets into motion. Anyone who has been through 2008-2009 or any bear market should know that low interest rates won't provide any support when the herd starts to be afraid and wants out due to market losses. Then the economy starts to dive with poor first in line to be laid off and relying on food stamps to survive. This is the kind of experiment that no one should wish for as no one will benefit. If you decide to go all in cash and wait for that to happen, you will also either get in way too early or will never deploy since you will be scared shitless. Cardboard

"Liberals go directly from "Is the Earth warming?" to "OK great! Governments need more power, money, and control!"." Yeah, raise taxes on carbon then spend it on whatever they please with zero carbon reduction. LOL!

"The fact that no one can do this, means that scientists are all in agreement and the fact is likely true." That statement is false as there are scientists who disagree with urgency and cause/effect. Those who dare to bring these are rapidly dismissed and marginalized. Exact opposite of proper science or to examine data that may change your theory/model.

https://m.facebook.com/overabarreldoc/videos/786770458437667/

NFLX short is getting interesting again. I may do it, will see.

"Yes you are using an anecdote and I'm discussing real data from 1900-2017. Between 1938 and 1953 no Catagory 5 hurricane occurred. Between 1961 and 1967 the same thing. 1980-1988... Thus it's not rare that category 5s don't appear once every 10 years. Of course, there will be noise year. But you look at long term data: between 1886-2005 there was an average of 9 hurricanes a year. In 1945-2005 11 hurricanes per year, in 1990-2010 14 hurricanes per year. Of course, you get variation across time but the trends stay consistent. source: " No, no, no, no anecdotes: 10 years without any hurricane landing in Florida!!!!!!! NONE AT ALL!!!!! While you are quoting data with no category 5 hurricanes! Give me a break!

Doesn't take a lot of research to demonstrate that hurricanes frequency and severity for example has almost zero correlation to so called warmest years on record. Any investor in Fairfax or any cat exposed insurer would know that between 2005 and 2016 there has been none, zero hurricane landing in Florida. I mean not large ones or category 4 but, none at all! "Hurricane Hermine made landfall near the Big Bend of Florida, making it the first hurricane landfall to the state since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Many counties received flooding up to nine feet due to river swelling." Hurricanes hitting Florida is as common as a snowstorm in Minnesota. This 10 year period was absolutely shocking to these investors as they were expecting a continuation of really nasty 2004 and 2005 combined with prediction of warmer oceans generating even more hurricanes. Maybe that these 10 years were the coolest of all times? Ask Ericopoly about his sleepless nights in 2006 when he made his first mega win with options on Fairfax. Thank goodness climate change was wrong because if not Ericopoly would still be a regular employee at Microsoft!

"However there is little question that hurricanes are getting stronger, doughts more frequent and fires harder to fight." More statements with zero proof in reality nor in historical facts. By the way, if that is such an immediate danger why has Obama just bought a large mansion by the water? Or Al Gore in 2010 in California after warning the world that California would be submerged in 2020? https://www.apartmenttherapy.com/barack-michelle-obama-vacation-house-photos-36641142 https://me.me/i/al-gore-spends-almost-9-000-000-on-ocean-front-property-in-295dd91986ee49429b34419c4970d99a I can't believe that people are still falling for this bs. Sherlock Holmes was right: follow the money!

Thanks man! What got you interested into these real estate companies? Personally I have rarely if ever found a REIT that I liked: not cheap enough, growth too low, ponzi scheme like, too much debt, etc. A few exceptions but, really rare due in large part to people reaching for yield. Kind of turned me off on real estate. However, these shouldn't be lumped into the same category. Probably one more reason why these are cheap.

Hey Gregmal, if you had a gun to your head: GRIF or CTO and why?

"Or buy puts when VIX is<14 and SPY >300. I am 3:0 on this trade. I think I made about 70% on average each time, just closed my last round yesterday. It’s definitely a no brainer, especially when in addition to above Trump says that trade talks are going well." We are getting close for this one to work again IMO. There could be some interesting excitement if a semi-trade deal happens (seems like the odds are raising) but, it could be short lived as focus will return to interest rates not coming down due to it, incomplete deal and a weak Q3 for earnings.

These two companies already have publicly available and audited financial statements. The timing to raise capital is excellent and these are large, public for decades, proven and profitable enterprises unlike momo garbage such as WeWork. Once a large and reputable investment banker is selected, it won't take very long to get pieces into place as they are incentivized to get it done so they get paid. Think about the Saudi Aramco IPO. It was first thought about around 4 years ago. They had no public financial statements, never been audited, never had an outside engineering firm to audit their reserves or a requirement to be public, didn't know on which exchange to list, IPO delayed due to a large petrochemical acquisition, IPO likely delayed due to poor market conditions for oil and corresponding valuation, government interference as this is their bread and butter, and on and on. Yet, they should be public in their own market by the end of this year. Plus for preferred holders, you won't have to wait 4 years (which I see as excessive anyway based on above) to know your fate as a resolution should be a pre-condition to start the IPO process. Cardboard

"Also, what percentage of your portfolio are you comfortable committing to these types of strategies? Although annualized gains on a single trade might look good, if you can only apply this to a small portion of overall portfolio the returns on your time and stress seem limited." Unfortunately, I think that you have to do that with a fairly large portion of your portfolio these days to generate any kind of attractive return. If not, might as well buy SPY and be done with it. We are in a sideways market where valuation is high and bargains are not say at 3 times earnings or selling for 1/2 of cash. It is quite interesting that LC and I are in agreement for once and he explained it in a much better way than I could: "First, you have a fair value which you believe BAC is worth. Lets say you think fair value or intrinsic value etc. is $35/share, well then you are buying at 77% of FV and selling at 85% of IV." If you look at anything cyclical, turnarounds, asset plays, moderate growers or where value investors typically gravitate they are all quite correlated to market movement right now. So even if your company is making solid progress, it always seems to be brought back down by macro and allowed only to go up when the market goes up. The very small or illiquid stocks may avoid some of that but, even there I am not completely convinced. It is also a different story for the hyper growth and things that cannot be rationally valued but, even these guys are hitting a lot of air pockets these days. There is no exact science to this and it is a case by case but, I think that the fear of missing out especially on mega caps is a big watch-out for investors right now. We always like to hold out to realize full value but, it seems rare these days that we are given this opportunity. So might as well try to take advantage of Mr. Market and risk to see one over-shoot a little. Even Buffett and his bunch trade around core positions if you look at their quarterly holdings. Not with Coke but, they are doing it with banks and other holdings. Then compare with charts or valuation to see when and why they do it?

"The rationale for this trade idea is almost completely backwards-looking, but the stock market is forward- looking." Well I agree with you and don't expect this to repeat forever and as I mentioned hindsight is 20/20. However, how do you solve or get out of the low interest rate situation? Forward looking today is that they are going down. A year and a half ago, they were supposed to go up. It seems to me that this situation or tug of war will go on for a long time with weak economic growth and lots of debt around the world. In the meantime, valuation is low and the business keeps on getting stronger over time. So it becomes a fight between the low interest rate headwind, valuation for bank assets and a growing business value. Point is that buy and hold does not seem adequate here. If you like such stocks, then it is only the fear of missing out that prevent you from getting out at the top of the range which is pretty clear for all of them.

BAC's attractiveness has been discussed ad nauseam on this site for years. Unfortunately, it now suffers from a disease called interest rates not going up. This disease is offset by retained earnings which continue to grow and solidify the business plus return of capital in the form of buybacks and dividends. If you had bought BAC at every time it touched $27 this year and sold it at $30, you would have made 11% each time not accounting for the dividend. This could have been repeated 4 times already or a 44% return and we are now closing in on $27 again (almost touched it this morning). The risk is that you get stuck with a high quality company trading cheaply if it goes well below $27 or fails to return quickly to $30. Or that you miss out on some larger upside above $30 if it doesn't fall back. Still how do you beat 44% in 9 months in a large mega cap with such little downside risk? Of course if there is a calamity then BAC could go bankrupt or be down a lot from $27 but, what would happen to the rest of the market? This could have worked with the other large bank stocks as well such as WFC, C, JPM and USB but, the channel is not as clear. While I know that hindsight is 20/20, I think that one could do much worst than trying this out. Cardboard

T-ARX

I find amazing that some people want to avoid looking or hearing about politics and then consider themselves investors. It is not that I like politics, especially the debate but, it is impossible to invest if you don't know what is likely to happen to regulations, taxes, laws and now we even have people on the left with some chances to take power attacking the capitalist system itself. Even if you buy index funds, you need to have an idea as to what these people are looking to implement. It is fine to put a blind on and hope for the best but, that is all you are doing hoping and not investing which is a process of determining when the balance of risk vs reward is on your side.

Stocks up 3 to 4% but, most traded preferreds down 2%... I wonder what is the message? I mean if it is more time than expected then both should be down. Or it is just that the preferreds moved up on Friday and not the stocks? Is this another one of these algo manipulative thing to sell the news and then grab more at a cheaper price? Price action definitely appears screwed up nowadays as Druckenmiller has observed.

Glad that I bought some on Friday! It may not amount to a great pop but, the train is finally leaving the station.