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Now official: https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/update-3-massive-canada-lng-project-gets-green-light-as-asia-demand-for-fuel-booms The economics are very positive with a much shorter route to Asia vs U.S. and massive natural gas reserves in the Montney that can be extracted for a very low cost. I now hope this goes ahead but, idiots such as Weaver and environmentalists dumbnuts will do all they can to still derail it. Read this below from a so-called expert on climate change... How could you be so myopic, and stupid, on what is a global phenomenon if true at all? On the other hand Jiang gets it! "It breaks my heart that the young people of today must watch as politicians who once professed to champion climate action and a hopeful vision for the future instead succumb to the temptation of short-sighted political wins," BC Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver said in a statement. Kirsten Zickfeld, an expert on climate change who is an associate professor at Simon Fraser University, said LNG Canada would be a huge emitter of GHGs. "The concern is that if the project goes ahead, it will wipe out any emission reductions that are done in other sectors across B.C.," she said in a recent interview. "Big emitting projects are not compatible with stabilizing the climate. It would be a climate catastrophe. We need to get off fossil fuels as much and as quickly as we can." But Wenran Jiang, a senior fellow at the University of British Columbia's Institute of Asian Research, said emissions should be viewed through a global lens and discussions about climate change need to go beyond country-specific targets. Mr. Jiang said LNG Canada would help China wean itself off coal-fired power plants that are major emitters of carbon dioxide. "If China burns natural gas from Canada to replace coal use, we would have a global level of reductions in CO2," he said. "A global effort should count and not just national borders. In my opinion, the more that we export LNG to China to erase coal use, the better the global CO2 reduction." Cardboard

Not much details but, I take it as a positive: https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aDC-2665869&symbol=DC&region=C Cardboard

To obtain in return more unqualified directors: https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/30/news/california-requires-women-board-of-directors/index.html Then after that it will be dictated how many directors of each race you should have, how many transgenders, etc. Cardboard

Donald Trump has showed that despite his temper that he is pragmatic and rational: he didn't let his emotion on Trudeau or Freeland ruin a business deal. And Trudeau finally did something right in the 3rd year of his term. Canada needs the U.S. more than they need us but, we both benefit enormously by continuing to trade freely. I am also very happy that throughout this dealing that millions of Canadians have learned something that they ignored or that they are paying a very high price (double) for milk, dairy, chicken and eggs. Personally, it makes little to no difference to my well being but, it does impact in a big way poor consumers. Where are supposedly caring Liberals to poor childrens and families? Of course, I expect the anti-Trump crowd of this website to say that this is all political drama and the like ::) Cardboard

T-GXE Lagging other heavy oil peers while acquisition is now closed. Due for a nice rebound. Cardboard

Is there leakage? "United Hydrocarbon International Corp. (“UHIC”) continues to advance its assets in Chad and it is expected that the first oil wells will be drilled in the third quarter of 2018." Quarter is ending in 6 days and oil there at over $80 Brent is highly significant to Dundee. I would think that someone knows what is going on in Africa right now. Is there any way to find out? Cardboard

Wait, he has to buy first the one from Stormy Daniels: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/stormy-daniels-claims-trump-didnt-want-to-be-president-in-her-book.html Cardboard

Well, I am quite happy that "jerks" such as Paul Singer exist and wish that Canada had way more of these. The amount of greed, corporate abuse, that goes on by so many executives is unbeliveable. They hide behind protective boards, have corporate funds available to hire the best lawyers. Many of them ruin people's lives who have put their hard earned savings into their firm. However, you will almost never see them take a pay cut, lose their severances, etc. So yes, they deserve to be exposed or like any politician. I would tend to believe that the number of executives getting caught with their pants down and doing a great job for shareholders must be minuscule. Cardboard

Unless I missed it, Parq is non-recourse isn't? Obviously, if they want to retain their equity investment, they have to keep injecting cash along with their partners to take it through start-up. Let's not be too dire about this one. This is prime Vancouver real estate with international hotels. There has been some slowdown due to crack down on money laundering by this "make people feel good", job destroyer, useless B.C. NDP government. This is temporary IMO. And Asians tend to love gambling and there are quite a few living in the area. Moreover, I never really felt the need to head straight for a casino in the middle of the summer: too many other fun things to do. I would imagine that I am not alone and that winter time, grey/rainy Vancouver will bring in more visitors. Regarding ICC/Union Group, yes I do believe that a recovery is quite probable. They own 40% of Union so they must have some say in what goes and/or there must be terms in the shareholder agreement indicating how one withdraws. I would also be shocked if the accounting issues at Union Group mean a full wipe-out of that investment. ICC is by far their largest and is just an independent holding unlike their hydro asset. The only way to wipe that out is that they have more hidden liabilities than this is worth: debt, unpaid taxes. Seems quite improbable to me but, who knows? That company just sponsored Union Acquisition Corp. registered with the SEC as I mentioned previously. If they are so fraudulent then, who would have injected funds into this? Finally, I am more confident about the Canadian cannabis industry sticking around. I would not buy since it seems awfully expensive but, players such as WEED and ACB will have a large market share and there are some provinces even now banning people from raising their own weed despite this being legal! My grandfather used to raise his own tobacco in his garden and nobody bothered him. You can also produce beer and wine at home for your own consumption. That is another fine Trudeau accomplishment or creating a regulated industry so that him, his cronies and government can all line up their pockets Cardboard

Excellent find Sculpin! There is nothing mentioned about this investment in their recent MD&A's. It must be hidden in the other categories. You should share to Roumell Asset Management to ensure that they know about this little nugget and pressure management to liquidate. That is another $25 million out of nowhere and with the other ICC investment, we now have near enough to redeem most of the DC.PR.E. And whatever is left can easily be extended or paid with holdco cash. I would even venture to say that $25 million is enough to redeem unhappy holders and extend the rest. As I mentioned previously, only a small portion exercised their right earlier this year to get redeemed. So between these two things that were totally unexpected (most had written off in full their expectation for Union Group recovery), we essentially put to rest any refinancing issue. So now attention should turn to bigger investments such as Chad over the coming weeks to see if we get first oil, refinancing of Parq and a potential sale of Blue Goose. Cardboard

T-MEG Any return of rationality on WCS differential should lead to large share price appreciation: Crude by rail is ramping up fast (talks of an additional 300,000 bls/d), Line 3 starting up in 2019 with extra 300,000 bls/d of capacity, lots of innovation on shipping bitumen (oil turned into solid/bricks, methods to reduce diluent, etc.) and there has been a large refinery in the Midwest processing a significant volume of Canadian heavy on maintenance restarting in October. Company has one of, if not best oil sands asset (SAGD) at Christina Lake with very low steam to oil ratio. So it is a low cost producer with still too much leverage but, generating free cash flow to repay its debt and still growing. There is also a large activist which was on the board who recently quit and who could now pressure for a sale of company. Cardboard

There is no issue at all buying companies with growing earnings and sales. It should actually be what you are looking for. However, when you throw out the window any kind of valuation yardstick and that you are buying simply because the company is doing great and the stock price is going up, then you become a speculator and not an investor. Cardboard

"Accordingly, during 2017, the Corporation has impaired its carrying value in Union Group to its 40% share of the value of Union Group’s interest in ICC Labs Inc. In determining its 40% share of the value of ICC Labs Inc., the Corporation applied a liquidity discount of 30% to reflect the regulatory escrow arrangements required under the rules of the TSX Venture Exchange, and to accommodate any obligations that may arise that would otherwise erode value. The Corporation anticipates that the determination of fair value may vary significantly in future periods, both as a result of changes in the price of ICC Labs Inc., and also as Union Group provides third-party evidence of the value of its underlying assets. There can be no certainty as to the magnitude of these potential changes." I think that 30% is a pretty significant discount now considering that Aurora is highly liquid (ICC transaction represents only 3.6% of shares of ACB), there is no hold period per the press release (unless there is in the agreement) and that Union Group other asset is a 5.3 MW hydropower plant in Peru (must be worth something). What are Union Group liabilities is unclear but, I would say that if you write-off the power plant in full, that it should account for the accounting issues. The rest seems to be oil & gas land. There is no mention of debt anywhere. So this asset would be worth (40 million shares of ICC at $1.95 held by Union Group) x 40% held by Dundee or $31.2 million. And this would be tax free since they bought their Union Group stake for $50 million U.S. The bigger question IMO is can they force a liquidation of Union Group (they hold 40%) or force a distribution of ACB shares? We would have to dig into the filings of Union Acquisition Corp. which is registered with the SEC (LTN on NYSE) to try to find out more about the structure of Union Group. Cardboard

"How much is it going to cost you if you don't have access to tide water for a decade or two?" Trudeau himself says it costs Canadians $15 billion/year and this is on the really low side IMO. Regarding burning natural gas to extract oil sands, where is this question regarding the vast majority of countries who simply flare natural gas (burn it with no use to get rid of it) to extract oil. Even conventional light oil. It was done in many U.S. States by the way until recently. How clean is Venezuela extracting their heavy oil? What about extracting oil in Chad, Rod? And by the way, we need heavy oil to drive Tesla's over asphalted roads. Now, every good idea to reduce waste, pollution should be looked at. Solar, wind, geothermal? At least in this country there is a genuine discussion to explore all alternatives while elsewhere? Moreover, if natural gas was trading at a reasonable price like for Dawn delivery in Ontario or Henry Hub vs this crazy AECO and Station 2 (severely discounted with spot sometimes negative!) it would force oil sands producers to be more creative on how they approach it too. There is already an incentive in place to reduce its use since they pay for it but, more normal prices would help. Natural gas for Kitimat delivery would certainly help with that problem. Cardboard

When it is an oil man from Calgary then yes, many will simply ignore the warning but, when it comes from Royal Bank of Canada's CEO, then it should merit more attention: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/rbc-chief-warns-investors-getting-impatient-on-trans-mountain-1.1133446 Another project on thin ice which was thought to be near certain is $40 billion Shell LNG Canada in Kitimat. The regulatory process is going well but, who knows if there is not some lawsuit to block everything? And once again, we have a Federal government hesitating to provide them with duty free steel import of modules for which no Canadian shop is capable of making. If you think that Trump is stupid then Canada and Justin at the helm is a pretty strong contender. Cardboard

Russians don't wait for climate change, they act and ship from worst conditions than Churchill: https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russias-icebreakers-make-it-king-of-the-arctic-and-amer-1791664539 Unfortunately, this country prefers giving away $15 billion/year to U.S. refiners and its citizens instead of finding ways to ship oil and its resources to other countries. U.S. "eco" donors truly found a way to kill Canada: train/support protesters with maybe $10 million. This is no conspiration theory, it is easy to find publicly who donates to these various organizations such as Natives and ecolos. Then after that kill NAFTA. Soon enough the property market will crash and many will go hungry. Cardboard

First step to a pipeline to Edmonton, then onto tidewater. Cardboard

When everything seems lost that is when things turns. Who mentioned about this holding recently? I think we mostly had all written it off when we heard about these accounting issues. I also recall a $100 million valuation for the land alone held by Blue Goose. And Biogen did hit some good success with an Alzheimer drug recently thought to be ineffective. Is TauRX truly worthless? And there is oil in Chad. How much really in that play to be economic is more the question. I am impressed by how fast Delonex is going after it and how much the oil market has improved from only a year ago. Back then $50 oil was the number, there was uncertainty about concluding the sale and this payment on first oil and royalty looked like a pipe dream 4 or 5 years down the road. You just start to add a few wins to this portfolio of 70+ holdings and all of a sudden latest prices for the stock and preferreds look absolutely crazy. Cardboard

"The AV disruption worry is super-silly with the multiples autos are trading at today. Not even the most wild bulls, who are still informed, think that mass-market AVs are imminent. It's emblematic of today's market environment that this is consistently front and center in people's minds even on a value forum. The potential AV R&D sinkhole would worry me much, much more and would be more in line with how the auto manufacturers have historically burned profits. But blue-eyed tech optimism is the name of the game at the moment and people love to discuss sci-fi scenarios more than anything." +100 Alwaysinvert! It is as bad as it was in 1998-2000. Back then, I could buy companies like Sigma-Aldrich and Autozone that were buying back 20% of their shares and trading very cheaply because people envisioned them disappear with the Internet. Then made a few baggers on each. Interestingly, 20 years later, they are still there... Cardboard

It is interesting that the "E"'s only finally woke up to the danger ahead over the last 4 or 5 trading sessions. What were they thinking about? Looking at the shit show at Aimia, where dividends have been suspended for a while (still cummulate), it just shows the potential with the Dundee "B" and "D" preferreds with any improvement at the company. These are in a way, with no conversion into stock possible, much safer than the "E"'s on some stampede liquidation. Dividends have still been declared for September and with the number of assets held, no debt, why not continue? And even if they are cut (they accumulate unless I am mistaken), we have Aimia to look as an example of how bad it can get. For the Aimia "B"'s, I see for example $7.32 as the low but, it did not stay there long. Cardboard

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/17/news/companies/trump-drop-quarterly-reports/index.html There is only a handful of CEO's that I trust including Dimon and Buffett. However, even these guys won't be at the helm forever. Many companies, especially the small ones, barely communicate anything of value in between quarterly reports. Going now for 6 months? Nuts IMO and just another opportunity for more insider trading on undisclosed information. While I do not hold companies accountable to hit certain numbers at each quarter, looking at their results, outlook, risk that emerge, etc. is certainly an opportunity for me to adjust my thesis. And I do feel that managers need to be at least held accountable to show progress and do what they said they would do. Every 6 months is way too much leash for people that earn in the vast majority of cases outrageous salaries. They should at least face that level of scrutiny from investors. Now, if they were able to find a way to ban algos and funds who automatically dump on 1 penny EPS miss I would be all for it but, reducing reporting. Not for me! Cardboard

My view is that most of you discount too much the probabilities of refinancing of the "E"s. Hence if you want to do that, you don't stop paying dividends on your existing debt (preferreds). And as one mentioned, if you are looking to do business with other people in the resource sector, you don't do that either. Here is a fact: "In accordance with the terms of the Corporation’s Preference Shares, series 5, holders thereof had the option to redeem up to 17% of their holdings on January 31, 2018 at a price of $25.00 per share. During the first quarter of 2018, the Corporation paid cash of $7,582,000 to redeem 303,265 Preference Shares, series 5 pursuant to these arrangements." Guess how many redeemed their shares? 8.4% vs 17% max. Why? Something similar happened when these were issued to redeem Series 4 if I recall properly. Most of the unhappy got their cash and the rest carried on with better terms. It happens all the time with convertible reaching maturity and when the company cannot easily repay. They get extended for better terms and sometimes a chunk is redeemed. Cardboard

I agree, it is all about pricing in the next 3 recessions! Take a look at what happened to copper stocks, oil stocks and all kinds of commodities yesterday. Of course, these also get affected by the strong USD. Actually, maybe that the latter could also be added to the reasons to be worried about U.S. based auto stocks or a strong currency which hurts overseas sales/profits once translated. Cardboard

Man, you guys are coming up with all kinds of scary theories. Sounds quite desperate to me. I see this kind of talk on Stockhouse when a stock has been beaten up like these but, I don't recall this on CoBF... Sure, they can screw investors but, what happens after? They end up pretty much locked out of the equity/debt market. I would like to remind everyone that their public holdings alone are about enough to redeem all preferreds at par! Cardboard

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