DRValue

He said "Sometime", that was it. it could literally be anytime or never happen at all. I'm so sick of this.

So weird to me how Common holders live rent free in pref holders heads on FinTwit

With one party threatening to punch the other in the face, it'd be hard to argue they're self-dealing in that negotiation. Optics

House charts GSE rework for early 2026 Q1 '26

Are there any examples of a 100% income sweep having taken place in the past? I don't think so... main reason I'm expecting seniors to be deemed repaid.

With FNMA updating to a more traditional investor presentation and FMCC not, I see this aligning with a FNMA doing an offering before FMCC. Strikingly similar to the Ackman plan.

To my knowledge, no one of any political consequence has drawn attention to this: So with Pulte doing so, I can't think of any justification other than to use it as justification for considering the SPSPA paid.

Is anyone else picking up that letting them go public 'without letting them go' or 'while staying in conservatorship' is just the consent decree?

Of course, and in any case, if this is announced formally before rates are lowered then when they are, the vested interests saying mortgage rates will rise won't have a leg to stand on when they have already fallen 1-2%.

Thoughts on whether this would still be valid? Treasury-Housing-Finance-Reform-Plan.pdf Key points: Eliminating all or a portion of the liquidation preference of Treasury’s senior preferred shares or exchanging all or a portion of that interest for common stock or other interests in the GSE; Issuing shares of common or preferred stock, and perhaps also convertible debt or other loss-absorbing instruments, through private or public offerings, perhaps in connection with the exercise of Treasury’s warrants for 79.9% of the GSE’s common stock; Congress should authorize an explicit, paid-for guarantee by Ginnie Mae of qualifying MBS that are collateralized by eligible conventional mortgage loans. I don't agree a Govt guarantee is necessary but Treasury wanted it and maybe those media articles and institutions advocating for it not only want it for the benefit of their members but are doing so to add weight to the Treasury recommendation. I do not know if the guarantee by Ginnie Mae adds the liability to the Govt balance sheet which is one of the main criticisms of providing a guarantee. Interesting to read elimination of the LP is being contemplated.

Decided to up my common exposure after Ackman's comments, nice 25% gain the next day.

What does he gain from this? valuation at year end?

I have a bunch of different prefs but mainly fnmas, fnmaj, fmckj. The less liquid fnmaj always traded at a pretty steep discount to fnmas due to liquidity and offered a big coupon with more upside

Craig Phillips was aware of it and agreed with it under Mnuchin in Treasury. IIRC Ackman's thesis is that the commons increase when conservatorship ending is announced, which means less dilution, which means a higher share price, which means less dilution, which means a higher share price...

Yes, you're right but they're never going to pay it back so the only way to get rid of it to raise capital is to convert or re-term, so to me essentially it is capital due to the anticipated end state. Mnuchin agreed to allow each co. to raise $70b through SPO to pay off the liquidation pref I believe, I cannot see how anyone would ever provide any capital to give it straight to the government. This whole thing comes down to what's more practical and to me, conversion of SPSA seems unnecessary and overly punitive but it doesn't mean others see it that way. I also cannot shake Bill Ackman being in the commons. I certainly see prefs as the safer option that they are but I just wonder how he could be that wrong, compared to someone like me....