Cardboard

Do you fit the mold regarding being part of that corrupt system?

WFC should definitely be on top decile of most attractive list.

"First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps." +1 Their narrative is simply crazy. Just imagine if Trump wins another term... Are some going to hang themselves over true despair or they will just keep whining, yelling and screaming as they have been over the last 4 years? Some talk about trust, institutions and approval process. If there is something I trust the least is unaccountable people, getting paid no matter what. Just like that so useful WHO who declared it a pandemic after lockdown was in force! And these are the ones who we should put our trust in for our lives? I have a ton more trust for 20-30 large and respectable pharmaceutical companies all competing to deliver best product to consumers and who could get sued to the point of extinction if they screw up. Cardboard

This is all about duration and depth of this panic. If you can judge this you are a lot better than I am but, that is really the key to determine if it is a garden variety correction or something much worst that contaminates loan process and generates another financial crisis. A smarter man than I am who has 40+ years in the market said to never, ever buy anything (long) after an extended up market stretch. He was right once again.

Belgian Moon. Then I drink about every decent bourbon with Coke and gin with tonic and lime.

Copper is still at $2.56/pound. If there is one good economic indicator that is. Some personal experience, China activity is returned to 80% in my field. There has been some delays in shipment and manufacturing but, it is much less than initially feared. Call it two weeks behind schedule on 2-4 months lead items. These guys are disciplined and obey which will be a problem elsewhere but, I agree with Buffet: this looks like a buying opportunity. Of course there are these crazy stocks like Tesla and other momo garbage that has been peddled by many here which need to come down significantly in price. My view is that this could be the catalyst for a shift or more at home development by China, India and many developing countries and less reliance on global trade. Emerging markets have been weak for a very long time and we could see some green shoots.

Like I mentioned in a different thread, this would be the perfect weapon for Russia to get rid of pain in the ass Trump and replace with a so much more profitable candidate such as Bernie.

Just listened to Mr. Trump's press conference and this is totally under control: 15 people for God sake in the whole USA!!! Then how long to get a vaccine in this day and age? I have read that test on humans begin in 6 weeks and I would think that the Chinese will start right now if any of this above is even remotely true.

Back into MSGN

You are totally correct Gregmal. As usual... You can make great money with these things in places like Florida where snowbirds like to spend the winter without having to pay for a full size home. Money is often asked upfront and rent runs quite high vs size/cost of property. Often they pay for 12 months while they only stay for max 6 as they have to return or like in Canada in order not to lose their health insurance.

When the last potential buyer has bought, this is it: price heads down. There is really no need for a catalyst. Then hysteria turns into fear. This feels so similar to 20 years ago it is almost scary. Main difference in my opinion is that the Fed is not tightening. This could soon change. I think that one should not think too much in terms of fundamentals as market participants don`t care. Look at some of the big movers in market cap and then wonder how they really added that much in intrinsic value or net worth over the last 2 days to deserve such pop? It is purely fear of missing out and greed.

"Care to PM me your thoughts on this?" Ever read my book: "Cardboard on Cardboard"? Typical seasonal high is about to come or when people get their tax bill. Market has been marching straight up since early October. China economy is shut down for at least 1 week after end of 2 week holidays and it could last longer. Revenues are anemic (another thread on that) and everything has been about climbing valuation. Democrats are being ignored and one of the crazies has a good chance to win nomination. TLT is flashing red. GLD is flashing red. Oil is flashing red. Copper is flashing red. A year or so ago they were scared shitless about a potential slowdown due to trade war. Now we have 20% of world GDP effectively shutdown and the market is not worried about forward earnings? I could be very wrong on this. Although your post encourages me as shorts have given up.

"The key here is that there is a $20-22 spread between WCS/WTI." My view is that if you are betting on that to last forever you are mislead. However, I can identify a potential buyer for this asset who has delevered and mentioned in the past that they would be inclined to buy more refining assets as an hedge: Cenovus.

Key economically is that everything is paralyzed right now. If you work with them, as I do, you have no idea when workers will return to work and what they will be capable of doing (only work from home?). Some that have left to visit family at the begining of Chinese New Year Holiday may not be allowed to return for a while. If you have any kind of supply chain linked with China you have zero idea when things may resume, at what rate and then eventually return to normal? Most are hoping that it will only be next week that will be a write-off which is already quite a bit but, it may get much worst.

Bought more SPY puts. After 2 days following my initial trade I am pretty convinced that the game is over ala 2000 in 2020.

SPY puts June

Just take a large paper enveloppe. Fill it with mustard. Slide it just under their door and drop a dictionary or large book on it. Then hide.

RuleNumberOne was spot on with almost perfect timing when he rang the alarm on negative government bonds. Since then a few trillions of these bonds have lost big time in value. I would not be surprised to see him right again here.

A guy I know once responded to another fellow who was saying: "This guy is really cheap, he must have a lot of money" "To have money, you must make some first." So the best car for a value investor would be a really rare vehicle that will appreciate in value. Cardboard

Thinking of a lucky 7? LOL!

Lost all respect. The guy is all about rear view mirror. Looks awfully old for 66. Is bitter. If you don`t compete anymore then wtf are you doing giving interviews on Bloomberg about stock market, currencies and bond predictions?

I think that Buffett best strategy going forward due to size and lack of large mom and pop shop running to him to get bought out, would be to dollar cost average monthly incoming cash flow and a fraction of cash pile into an S&P 500 ETF and do opportunistic share buybacks. This would pretty much eliminate any succession risk and help BRK continue to beat the S&P via embedded leverage or float.

The lawyers will always tell you to protect yourself to the nth degree and run you a huge bill in the process. This entire thing is claimed to prevent investment fraud and it does but, I guarantee you that the largest outcome is to protect so called portfolio managers and their 6 figure salaries. I would setup a corporation or a general or a limited partnership between the two of you with a good contract. If there is no complaint you will never hear from regulatory people. Think about it. How many people do that for real estate or other business where there is a money contributor and a manager being compensated for his or her work? It is all about the relationship between the two of you or what happens if things go wrong investment wise, various disrupting life events, etc. and please don't underestimate that possibility. Cardboard

Well... Buffett said that it would not participate in auctions, sounds to me like he did here. Apollo offered $130/share and he outbid them with $140. Apollo likely thought: "shit, we already spent a ton of money on due diligence, financing, etc. so might as well pay $15 more and get it over with". Not sure if it will be a good deal for Apollo or not but, Buffett certainly look like the annoying bidder at an auction who is just mildly interested and is simply there to make people pay more. And as Gregmal said, if he is not interested in paying more then he will be stuck with a big pile of cash. He is the one who said after all that stocks should trade much higher if interest rates are to stay low. Gets back to good corporate governance or why sitting on $10's of billions in cash that are unneccessary for investment purposes (can't get good returns in his book since unwilling to pay such price) or corporate strength? At current size, Berkshire should definitely shift focus to return capital to shareholders vs timing the market. Cardboard

Were you less happy spending $8,000/year?