valuesource

I see what you are saying about IB. FFH.U does not come up in the search. I generally agree with @SafetyinNumbers that FRFHF is the favoured approach to buying in USDs. With IB the F/X rates are low enough to entertain buying on TMX (where most of the volume is). There is, quite obviously, lots of arbitrage or at least electronic trading on TMX. 053 - Morgan Stanley, 039 - Merrill Lynch and 079 - CIBC are making it annoying to try to bid or offer any stock. But you have to try to transact on TMX because it is the best market. Another thing I've noticed is the action in the Market-on-close facility has been high for a while. At times we've seen 100k shares trade MOC in a day. MOC promotes liquidity at the end of day and allows Buy/Sell orders to be entered throughout the day with a published imbalance at 3:50pm. Between 3:50 and 4:00pm offsetting orders are solicited and a price is determined according to supply/demand. It's not moving the market much ($1-3 based on the size of the imbalance) but the volumes are material.

Short interest on TMX actually increased slightly. I'd also like to hear @sleepydragon's take.

I think it depends where you look for estimates. Reuters had a mean estimate of $52.15.

Newswire services have a way of really cutting to the bone...

Done. Sorry, everyone seemed to be chomping at the bit to see the numbers and sometimes it takes 15 mins for Fairfax to put it up.

Possibly poorly worded by design. I have a small account at IB but it only has 2 positions in it. One is FIH.U. I wouldn't get get a notification because I don't borrow money against my stock positions currently. I like their margin lending rates but I don't like this behaviour. Unfortunately, brokers have a sordid past of changing the rules and it's always at the worst times.

I get the Short Interest spreadsheet from TMX but it's only every 15 days. Below is what it looks like for Jan 31/24. It is a subscription service. I was unaware that it was possible to get it daily or hourly. Going back to mid 2022, there seems to be a consistent short interest of 120,000-160,000 on FFH-T. 20,000-40,000 on FFH.U-T. Without considering @sleepydragon's input, I might have concluded that someone has had a short position in FFH for a while now. I'm not so obtuse to think I could be wrong about the short interest being published more frequently. If @sleepydragon could point me in the right direction, I would be grateful.

In the case of dividends in excess of $1mm my broker dealer will charge 5bps on the exchange (0.0005). In the case of small dividends (lets say $100) most brokers will go 1.0-1.2%. You should receive a discount on larger size. My dealer will consider everyone who owns stock on their books. It bears mentioning that I do not deal with a bank. Mine is Research Capital, 199 Bay St in Toronto.

I noticed the footnote and Brit is en fuego

Byron Wein, formerly of Morgan Stanley, passed away at age 90. I remember him supporting the Short Thesis propagated by SAC Capital, Exis, Morgan Keegan, etc... I don't blame him. Those guys would have been good clients. Some of us got some good opportunities below $100 CAD. And the Jan 2008 $140 strike Calls went from $2.00 to over $160. Stock was $92 USD back then with about 1.5 years to expiry.

Price target change from CIBC, $1,400 —> $1,500

I miss BSillyO

I’m struggling to understand Morningstar’s motivation. This isn’t Sell Side research, where they would look to capture investment banking business. We could use that to explain the bullish bias by NBF, Cormark, CIBC and BMO. I’d have to guess Morningstar is being compensated directly by some entities rather than by a soft dollar arrangement.

I think they're a long way from backing off on repurchases.

Sometimes Analysts are little more than shills for Hedge Funds. Remember John Gwynn from Morgan Keegan (an unknown Dealer based in Memphis)? In my estimation, most Short Reports/Bear Raids include a bearish Analyst and some Hedge Funds. Usually, the Hedgies are already short before the report is published. I'm sure the analysts get paid in hard or soft dollars first. Then they cover quickly. In a finite number of cases, I think the Analyst may produce a report as a litmus test, prior to putting on the short. This tends to happen in cases like today for FFH. It has risen steeply over the past 2 years. Unfortunately, bear raids don't usually work themselves out quickly. We suffered through a successful bear raid from 2003-2006 which resolved in 2008 with the CDS exposure. I recall talking to Bradstreet about it. They had some diversified exposure to: Monoline Bond Insurers (Radian, MGIC), Lehman, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. Obviously some of these didn't work out but all had potential. AIG CDS protection cost 30bps in 2007 and ballooned to 3,600bps before they were rescued. Lehman was 55bps and a static bankruptcy took it to 10,000bps. Same with Radian and MGIC. Fannie and Freddie did not work out. Still FFH made a profit on CDS close to their 3B cap at the time. Fairfax claims victory after broker fires analyst - The Globe and Mail