SharperDingaan

'ICE nodding to far-right extremists in recruitment posts, experts say'. https://www.cbc.ca/news/ice-recruiting-9.7058294 Click on the video; 0.13-0.16 lays out the recruitment carrots. 1) Up to 50K sign-on bonus, 2) Student loans forgiven, 3) generous benefits (high bi-weekly pay as well as benefits). More agents in total than there are US marines ... and all 'in-country' whereas US marines are increasingly being tied down 'out-of-country'; in Venezuela, Columbia? , Cuba?, Iran?, etc., etc. Very similar terms to the hiring of mercenaries to execute regime change in a third world nation; the sign-off bonus is whatever you can take with you in the impending chaos. So friends in low places tell me . Most would think it highly unlikely that deportations are done, and ICE has been disbanded by the mid-term elections. Last time Orange Boy lost, his supporters tried to take the Whitehouse by force ... but there weren't enough of them. Not going to be a problem this time around? Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and cover via the long straddle. SD

The Nazi's used the brown shirts; the current administration uses ICE for the same purpose. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturmabteilung Its primary purposes were providing protection for Nazi rallies and assemblies, disrupting the meetings of opposing parties, fighting against the paramilitary units of the opposing parties, especially the Roter Frontkämpferbund of the Communist Party of Germany (KPD) and the Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), and intimidating Romani, trade unionists, and especially Jews. Same as with Germany, it was tolerated as it meant employment when there otherwise wasn't any. A lot of the MAGA base would be out of work were there no ICE, deportations, over hiring in the varying security apparatus, and southern border patrolling. Similarly bought votes. It is to the US electorate to resolve it, they voted for it, they wear the domestic consequences. All that others can expect is increasing reliance upon mitigation, and higher volatility as we come to the mid-terms. Increasingly sell the US, buy anything but US, and park in anything but US, come back when mid terms results are known. Lots of opportunities for the nimble ..... SD

It would seem that Orange Boy is doing whatever he can at the moment to keep the attention off Iran .... The US fleet is now there, the Israelis are pushing for an attack, Iran has moved up on Orange Boys hit list and Iran is warning that it will hit back hard if attacked, lots of US heavy lift planes left the US late last week, regime change is clearly on the menu, and the former Shah's son is the replacement in waiting. Oil prices moved up significantly on Friday, in anticipation. The 100% CAD tariff threat is just noise, to keep Iran off the news cycle; so .... when the public expects you to react with a hissy fit ... give them one. Iran goes Trumps way, nobody is going to be talking about this. Same thing, if it goes wrong, and turns into a giant cluster f***. Any kind of seizure of Canada triggers WW III, as the rest of NATO is obliged to come to Canada's defence; no different to trying to seize Greenland. Same thing applies to attempts to break up Canada via the intentional creation of social unrest to trigger succession referendums. The only time NATO's Article 5 (Collective Defence) has ever been invoked, was over 9/11 .... not quite the propaganda being spun SD

Trump assassination after he loses the senate. Underweight the US to buy back on the day of the announcement. Every mafia boss knows its a time limited engagement, and that the end comes suddenly. Just saying ... SD

Looks pretty ... but a really shitty gas tank! Can't even make it from Vancouver to Winnipeg without a fill up ... and that's with no loitering. Toronto to Heathrow requires at least two air-to-air refuelling's https://www.distancecalculator.net/from-vancouver-to-winnipeg https://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance/yyz-to-lhr/ SD

Growth rate, FCF yield, and predictability are just guesstimates. Historic growth and FCF yield assumed to continue, prediction % assumed to be accurate. Better than nothing, but only in an extended and unchanging environment. A lot simpler, is to simply justify why, whether 2 quarters out, the price of XYZ coy is likely to be higher than it is now. Buy if the answer is higher, sell if it is lower; shrink the period to 1 quarter when higher volatility or seasonality is present. Always biased to up-drafts, avoidance of reasonably forseeable losses, lots of ways by which to execute. Record today's justifications, review them at both 2 and 4 quarters out, ongoing findings inform future prediction. All of a sudden, social media starts to work for and not against you, and the swing trade opportunities become obvious SD

Not toy drones. Big drones that can stop and be totally passive while drifting with the current under the ice for weeks at a time, or settle on the floor of the sea bed for weeks at a time. Essentially loitoring undersea drones, reprogamable at sea, that can call up something else if required. Lots of possibilities. SD

Submarine doesn't necessarily mean a crewed boat; other nations have far more advanced/better boats than a Canada might obtain. Whereas 'drone subs' are a lot cheaper, offer a whole different level of possibility/security, and can both leverage off the Ukrainian navy experiences, and benefit from the largest Ukrainian diaspora in the world. SD

It is pretty clear that the two big Davos speeches this year (Canada, US) were coordinated. Both speakers from fortress North America, each got out of the way for the other .. so that the messages would be delivered loud and clear. The US message was that Europe is not deemed reliable, needs to get its act together, and that the US is done waiting. It is pretty clear that Greenland was largely because the US wasn't comfortable with the reliability of NATO's ability to defend it, and wasn't prepared to rest part of the golden dome on such a poor assurance; so they have chosen to more reliably defend it themselves. The CAD message was that middle powers (most of Europe) need to get their act together, or get eaten. Less consult, more action, plan for the world of tomorrow ... not the world that used to be. Accept change as a good thing, come up with a collective cohesive industrial policy for the now larger trade block, and implement. Tariffs used to inflict pain, until change is either implemented, or the powers get eaten. Assistance is available, but it isn't going to be more of the same. Break heads behind the barn for as long as it takes, come back ready to move forward on the world of tomorrow. SD

Carney actually plays goalie .. so stopping slap-shots is no big deal. It's the other guys forwards who have to watch out for the goalies coordinated hits, elbows, and high/low sticks . SD

Agreed, Donny used to be good for 2,000 points/day ... 800 is pretty anaemic Then, maybe it's just the start .... Donny imposes tariffs, Europe and friends impose higher interest rates by temporarily withdrawing from US debt overall (fed, municipal, corporate, etc.). Doesn't go well for the economy, employment, upcoming elections, or the market. Maybe a drop of 12,000 points in total ? .... 'cause debt is such a bitch, and Donny is rapidly running out of time Of course .... should an enterprising lad/treasurer also hold puts on the more vulnerable tickers in the US index ... double-dipping becomes a possibility .... to offset higher costs elsewhere. Cost neutral to move out of USD debt. As the Queen lyrics go ... https://genius.com/Queen-the-show-must-go-on-lyrics https://ca.video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&p=queen+the+show+must+go+on&type=E210CA1494G0#id=1&vid=8d1de379947a4150e772f6047bd86cad&action=click SD

Like it or not the world is being 'redistributed'. Doesn't necessarily mean new territories in new orbits, but it does mean go-forward widespread fundamental change in how things are done. Everybody benefits from extended stability; but the reality is that we are already 25 yrs into this century, it is no longer last century, and modern day updates are not a bad thing. The world is not a stable place; the norm is ongoing wars, peace is the anomaly. Even Europe wars every 70 years or so; Serbia, Ukraine, etc. are just more recent examples. Rules, institutions, etc, extend the length of the peace periods; they don't guarantee them. You need friends, periodic bench clearings, and blunt discussions behind the barn. Bullying is part of life. There's always someone bigger than you .... friends group together, hire an enforcer to beat the sh1te out of the bully, let the bruises become tender, then beat the sh1te out of the bully again ... targeting the now vulnerable ribs, teeth, kidneys, and windpipe. Same game, changed rules Target the money; US debt, gold reserves, interest rates, trade settlement currency use, etc. Damage the flow of money (debt rollovers, higher interest, market collapse) as you would a bully's windpipe .... make it hard to breathe, jam a straw in to assist breathing, and periodically put a thumb on it. Debtors operate at the pleasure of their creditors, and the creditors willingness to recognise a loss; helpful to be trading the US market down while you're squeezing for gains bigger than the triggered write-down Families fight, jaws/arms occasionally get broke, ego's get bruised ... but there's blunt discussion, and ultimately everyone limps away with the same understanding, whether they want to hear it or not. Respect refreshed the hard way, and repeat discussion with the slow and/or hard of learning. There is a reason why bench clearings work so well. No respect if you don't fight back, fight to win, and fight to do your own thing. No matter how big you are, nobody wants to have to fight a pissed off wolverine .... not if you hope to have kids one day, and not breathe through a straw SD

It is pretty clear that "strategic relationship" means Chinese investment in Canadian infrastructure. Build a Chinese auto plant in Canada, and you can manufacture/sell 50,000 units in Canada and export the remainder as NA content. Sure, Orange Boy doesn't want the cheap BYD cars, but lots of others do .... and Tesla's which are also Chinese made, can now go into the US tariff free Build a mine or develop an oil reservoir in Canada, and invest in the infrastructure to get it to tidewater, and you will be allowed to export it home as a domestic producer. Whether that be o/g from the west going out the via the Pacific coast, o/g from the east going out via the Atlantic coast, or o/g from the North going out via the NW passage All of which creates employment in Canada, requires zero US involvement .... and is safe, reliable, and well trod. SD

To Orange Boy the northern routes are just an extension of the US Pacific Lake. As with the Panama Canal, US control at both ends of the shipping route; the US already controls the Bering Strait (adjacent to Alaska) entrance, so control is sought over the southern entrance next to Greenland. NATO/Europe responsible for the other entrance. Control the entrances and you also control the major trade route between Asia and Europe. SD

And as soon as he's a lame duck president ... with his thin skin, he'll be instantly renamed Donald Duck. Or 'Duck a la Orange' to the Europeans ... who also like to eat well SD

Notice what is NOT in the news? Silence over the failure to strike on Iran. It hasn't happened for the last two weekends, despite all kinds of ordinance and Russian/Chinese defence equipment surged in place, and promises to Iranians that the US would support them. The opportunity has now passed, the regime remains in place, sanctioned oil continues to flow, as does the funding of sponsored terrorism. Silence over the falure in Venezuela. The escaped tankers have now been caught, the heavy oil cargo's 'redistributed', .... but don't look too close .... 'cause their ain't no NEW supply No new condensate flowing in to thin down the limited production, infrastructure too far gone to support any sustained near term increase, interim Russian/Chinese crews managing operations, US companies not going in until more changes are made. Hey bud ... same people are in place .... and where's my heavy! Silence over Epstein. Keep it off the news cycle to minimise the impact on the mid-term. All those women, negatively influencing all those men, negatively influencing senate control. All those small business owners, who can't get enough cheap labour anymore to run their operations ... Silence over Orange Boys future. Zero discussion as to what if Orange Boy looses the mid-terms ... and turns into Donald Duck ... quack, quack Couldn't carry the senate ..... Orange Boy is melting quickly, and tap dancing in a box. Same as a trapped short .... squeeze the orange to get at the juice, close the oven door for duck a la orange SD

Treasuries are just the cheapest instrument to hold, not the only one; hedged bullion, oil, copper, BTC, etc., are also good choices - just more expensive to use. All that the major T-Bill holders need do, is repeatedly and systematically reduce their debt roll-overs at the auctions, and force the fed to step in. Stress the fed enough in keeping rates down, will threaten reserve currency status, and drive trade to denominate in Euro, Yuan, and BRIC. USD drops like a brick SD

Cyclical down is just the trough portion of the commodity cycle; could be entering or exiting the trough, or at the bottom of it. Structural down is the run off portion of the investment cycle; very limited new capital investment while existing capital assets are run through to end of life. SD

A big part of this is Europe's inability to get its act together. Call the bluff, shit on the other guys carpet, intentionally start a fight, and piss off the opponent enough to finally act. Long time coming, and not a bad thing; the US is actually doing Europe a favour. The more viscous the response the better; clear the bench and say your apologies later. One can always dial it back ... after the knives are blunt! The world is changing, and Europe either moves with it or gets left behind. Extend and pretend is no longer a viable option. SD

Re Greenland, Orange Boy is intentionally winding Europe up, setting the game, and doing very well at it. So ... change the game, get in his face, and wind him up. He can't afford retaliatory tariffs; he loses the midterms, he's gone .. so call the bluff .... and give him a shove. Engage the bazooka, deploy forces to Greenland on training exercises, use Trumps language and slap immediate additional tariffs on US goods/services to pay for that Greenland defence . Intentionally reduce US bond holdings, physically pull bullion out of the US, suck the oxygen out of the room. Unemployment and recession just in time for the midterms ... Hard ass actions behind the barn, the more ruthless the better. Ultimately, Greenlander's will decide what's best for them; however there's nothing wrong with greatly increasing the negative carry on the deal, should Greenlanders choose to become another US territory or state . Leaders come and go, but ya gotta stand up for yourself. There are lots of shrinks and docs/dentists around to mend bruised egos and repair broken bones and teeth. SD

I like! but she is one butt ugly drama queen ... https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=butt-ugly The reality is that change is coming to Europe, and it probably isn't going to go well for many. This is the time to get in those exotic trips across Europe whilst you still can, and quietly emigrate wealth/family before a sudden depreciation and capital controls make it more difficult. Bridgeheads, that hopefully you will never have need of; but also a time for the young to reach for the brass ring, as decades of change will happen very quickly. SD

To be frank, the EU should have deployed this a long time ago; get it done, and have the tool ready to go. If it triggers a fight, so be it; think of it as 'healthy discussion'. In hockey, there is nothing like a good old fashioned bench clearing to get the team riled up, fighting as one unit, and working out frustrations on the opposition . And when near everyone gets a 5 minute penalty for fighting, at the same time, there isn't much to lose .... aside from a few teeth, that a dentist can fix SD

Great for Greenlander's so long as Denmark doesn't overtly interfere. In Orange Boys eyes it's just a real estate deal with negative carry, that Denmark should be happy to get rid of. That ongoing USD 600 million simply becomes the US contribution to arctic defence (in weapons), that the 8 NATO members need to collectively put up every year ... or better. USD 1.2 billion+ spent on Greenland every year ... Hardly surprising that NATO doesn't appreciate the squeeze. SD

It's also only a matter of time until NATO has to put up ongoing adequate manpower, via some kind of systematic national draft for a minimum period of time; each NATO nation contributing X people, as they see fit, according to the size of their population. The men and women in support that keep the background ops going, and from which the front line operations can draw for recruitment. Part of the draft served at home, part served abroad, and a contribution to further education at a domestic university/college at the end of the draft; as most nations already do in some fashion. Domestic service might include fire fighting, medical, and rescue; after the draft - more mature students going to school and getting more out of it. Strengthened national identity by sharing the load across the nation, across more sections of society, and across multiple generations; versus just relying on the same few ... continuously putting up. Not likely to be popular amongst NATO's various politicians, so expect a lot more shitting on the carpet Last time there was something similar was WWII, and the benefits lasted generations; fortunately, another world war isn't required, if it is to be done again. Money, men/women, and equipment. SD

Trump already tried, by floating the '51st State' thing. Of course; to be negotiated, and not as a single state ... bigger, and hence with more 'say', than every other state in the US! Notable was that there was no offer for Mexico; and as with Greenland, he was politely reminded to eff off . Quite a bit more difficult with Canada, as the two economies are functionally very integrated, and citizenry vote with their pocketbooks. Boycotts on US products, travel/rail/port traffic through anywhere but the US, direct trade and manufacture with Asia, etc, etc are hurting. It's also a lot smarter for both, to let Canada remain independent, contribute to the cost of the dome, and strengthen the Canadian economy by reducing reliance on the US. Northern defence is as much a direct threat to Canada as it is to the US; hence NORAD cooperation. Much less the case with Europe, with more interest in defending against attack from the east (and badly), versus an attack from the North ... and where the intent seems to be primarily one of slowing down the advance, should the aggressor choose to call the bluff. Not great if you're a Scandinavian nation, or you are reliant upon Scandinavian forces to hold their side of the dome up; hence the 'we gotta have Greenland'. There will be a lot of shitting on the carpet to get it done, but it will occur. You want defence you gotta put up the equipment, troops, money, and reliability. SD