Dinar

I think that he is correct. Also, keep in mind that until 1954 Crimea was part of Russia, and Khruschev gifted Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 to celebrate 400 year anniversary of the union between Russia and Ukraine

Japan in 1990 was very different from the US today in a number of respects. One very important one - the market for corporate control and lack of discipline of the takeover market. You have a number of companies - SK Kaken a good example where the returns have been terrible for a decade or two because the company has just sat on cash and stockpiled it rather than return it to shareholders.

I own Spirax Sarco Engineering, Ashtead Plc. Porvair, Diageo, Relx, Experian and Cranswick are all in the on-deck circle. If they either come in 5-15%, or I get cash I will buy them, ceteris paribus.

May be he is not looking hard enough? I have found plenty of opportunities in UK, including world class businesses.

If I am not mistaken Safran is 8x EPS with net cash on 2025 numbers

Have you looked at how GE compares to Siemens Healthineers and Safran? I think both are much cheaper.

I cannot imagine how they are correct. Here is why: a) H1 2022 EPS = E 15, and H2 is typically the more profitable half, so call it E 31 2022 EPS? b) Euro is roughly down 10%+ since H1 average 2022 and the company had hedges on top of that, so once hedges roll off, I would expect roughly 15%-20% impact on EPS, so at 1 E = 0.96, 2022 EPS run-rate assuming no hedges would be closer to 35-37. c) La Samaritaine, Belmond and travel retail have barely contributed. The first two are 3bn+ euro assets that should generate another 0.5-1 E in annual EPS. Travel retail is not back to full strength, so that combined should contribute another 1-1.5 E in EPS. d) Tiffany's profitability is going up very fast. I remember when Arnault announced the acquisition, he said that he expected the business to increase profitability the same way that Bulgari did post acquisition (5x increase.) That means increase in E 4bn in EBIT and 3bn in after-tax net income or E 6 per share. Now I expect that to take time, but several times since acquisition, executives commented that Tiffany's is doing better than projections. My channel checks also confirmed that profitability can be increased sharply. So call it E 3 from Tiffany's? e) Impact of buy-backs - company should be able to reduce s/o by 1% = 0.3 f) Chinese demand was impacted heavily by Covid-19 lockdowns - impact? Total: E 31 + 6 (currency) + 1.25 E (Belmond+Samaritaine+travel retail) + 3 E (Tiffany) + 0.3 from buy-backs = E 41.5. However, this is 2022. You may have some additional pricing benefit in 2023 vs 2022, + recovery of Chinese demand from Covid-19 shocks so I do not see how 31 Euro EPS is the right estimate for 2023, unless the world economies completely implode.

How do you figure? KO is at more than 22x EPS, while LVMH is probably closer to 13, KO has debt while LVMH will have zero net debt by 12/31/2022.

Yes and no. While in nominal terms S&P is 10% higher than on Jan 1st 2020, adjusting for inflation it is down around 15% since then.

Why are checks to Ukraine a good idea? The biggest threat to the USA is China, Pakistan - a nuclear state with crazies, not the crumbling Russian Empire that now realizes that it is a paper tiger.

Spek, do the work on Spirax Sarco Engineering, I think that you will be very impressed with the business.

I remember 35-40 years ago that most trains in the former USSR were electrified, with the electric cables strung above tracks. So I presume it can be done if it becomes cost effective.

Thank you gentlemen

SD - Estonia is essentially German, or was. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were always a breed apart in the USSR. These were German provinces that became part of Russian empire for 170-190 years, and then independent again in 1917. Finland is the same story (except it avoided the Soviet yoke from 1938-1990). If I were to invest in Ukraine, I would consider it charity and assume that the money would be gone. It is the same approach when I lend to people - I assume that I will never see the money again. (I lent money twice in my life, in both case I did not expect to be repaid when I was asked for a loan, and both times was pleasantly surprised.)

With all due respect, I disagree in one very important aspect. Germany was and is a fundamentally honest society that abhorred corruption. Ukraine (and the rest of the former USSR and Russian empire before) has had a culture of corruption for centuries.

I own CP & CN. CN had the best network in NA before CP bought KSU. I am very bullish for the reasons Viking mentioned & I found the interview with Mandelblatt to be very interesting. I think Mexico and US manufacturing will be major beneficiaries of re-shoring, and CP & CNI will benefit. I also think that CP lowballed the synergies associated with KSU acquisitions and I think that technology and automous trains will help drastically cut costs.

Greg, if you do not mind, could you please share how you are long food/resources. I have not been able to find good agricultural plays for instance. Thank you.

How do you know? Seriously, you compare Hitler and Putin? How many people Putin killed? Tens of thousands? Hitler - 100 million. Do I like President Putin? Hell no, and I had the same opinion nearly 25 years ago when he gained power, I thought that no normal/honourable person joins KGB voluntarily. But to compare him to Hitler? Again, I do not know what Putin truly wants and I do not know whether the Putin or the West tried to negotiate. But to claim that Putin refuses to negotiate is absurd, have you talked to him and did he tell you that himself?

I agree, the top priority for the West should be to find a way for Putin to save face and end this war as soon as possible.

For whatever it is worth, I spoke with a friend today. His wife owns a small property portfolio in Hoboken & Jersey city, around 100 apartments (she buys brownstones with his money, restores them and rents them out.) He said that they are fully rented (granted his wife is really good - went through Covid with essentially no vacancies and rent reductions), any apartment that they put on the market gets rented in days, not weeks, and rents are up 20-25% vs pre-pandemic levels. So may be some people are fleeing NYC but ending up in Jersey city.

The company needs an activist. I do not understand why corporate overhead is $40MM per annum, take a look at their website - a bunch of people who in my opinion should not be there. Also, they need to start buying back stock hand over fist, no way you can buy these assets at 5.5% cap rate in the private market, at 5.5% cap rate this is a $24 stock

Bought more VRE - 8% cap rate here unless I screwed up my math.

I agree with you that we need a well thought out immigration policy, but unlikely to get it. I forgot to mention Columbia doubling income taxes on top earners - more demand for Miami/Manhattan real estate.

What we need to keep in mind is that millions of people are and have poured over the Southern border, hundreds of thousands if not a million or two have and will come from Ukraine/Russia, and hundreds of thousands will come from China and India as immigration resumes and quite a few people in China are not happy with Covid-19 policies. Where will these 3-5 million people (say 500K-1.5MM households) live? This will put upward pressure on rental and ownership markets at all levers - both low income and high income.

You have forgotten numerous terrorist acts committed by Iranians, as well as its support for Al-Queda, and Hezbollah's attacks on US interests.