Dinar

These figures are NOT accurate. Ben Graham/Shiller's P/E has earnings adjusted for inflation. Take a look at S&P 500 EPS over the last decade, adjust for inflation and do the calculation. You do not get 28.48.

Yes, I am marking up assets to markets. Generally REITs do not, the only exception to that rule that I know of are REITs in UK, France, Hong Kong and Singapore which do, possibly Belgium and Spain as well. Investors have to do their own NAV calculations. Depends on the REIT, Clipper does offer excellent disclosure, including addresses and cost basis for each of their properties, as well as rental income, expenses, and net operating income.

When pupil said leverage at 3%, he meant debt bearing 3% interest, and that's what I responded to. We both used sloppy language. Clipper has debt paying about 3-3.75% per annum, but leverage as in Debt/Assets is obviously much higher than 3%. Debt / Assets (marking assets to market in my opinion) for Clipper = 55-60%.

I am sorry, but where do you get average inflation 1995-2007 = 4.5%? According to US CPI figures, average inflation was around 2.7% per annum in that period.

If you want 6%+ MF cap rates + 3% leverage, buy Clipper (I am long.)

If you think that EPRT and other NNN Reits will return 10-15% per annum on a going forward basis, I think you will be very disappointed. Just do the math based on the value of the portfolio (cap rates), cost of financing and you will see.

I would avoid stuff like EPRT and SRC, historically have been lousy investments

Just a data point. My daughter's private nursery school in NYC said that there will be no tuition increase for 2023-2024 academic year. Too late for us, but interesting.

In many states like NY, mortgages are fully recourse

There are long discussion threads on each one of these names and there are also VIC write-ups on all three.

Greg, you should take a look at Chris Hohn at TCI - I think he is as good as Ackman, also Nick Sleep - his letters are floating around the web, and he did his thing 20 years ago.

My favorite REITs at today's prices are: AIV, CLPR & VRE. If the price ever gets to $50, I will load up the truck on ELS - Equity Lifestyle

It is fantastic, I love this one

Given the very hard insurance market - supposedly 50% price increases, shouldn't profits be higher?

CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources

I think that you will regret your choice. BTI is losing volumes at 3%+ per annum, and even faster in the more profitable US market. Revenues barely grew by 3-4% in 2022 in constant currency despite 10% inflation. I would not touch it and Altria with a ten foot pole. PM (which I own) is a much better choice in my opinion.

Who do you trade expert stocks through? Thank you.

Make sure that you have enough money to pay the bills assuming the business does not make any money for three to five years.

I would say that the healthcare problem in the US is much much bigger issue and harder to solve than the real estate issue. It is a cancer on American society.

I think we should specify in which currency the portfolio performed, since USD is up 5%+ against the Euro and nearly 10% against the pound sterling in 2022.

Down 6.4%

There is always a chance, but it is difficult. A general rule of thumb is when a war starts, you borrow long at fixed rates and buy productive assets. The problem occurs when either your assets get destroyed in war, or revolution or via price controls.

I generally agree with you, except David Tepper who is a phenomenal trader went on CNBC a couple of weeks ago and said that he thinks S&P should go to 3000-3200

Bought Clipper (CLPR) today

Blackstone and its ilk will be materially less profitable on a going forward basis. Here is why: a) Less demand for their services. At zero interest rates, people have to flock to equities, real estate & private equity. At 7% on mortgage paper, they can just lend. b) A lot lower returns, and hence lower management and incentive fees. When you buy assets putting 20-50% down and using 50-80% debt financing at 3-4%, you make a lot of money. When you have to put 50% down and use 5-9% debt financing, returns on levered equity are much lower, so you have to charge less. c) Recent controversy (unjustified) in my opinion over gating at BREIT is not helping.