Dinar
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Posts posted by Dinar
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@dealraker, any view on wr berkeley? thank you
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Has it been able to grow ahead of inflation in recent years? When I looked at it last, I was shocked by lack of growth.
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1 hour ago, Parsad said:
Russia will win this thing if the U.S. and allies concede to dumbass deals like this:
Why they did this deal I'll never understand! Cheers!
You are 100% right, this is insanely stupid! Apparently Trump turned down the offer for Whelan before.
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@dealraker, I had a conversation with someone today who claimed that reinsurance pricing is going up 25-50% depending on the line. So, have you by chance heard something similar or different? Also, any particular reinsurers or reinsurance brokers that you either own or would consider owning/respect? Thank you.
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I would disagree re GS. The business is run for the benefit of employees, shareholders come last, and it would have gone bankrupt in 2008 without Buffett and Fed bail-out in my opinion.
Keep in mind, if under Jamie Dimon JPM could take a $50bn London whale hit, then why not GS?
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Most of the cap ex comes from the self-storage business, which requires very little maintenance cap ex.
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@dealraker, any chance that you could ask Wells Fargo analysts where they see numbers say a decade from now? Or forecasts of organic revenue growth for the next 5-10 years + what if any acquisitions? I know it is a tall ask, thank you.
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Spirax Sarco Engineering, Ashtead, Canadian Pacific (agree on Canadian National with @ourkid8), Heineken Holdings, L'Oreal, Dior (LVMH), Hermes (don't own it), Microsoft, Philip Morris International, MSGS (Madison Square Garden Sports), Campari,
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I am down 3% year to date.
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Why shouldn't target inflation = 0%? Switzerland has basically done that over the past several decades and is doing very well.
Datapoint on inflation - large accounting firm (several hundred professionals) asked for a price increase (did not raise fee in 2020 or 2021) of 10%, so accounting bill would be up 10% vs 2021 level. I would have fought, but given zero price increase in 2020 or 2021, figured that it was fair.
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44 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:
I dont necessarily think 5% is a problem, it can be, if the raising tide doesn't lift all boats...and it often doesnt.
As to confiscating wealth of society by those able and willing to take advantage of opportunities, yes I agree...and thats literally how it has always been throughout history regardless of interest rates, it might temporarily (in the grand scheme of things/history/timeline) ebb and flow...but the trend is clear and established...the low/middle class have been squeezed for the last 4-5 decades, I dont think that will ever change. They're gonna get squeezed at 2% and squeezed at 5%, might be a faster or slower squeeze. Everybody knows low heat is preferred, but low heat or high heat, the lobster is still getting cooked and the end result is the same for the little guy in the pot.
tax authorities confiscate wealth in a world of 5% inflation, that is what i was referring to
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@Gregmal, with all due respect, I disagree that 5% inflation on a consistent basis is not a problem. It confiscates the wealth of most people in society, except for the those able & willing to be long the stock market, and long property on a leveraged basis.
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I read somewhere that Europe could cut its nat gas consumption by 25% if it lowered thermostats in winter by 3 degrees Celsius and raised them as much in the summer. I do not know whether that is true or not, but if true, there is a lot of demand destruction that can happen world wide if people accept less comfort. Even 10% would be a gigantic change.
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48 minutes ago, Xerxes said:
Thank you. I went to a memorial service today for a professor of mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Radner, I never knew he was a big pacifist and spent a lot of time trying to figure out how to induce the world to disarm.
On a side note, there is a Russian saying - war writes off everything (meaning corruption in the military can magically disappear when war consumes non-existent stocks.)
Where are you traveling these days?
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31 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Most people would do the lazy institutional thing. Look at the NOI and then assign a cap rate. Maybe small premium or discount based on tenant quality.
That’s totally wrong. First, where is the dirt? It’s in one of the hottest MSA in America. Next, what’s it zoned for and what can it be zoned as? How business friendly is the area? Look at what similar parcels or acreage goes for. This is what’s called a covered land play. You have an income stream and investment grade tenant, but a huge call option to put something more valuable there. Look at what’s transpired with much of that South Florida assets. Even office is smokin hot. So while someone who’s never been outside an office cubicle in NY might arrive at a 7-8 cap on Excel…someone active in the market probably sees significantly more value and optionality and views a 7-8 cap as a total steal.
Well located properties aren’t just what they currently are, they’re also priced as a function of what they can be. Which highlights how dumb the “I’d rather buy treasuries at the same yield” argument is.
Is it really at a 7-8% cap rate?
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I would agree that inflation (official = recorded) will be higher in the next decade than in the past decade. I think due to de-globalization, demographics, dumbing down of American population, disdain for manual labor (even very highly skilled manual labor), belief that everyone should go to college to get a degree in film studies/gender studies/Shakespeare/art history/et all, lack of investment in commodities & housing. I think it will average 3-4% per annum on a going forward basis on a recorded/official basis, and probably 4-5% on a real basis.
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@SharperDingaan, what do you think of CNQ? It seems very cheap to me, but I am an oil/gas tourist.
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38 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:
One thing thats consistent with my thoughts is Jay-P is very focused on is Services (ex-home services) which is 50% of core PCE.....this is exactly what I speak about and where the problem is....everything else is coming down as we know everything that comes on shipping containers and tanker......these are haircuts, educations services for example & lots of other things but things that are domestically produced in nature and ultimately constrained by labor availability......and as he said today the scale of wages increases today are not consistent with inflation moderating back to 2% by itself.
"Finally, we come to core services other than housing. This spending category covers a wide range of services from health care and education to haircuts and hospitality. This is the largest of our three categories, constituting more than half of the core PCE index. Thus, this may be the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation. Because wages make up the largest cost in delivering these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category.
In the labor market, demand for workers far exceeds the supply of available workers, and nominal wages have been growing at a pace well above what would be consistent with 2 percent inflation over time.3 Thus, another condition we are looking for is the restoration of balance between supply and demand in the labor market.
Signs of elevated labor market tightness emerged suddenly in mid-2021. The unemployment rate at the time was much higher than the 3.5 percent that had prevailed without major signs of tightness before the pandemic. Employment was still millions below its level on the eve of the pandemic. Looking back, we can see that a significant and persistent labor supply shortfall opened up during the pandemic—a shortfall that appears unlikely to fully close anytime soon."
What has been educational inflation? I hear that private schools in NYC and Ivy League are raising tuition 4%, in line with historical averages, if not less than historical averages.
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@Viking, actually that is not correct. You are assuming that Social Security = 100% of those people's incomes. That is just not right. Once you take into account pensions, may often are not indexed to inflation - my father's isn't for instance, portfolio income, et cetera, the increase is not 8.7%.
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12 minutes ago, drzola said:
Guess all you want JAYGO but, maybe count to ten before your reptile brain responds in the future maybe eh?
May be you should take your insults to another website.
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4 hours ago, Xerxes said:
This Friday, in a theatre near you.
unrelated there has been some very interesting development with Boeing that will have long term consequences in the commercial industry at large. I will post those on Boeing thread and related articles. Quite interesting
Please do.
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Spek, I got hassled in NYC in Riverside Park by police for not having my mask on. I told them that according to NYS law, it is prohibited to wear mask (this is actually true), and also why would I need to wear a mask in park when the nearest person was 30 feet away. They said - these are our orders, you must put on your mask. I decided not to argue with them further, because I was afraid that I would be arrested. Bastion of liberty and law NY is not.
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1 hour ago, boilermaker75 said:
I understand that situation. I am at a large research university in a college town. A long commute is 15 minutes. I can bike to work in 12 minutes.
That's awesome. I love academia, I'd love an adjunct gig at a university (I'd do it for free) since I miss intellectual stimulation. There were a number of awesome professors in my PhD programs, very well rounded, very well read, very thoughtful and with plenty of common sense.
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Just now, drzola said:
What rights were trespassing truckers parking on non trucking routes in Canada denied Gregmai? I amust be ignorant in my own Country of origin's legal rights here ha.
The issue is double standards. When Black Lives Matters protesters flouted bans against protests/assemblies, rioted, looted, nothing was done. When Bible groups tried to meet, well, Covid rules prohibit that. When left wingers block bridges, roads, block speakers from campuses, that's o'k. When right-wingers do that, arrest them all.
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Not in my opinion, but he is fighting extradition to the US if I am not mistaken.