Dinar
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50 minutes ago, thepupil said:
I don't really agree with this. The bond market in total has duration of ~6.7 and yields 4.4%. if rates go up by say 3%, it'd lose about 20% (slightly less, but we'll use 20), less the yield along the way, so if it happened over a year you lose 16% (probably a little less). If rates went to 7.5% I'd expect stocks to be down far more than 16% unless risk premiums went negative. for corporates, you're starting to get pretty fat coupons/reinvestment such that you can recoup losses quickly through reinvestment.
stocks are perpetual instruments. they're far more vulnerable to increase in the cost of capital than bonds, generally. of course if you're talking a 30 year zero coupon that's a different story.
Not necessarily. It depends whether nominal interest rates are up because of inflation or real interest rates are up. If TIPS yield 5%, yes, the real discount rate for stocks should probably be 7-8%. So a company whose revenues grow in line with inflation should sell at a 12-14x free cash flow. However if TIPS yield 2%, and nominal rates = 7.5% because everyone expects 5.5% annual inflation as fas the eye can see, then using the same 2-3% risk premium, will result in a real discount rate = 5%, and the same company should trade closer to 20x free cash flow. Can good businesses sell at 10x free cash flow when inflation is 5% per annum, and TIPS yield 2%? Sure, why not, but that would be a phenomenal return on a going forward basis.
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3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
@SharperDingaan I haven’t seen craft beer pricing going up. At least the larger regional craft beer players product still can be bought in my local supermarket for $13.95 per 12 pack. That’s surprising given the higher packaging transportation and input (hops) cost. I am guessing that margins here are shrinking.
I do see some movement up for wine prices, especially at the premium side.
Spek, I know that Heineken said that they will push prices through to recapture the absolute amount of cost inflation, but that will still result in margins declines (revenues go up while EBIT stays unchanged) and also the company is in the midst of a major cost cutting drive. So that agrees with your datapoint, at least for Heineken, price hikes will not be as high as inflation.
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I think people underestimate the impact of high prices on demand, as well as tech companies cutting perks.
a) Many people are aggressively hiking prices, and will find out too late that demand collapsed, not because people can no longer afford the service/good, but because they decide it is no longer worth it. For instance, I was at a barber shop this morning, the barber used to charge $12 per haircut in 2012, $14 in 2018, and then raised it to $18 in 2020, $20 in 2021, and $25 in 2022. Normally by this time on a Saturday, the barber would have gone through a dozen clients, today he got through six. My brother in law, who makes excellent money as a computer programmer cut his haircuts from monthly to quarterly. He can afford to go monthly, but he says it is not worth it. My wife and I stopped getting take out, instead we go a couple of times a month to a Michelin restaurant, because we decided that take out was no longer worth it given price increases. We wanted to hire a driver to take us to the airport, he used to charge $70 this time he asked for $120, I said why? He said well gas prices went up. So my father drove us. I used to get croissants & pastries every Friday. In the last four years, the price doubled. I no longer get them. I just do not want to buy a croissant for $5, it is not worth it to me. A number of my friends are very wealthy, but they are all self-made, mostly immigrants. A number of them have stopped using drivers, or getting take out and in a couple of cases fired cleaning women after demands for large wage increases. As the wife of one of them put it, I remember making $200 a week, and I am not paying someone $250 to clean my 3000 sq foot house.
b) There are a lot of tech companies that pay for everything and pamper their workforces, including in crypto. I think that is going the way of the Dodo and that will significantly impact demand for services.
If the Biden administration continues on the path of giving trillions of dollars in welfare, then yes, inflation will continue to increase as there will be no incentive to work. However, if the government starts behaving like Bill Clinton in the 1990s, then I think inflation on a measured basis will go to 2-4% per annum, and 3-5% in reality.
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55 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Gas prices have come down to pre Russia levels. Off 30% from June. Rents as mentioned a couple months ago are hitting the August comp and moderating. Most groceries too are in that category as the transport and production costs come down. The average family will still focus on what is in the news the same way they do with everything. COVID a good example. Forward looking with the market though, it’s hard seeing much evidence in anything but rates that there is much prep or positioning for higher inflation. Inventories everywhere are bloated.
That said I don’t really see a whole lot of truly actionable events other than big time positioning for a big economic downturn. Which IMO now really does come down to how much the more “demand destruction” needs to be seen. Gundlach had good commentary on a deflationary setup. FedEx was also very enlightening.
At the moment I lean towards the current situation setting up a regular old run of the mill recession. One with a strong jobs market isn’t anything that is gonna be too painful, but at the same time, the academics and the economists and policymakers should play a decent role in shaping what the course of action is. The troubling trend of changing the definition of inflation and attacking any economic strength is certainly troubling, but at some point it should become clear that the trade offs aren’t worth it. I posted in another thread watching Inside Job again recently and it’s just so devious how interrelated the academics, hedge funds, and policy makers are. Larry Summers has been mentioned in some of these threads. Talk about a totally corrupted scumbag! So the situation is ever evolving but if the Fed wants moderating data they’re certainly going to see it. My take of the Fed is they’re well meaning but way too academic and often a few steps behind the ball. So in some respects, as Kuppy has mentioned, it’s about timing the pivot. I wouldn’t be shocked at 50 points next week, but 75 is fine too. What they do from there is probably the main thing of importance. They’ve already successfully created a lot of problems that didn’t exist a few months ago.
Greg, if you do not mind, can you elaborate on how you are protecting yourself against Fed engineered recession? (If I understood you correctly, you think that it is the biggest risk, right?) Are you selling JOE? Buying puts, if so on what index or sector?
Thank you.
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1 hour ago, mcliu said:
It's interesting that the West does not provide weapons to Armenia since it is a democratic country being invaded by an autocracy. Aren't there parallels between the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Ukraine-Russia conflicts?
And if the proxy war in Ukraine is about defending democracy, why is EU partnering with Azerbaijan?
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-eu-azerbaijan-gas-deal-is-a-repeat-mistake/
These are very good points. The short answer is that Armenia's allies are Iran and Russia, oh and Azerbaijan has a lot of oil and gas.
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2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Sources? I have not seen all that much hate against transmission lines, except the regular NIMBY syndrome.
Spek, I remember that for at least a decade or two there were attempts to bring hydroelectric energy from Canada to NY and the attempts were stopped by politicians or activist groups.
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2 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Ya so is their residential markets. But don’t feel bad for them, they’ve had two decades like few will ever see. It’s a result of their wokeness. Tech, aka them, drives work from home. All the new age mantra they embrace will be their undoing. I’d be much more comfortable in Boston which is a life science and financial hub, or NY which is heavily old school financial machismo and a good mix of everything else. Chicago is dead and SF is not dead but due for a major correction.
Amen, that's why I have 17% of my portfolio in NEN (bought in 2004, sold in 2007, and bought back in fall of 2009.)
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Don't forget how idiots in NY State (Democrats) would not allow transmission line of hydro generated electricity from Canada and as mentioned before no natural gas pipelines either.
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1 hour ago, crs223 said:
I stand corrected. Yes someone making $750k/year can still afford a first home.
Your example leaves me even more convinced that the present imbalance will not last.
Instead of making absurd assertions, why don't you do a simple search of how many properties under $2MM there are for sale within 30 mile zip code of 93101? I found over a hundred. There is no reason why a couple of doctors/lawyers/computer programmers cannot live in that area. Why do you expect that someone who works at McDonalds should be able to afford to live in a very nice area?
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16 minutes ago, crs223 said:
No working person under ~35 can buy a first home within 30 miles of my neighborhood (93101).
Even if we assume the younger generation is useless… this imbalance will not last.
1. Home prices will fall
2. Incomes will rise
3. Resources will be redistributed
4. No more first time homebuyers ever
My bet: (4) will not happen. Each election cycle without (1) or (2) will bring more (3).
Student loan forgiveness is just the beginning.
Seriously? Based on what do you make this assertion? Why can't a Google couple making $750K per annum each can't? Why can't a couple of lawyers buy it?
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Sure, wealth effect plays a huge role, particularly for retirees. However, how about a Medicaid effect? I saw figures that claimed 88MM Americans are on Medicaid, sure some of them are elderly and children, but why aren't the parents of those children as well as able bodied adults working? Why is nobody talking about this? Surely a much larger impact than baby boomers.
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Could not agree more with SD, most managers treat their workers like garbage, and it shows!
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5 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:
Your supposition might be correct - this is economics there are puts and takes everywhere, its never quite one thing but always a multitude.
However @ERICOPOLY supposing you are correct and you've nailed the predominant key driver of the inflation issue.....excess demand relative to a reduced labor force that became impaired by boomers retiring in droves.
I'll ask you this:
Does it, in practical terms, matter what caused it? If what caused it, boomers retiring, isn't changing anytime soon?
We have excess demand relative to the productive capacity of the economy...........that labor capacity lost to retirement is NOT coming back but the demand remains.......short of forcing over 55's to un-retire by dictate. You and I have different ideas on what predominately caused the excess demand relative to the productive capacity of the economy - but the diagnosis doesn't change the symptoms, in fact one can argue that your thesis speaks to a much more permanent and sustained downshift in the aggregate productive capacity of the US economy driven by demographics which speaks to more intractable inflation than what I'm theorizing.
Of course the causes matter, because then the solutions are different. If the issue is declining labor force participation rate, then the question is how to address it.
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Could also be due to population being dumber and dumber, due to both genetics and educational system getting worse and worse. In my co-op, a pair of Princeton educated Koreans (Harvard Law & Yale Law) - zero kids, they are both in their 40s. Indian couple - both work for Google (two kids), white couple (he is a CEO of a large company) - 1 kid, average number of kids per family - two. Meanwhile, porter has four kids, super has four kids, and welfare recipients in Harlem six plus? Quality of public schools has gone down sharply, and by the way the quality of private schools as well. I compare what my niece and nephew learn and what learned at that age in public school, and boy the quality has deteriorated sharply.
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1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:
Yeah it can @ERICOPOLY, the only reason there is a labor shortage.....is because there's an EXCESS of demand. The Fed is in the demand destruction business now, which in turn solves the labor shortage, right?
Not if Biden keeps giving $500bn giveaways left and right. Trump started this idiocy (unemployment benefits in excess of wages, mailing checks to people) and Biden and Democratic Congress are happy to push this train downhill. You want to solve the labor shortage? Stop giving away money, cut social spending - welfare, section 8 housing, student loans, free heat/cell phone/telephone service, food stamps & medicaid, and see millions rejoin the labor force.
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Greg, you are absolutely correct. The question is, how many people across the economy are working because they want to rather than because they have to? If it is say 10% of the labor force, and half of them quit, then employers have zero leverage. I guess we will find out.
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19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
@Dinar maybe GS just needs to move these lower paying jobs away from Manhattan. Havn't‘t they done this anyways over the years? Perhaps this is just their way of getting rid of some people in the leaner times to come and move these jobs to cheaper locations where they can pay less.
Yes, they ought to. They have done some - Salt Lake City, et all, but not enough.
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According to NY Post, Goldman Sachs sent out an email earlier today telling people to go back to the office 5 days a week. The question is whether it will stick. In my opinion, there are three problems as far as GS is concerned: a) a lot of people who work for the firm do not need to work, and treasure the absence of commute, so how many will actually comply? b) Economically speaking, people may decide that it is no longer worth working for the firm (not on the business side, but support staff). NYC/Jersey city has seen rents rise 15-20% in the past year and probably 30%+ from pre-pandemic levels, GS has not raised compensation 30% since 2019. Given that most of the staff lives in the suburbs, when it costs $3600 per year to commute from Bergen County to 200 West or $4800 from Scarsdale and one is saving 15-20 hours per week by working from home, some people may decide it no longer makes economic sense to work for GS and look either for jobs that allow remote full time, or several days a week, or are in mid-town or even in the suburbs. c) People have changed their lifestyle in the last couple of years - acquired pets, for instance, which will require dog walkers if nobody is home to walk them. Working during the winter from say Florida or Hawaii and in the summer from Europe or Long Island or Maine is plenty attractive. Sure, if GS pays me $2MM per year, I will be in the office 5 days a week, although if I do not need the money since I am say 35-40, then the calculus may change. However, if I work in the back office and get $120-$150K, and now you are telling me that I need to be in the office 5 days a week, which means $3-5K annual commuting costs, say another $2-3K in extra lunch/dry cleaning costs and on top of that, I need to be spending 15-20 hours per week on the train/bus, then may be I look for another gig. After all, there are 11MM jobs available. I think this will spectacularly backfire unless GS significantly boosts comp particularly for the lower paid part of the workforce, and I guarantee you that ain't going to happen.
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The consequences will be very bad when 100+ million of people living in corrupt countries join. Corruption and the culture of corruption is breathtaking in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. Oh, and majority voting on tax and foreign policy - that will work out real well. Be careful what you wish for. I am sure a 20% excise tax on Germans to fund help for the poor (aka corruption in the EU) will prove popular with Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. Oh, and and majority rules, so you Germans work while we drink wine at your expense.
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I would like to make two points: a) there is no way that US has 3-4% annual productivity growth, were are lucky if we have 1% per annum b) the biggest driver of inflation is very loose fiscal policy pursued by the US, not monetary policy. For instance, Biden's 30% increase in food stamps in 2021, two stimulus bills by Trump, the 2nd one absolutely unnecessary, Biden's third round of stimulus and now his build back better bill recently passed. There is not much monetary policy can do when gov't gives out 10% of GDP over two years in additional welfare/fiscal subsidies/etc... We will not get inflation under control until Federal government stops acting like a drunken sailor on leave.
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In Manhattan, for roughly half a dozen apartments I looked at, it was off by 15% on average.
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9 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Glen Rock is a woke hell hole. You wouldn’t want to live there now. It’s not what it was 15 years ago.
What a pity, thank you very much for the heads up.
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21 minutes ago, KJP said:
That's probably fair, but you will find that in most of the areas you mentioned, e.g., Wayne. In any event, LMSD, particularly the parts closer to the city like Merion and Penn Wynne, is quite overcrowded.
One area you might add to your list is Lower Gwynedd. It's in Wissahickon SD, which isn't as lauded as Tredyffrin, Radnor, or LMSD but I know parents that have moved there from LMSD and prefer it.
Newtown/Bucks County also has a much different feel than the Main Line. Much more open space, orchards, etc. And Doylestown and New Hope/Lambertville are nice options as far as those size towns go. If you wanted a similar feel but west of the city, there are areas (i) between Newtown Square and West Chester, and (ii) northwest of Rt. 202 around Methacton and Worcester that have a similar feel. They are probably a 1.25 hour (at least) commute into the city if that matters.
KJP, thank you very much. Newtown/Buck County was a choice due to its Russian community, which values education and abhors political correctness.
Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?
in General Discussion
Posted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/tight-labor-market-eases-for-chipotle-cmg-del-taco-jack-others?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg