Dinar
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Posts posted by Dinar
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6 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:
When you sign up for margin, there is a line that gives broker the permission. You are correct that they don't have to inform you when they lend out your shares.
@Mephistopheles if you want to avoid this, you need cash only account where you don't sign up for security lending.
You need a margin account if you want to trade options.
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5 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:
Yea, IBKR customer service fails yet again....so back to square one. These shares do not show up as lent securities in my activity statement. Why am I getting payment in lieu?
If at the day before ex-dividend the shares were lent out (either via a stock lending program or because you have a margin account) then this would happen. Some brokers will lend out your shares without your permission even if you do not have margin debt simply because you have a margin account.
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I do not think that this is correct. Payment in lieu of dividends is when your shares are lent out. This is regardless of whether you are using margin or not. I used margin last year and none of my dividend income was payment in lieu of dividends.
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7 minutes ago, LC said:
Tender offer for a huge chunk of the outstanding - and the shares already trade above the tender price. Interesting situation. Do you have a long term thesis or is this a trade?
It is a long-term investment. I have followed the company for a couple of years, but I was not 100% sure that the operating margin improvement was sustainable. Given the size of the tender offer and the fact that the management that owns 12% is not tendering, I figure that not only profitability is sustainable, but that there is either a massive profitability improvement coming down the pike or there is another ace up management's sleeve. Had they bought out all of the shares at $925 per share that they wanted, the stock would have been trading at 9x my 2025 EPS.
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COKE - the bottler
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3 hours ago, longterminvestor said:
Random thoughts:
- If you want to compare to Mr. Buffett (which it is a mistake) but if you want to, think about this. In 2000, Berkshire's "equity portfolio" was $37B total. $28B of the $37B (75%) were in 5 businesses: Amex, Coca Cola, Gillette, Washington Post, & Wells. Need to further unpack that $28B because it basically was permanently allocated - Amex/Cocoa Cola (still owned and untouched) makes up $20B of the $28B, Gillette turned into P&G which was turned into a tax free exchange for Duracell, Washington Post turned into cash, shares of Berkshire, and a TV station (tax efficient), Wells at $3B was added/trimmed and finally sold with sizable gain in 2022 - if not for a little scandal, arguably, he would still be holding today. That leaves $9B (25%) to allocate in 2000. Lets just say that again, $9B was a lot in 2000 but nothing today in relation to size of portfolio.
- Ted/Todd manage roughly $15B each, that's 10% of Berkshires "investments in equity securities". Pittance in relation to Mr. Buffett's $300B+.
- Traditional money managers/hedge funds may have $20B, $40B, $60B+. They employ 100's of people. Ted/Todd each have 1 assistant.
- Size is the biggest thing holding them back from outsized returns, who knows what other funds actually manage and their are some lists out there but here is the point, they are tiny in comparison. Both Ted/Todd proved they could deliver outsized returns with small amounts of capital in previous life. Also previous market cycle.
- Ted/Todd true value will only shine through once the loaming shadow of Mr. Buffett is gone
- Finding a "stock picker" successor was not the task for Mr. Buffett in looking for replacement, it was about capital allocation for the next 10/15/20years. Giving Ted/Todd a traditional yardstick to compare performance is not the game although monthly reports are shown to CEO.
- Trying to paint Ted/Todd as classical money managers is a mistake. They do many things for Berkshire. And just having them at the ready for future issues is important. I view them as the fire sprinkler alarm handle inside Berkshire. Rarely used but when needed incredibly important.
- Ted/Todd are going to make some mistakes with hindsight, they will lose money. Mistakes are fine. Permanent loss of large amounts of capital is not fine and trusting someone to do that job as well as deliver "alpha" is yeoman's work - could prove to be difficult in coming years as capital amounts grow.
- Ted/Todd have not had an opportunity, due to the "Fed Put" and other governmental intervention, to operate in a prolonged bear market. Everyone has made money for previous 12-15years - most glorious bull market in history coming off 2008-2009 financial crisis.
- Ted/Todd will also have to replace themselves at the end of their tenure and finding someone who can replace themselves is not an easy job. I believe both Ted/Todd have the character traits to attract/find the right kind of replacement when that time comes.
Final thought:
- Berkshire today is not the same company as Berkshire in 2000. Different game.
- Ted/Todd's value will be shown when they can allocate significant sums into situations - $50B-$100B+ and there be a significant margin of safety.
- Mr. Buffett has repeatedly said Ted/Todd are Berkshire's intellectual property. Almost like the recipe for Coca Cola, you don't share the recipe hence the reason why they do not get on the mic and to cast their views on markets/businesses. I tend to agree.
- Looking forward to watching them both grow as managers/allocators and be stewards of Berkshire's capital (our money).
With all due respect, where do you get the idea that Todd delivered outsized returns before Berkshire? As for size being an impediment to their performance, first of all, they clearly missed: MSFT, Alphabet, Meta, LVMH, Hermes, Costco, Chipotle, Progressive, Visa, MasterCard, and the list goes on and on. Also, somehow large size did not prevent sir Christopher Hohn from putting damn good numbers.
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15 minutes ago, Hektor said:
You mean the Muslims in India are treated the way Muslims treat Christians and other minorities in Muslim majority countries? Actually, Christians and other minorities in Muslim majority countries can't even dream of being treated the same way that Muslims are treated in India. How are Christians and Zoroastrians and Bahai of Iran treated? Christians of Iraq? Christians of Lebanon and Egypt? You cannot build a church in Saudi Arabia. How are Christians treated in Chechnya?
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5 hours ago, DooDiligence said:
Terrible place to be from. I remember my parents going to a school/church meeting when a black family was trying to get their kid into Pius. My parents had them over for dinner and the neighbors hated us afterwards because they thought my folks were trying to sell the house to black people (the place was for sale at the time). We moved to Milton, FL around 8th grade. No more futbol until I went to AATC in Ozark, AL (Airframe & Powerplant mechanic training), and another student organized a squad. I'd love to find a good sax player!
I was fortunate to hear Sonny Rollins live a couple of decades ago in Carnegie Hall. Still love to listen to Coltrane. You got to spend some time in NY for the music - we went an amazing Argentian music concert the other day - Pablo Ziegler.
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26 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:
Yes. I (62yom) went to Catholic school in Mobile, AL when he was still at Man U. Played soccer at St. Pius X and our coach (Fr. Nicolas) was straight from the motherland. I had nun's all the way to the 7th grade and thought most of them were IRA terrorists. I still get nervous when I hear Edelweiss because of the trauma of sister Gertrude's music class. Was an alter boy, love fart jokes and my Dad grew up in the UK. Dribble on brother!
edit: I don't keep up with what's going on in the game now but do catch important matches. Don't care who wins, just enjoy watching the artistry.
That's funny, my college suit mate was from Mobile Alabama. Black kid who played the saxophone, although he is 15 years younger than you are.
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7 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:
We live paycheck to paycheck and are very happy with this.
Though I'm not american...
I work 80% and my wife 60%, we got a massive mortgage so that we did not have to put up a lot of money up front and instead invest it.
So we don't really save any money from our paycheck, we spend most of it leading a normal comfortable life and whatever is left we use for renovations.
That said, our portfolio's combine to roughly 6 years of net annual salaries.
The gains we realise on this (which are untaxed in my country) outweigh whatever we could save by working more because the tax rate on labor is so high (55% in the highest bracket, where I am).
Belgian?
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So, I think that this is sadly very true. Two examples from this week:
a) A doctor and his wife, $400K+ annual income in NYC, two kids, late 40s, kids aged 12 and 7. Zero savings, except for $300K in 401(k). Own their apartment, worth probably $800K (there is a mortgage on it), which was bought nine years ago, with the downpayment provided by parents. Spend money like drunken sailors - take out several times a week, camps for kids at $25K total for the summer, three vacations per year including a $20K cruise in 2023.
b) A doorman (who just got fired) and his wife, a cook for NYC DOE. The guy also worked a second job. Combined income of about $100K after-tax, two kids both grown and out fo the house. Couple's age is 50. Zero savings. Why? Stupid decisions - no bank account so 3-5% paid on every check cashed, smoking a pack a day ($7K per annum on cigarettes per person) and things of that nature.
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16 minutes ago, Sweet said:
What’s the argument? That the allies should have diverted bombers to bomb the concentration camps?
The argument is that Allies did not give a damn about saving Jews, and fought Nazis for their own reason and not for the purpose of saving Jews. This does not take anything away from the sacrifice of millions of young men who lost their lives or became seriously injured. I and everyone in the West owes them a deep debt of gratitude. However to say that Allies fought to save Jews when they took every opportunity not to is absurd.
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30 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:
Peace .... and an end to 7-months of war.
SD
Peace? What are you smoking? Hamas has claimed time and time again that it will fight until Israel ceases to exist. There was peace on October 6th, so if Hamas is interested in peace, why did it attack on October 7th? Hamas has never shown that it wants peace. It wants a break in hostilities until an opportune time to strike again. https://www.answering-islam.org/Terrorism/peace_concept.html. Read the Quran, and read the history of Islam.
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22 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:
Keep in mind that as long as the Gaza war remains ‘over-there’, the western world can just wring its hands, and send weapons/money. Different story when it’s ‘here too’, on campuses all over the world; and much more effective when the targets are the kids of the wealthy - with disproportional influence.
It is a simple matter to divert Israeli bound artillery shells, rockets, bullets, etc. to the Ukraine which desperately needs them; and straight forward to ‘delay’ gasoline and money flows as well. It is also hard to prosecute a strike for any length of time with limited reserves, and a horrific daily burn.
Over the weekend, Hamas offered peace and an end to the war; the only reason the war continues today is because Israel chose to walk away in favour of a strike on Rafah. Hot pursuit is defensible, whereas this? …. not so much.
Cut off the oxygen, and even a warlord can only live for so long.
SD
What has Hamas exactly offer, besides bombing a humanitarian crossing?
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1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:
Check the Jordan Times against Al Jazeera, for a pretty good take on the Arab street; The Times of Israel for the other side. Just keep in mind that the nuttier Israel gets, the harder the Israeli propaganda will be.
The Israelis are about to experience a world of hurt for walking away from the peace talks. Expect the IDF to be branded as 'baby killers', with lurid pics of naked dead/starving Gaza infants at the feet of actors dressed in IDF uniform. Expect the IDF to be branded 'out of control' with lurid examples of units made up of particular sects committing war crimes in the settler communities. Expect comparisons of the IDF vs the German Army under the control of Hitler; they didn't act either, and it wiped out millions of the Allied/Axis population - the same as the deliberate famine/disease in Gaza. Then add the new IDF casualties from the Rafah offensive, where the intent will be as much maiming as possible.
Whatever ones view; this worked very well during the Vietnam era, and in 2024 the targets will be Israeli students on American campuses (new hostages). Served in the IDF before school? baby killer. Haven't served yet? draft-dodging coward. How long before the parents of those privileged students make themselves felt?
They need a way out, and the sooner the better.
SD
WTF are you talking about? Millions of dead in Gaza? If Israel acted as Nazi Germany, you would not have had this war, there would have been no Arabs in Israel, Gaza and West Bank since 1967.
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I cut my position by roughly 80% post Q1 results in February, and I sold the rest today. I just don't think the company is analyzable today, and if we go into recession it can be a zero.
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26 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:
Started with small positions today in :
BALB B.STO [Fastighetsbolaget Balder AB, ser. B, Göteborg, Sweden], &
CAST.STO [Castellum AB, Stockholm, Sweden].
I may change my mind about them and sell them at any moment, thereby considering the buys of them errors.
Why? ty
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I would like to know is where those losses on equity investments came from. It seems that aside from profit on the swap, return on the equity portfolio was not lousy.
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Buy a farm with a supply of water, learn how to raise animals and fruits & vegetables, source of energy - ideally hydro and solar (both) and far away from civilization yet close enough so you can get it from your house.
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Actually, I think 25-30 year TIPS with 2.4-2.5% real yield are a no-brainer here for non-taxable and tax-deferred accounts, assuming inflation will get measured properly.
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1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:
Hi @Dinar,
Your post above reads as if it perhaps the outcome / conclusion from some kind of screening. Could you please mention one or a few names with tickers?
John, I met with an acquaintance of mine yesterday, he is a retired hedge fund manager who had an incredible track record for many years. As many other very wealthy people who made their fortunes in 1980-2010 period, he is very bearish in general given the tremendous US budget deficit. He feels that Norwegian savings banks give him an investment that is extremely low risk (loans are mostly to Norwegian consumers who are in very good shape, and will be bailed out by Norwegian sovereign wealth fund), additional quirks (40% ownership by Norwegian foundations) further lowers credit risk, trade at 10x p/e with 12-13% ROE, 5%+ dividend yields, and possibly appreciating currency vs USD. So call it a 10% return in NOK and more in USD.
Saw I was curious if anybody had looked at these things.
He did not mention any specific names, and I have not looked into these things yet.
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Has anyone looked at them?
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@thepupil just make sure that you can deduct margin interest on your tax return. I got hit with that last year, got the deduction on the federal level but did not get on the state level. Painful in a place like NYC
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44 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:
Also bought MSCI today ... was down -15% at one point. Huge switching costs and I like their approach to capital allocation. Rare to get a quality compounder like this on sale.
I disagree with you. There are no switching costs, and tremendous customer concentration with customers incentivized to switch.
"Payment in lieu of dividends" on tax form (USA)
in General Discussion
Posted
It must depend on the broker, or rules have changed. 15 years ago when I opened a couple of brokerage accounts, I needed to have a margin account in order to trade options, although I did spreads so may be that was the reason.