Spooky

Thanks GFP. Do you have a set of prompts you would be willing to share for analyzing 10Qs?

Yes, this is where I think Canada / Alberta made a mistake with the oil sands. The Albertan economy is mostly reliant on Oil and Gas and feels like they are suffering from dutch disease. Look at the success that Norway has had. On the SWF, I too am sceptical on the management. CPPIB has been kind of a bust. But Canada needs some big and bold ideas to get things moving forward again. Even better if the public can have an ownership stake in some of these transformative investments. This is the other issue with the oil sands is that the public bears the cost of the environmental degradation but the profits are privatized. Probably would be better to: a) give every new Canadian born a trust with some VCN; b) the government pushes forward more public private partnerships and cuts down on regulatory burden; c) the government has a position on the cap table through its share of the taxes on profits and/or partnership interests but lets private industry do the driving.

Thanks. Too many ideas, too little free capital these days

Nice, a sovereign wealth fund for Canada makes a lot of sense to me.

Not to derail the thread but do you think this is an attractive entry point for Nintendo? Or the other companies you listed?

I would disagree with this a little. At our company, with lots of software developers, we are trying to push people not to think about AI for a few percentage point increases in productivity but rather in terms of increasing it by 10X. Like the tools are there if we shift our thinking to really accelerate what we are doing.

This is a big worry of mine. The AI companies and models are black boxes so it is so hard to know how they are using all the data being fed into them, even if you have contractual protections you will never be 100% sure.

I agree with frommi - I recently experienced a 50% draw down with my biggest concentrated position. I try and not really look at the share price itself but at the results of the underlying business. As long as the business / thesis still makes sense then the stock price will follow over time. I'm trying to break the habit of check the markets every day but it is hard. Would be better to just look at the prices on a monthly or quarterly basis. Also, try and ignore all the other people's results, it is a road to envy and unhappiness. A lot of my friends are gold bugs so they have performed well lately but it is a bad idea to change your strategy to chase short term performance. Better to have an internal score card and set the standards and goals for yourself. For instance, my goal is to compound my wealth at 10% a year with the highest probability of success. As long as I am meeting that metric I will be successful. Could be an opportunity to do a deep dive on your process and make sure it is still working in line with your financial goals.

I haven’t been following this thread much but I’m in Milan and it is amazing here. Seems like there is tonnes of money.

Chamath wants to be perceived as equal or better than Buffett so badly... it's sad. I will always remember him as the SPAC king.

Wish the article went into more detail, seemed kinda fluffy.

Any particular index fund? I have been just thinking of putting it into VCN and calling it a day.

Anyone got some ideas for a Canadian company I could hold in my RRSP for the next 10+ years? I've already got a sizeable position in Fairfax and very large one in CSU although I'm always tempted to add more.

+100

I agree with that. Given the size of portfolios people on the board have (with some exceptions I'm sure), there is probably always something attractive to do. My view is ABB: Always Be Buying.

How is the new model 4.7? Claude has really been throttling my usage the last few days. For CSU to issue a press release it would need to be $100M+

This chart really says it all. CPI is up but just back to levels we saw recently. Core is still above target but not affected since it ignores food and energy. Meanwhile WSJ headline is “Inflation Soared”. Hopefully elevated energy prices don’t stick around too long.

You will have to give me some pretty good odds. OpenAI looks doomed.

This was awesome, cudos to the author for having more ethical integrity than 99% of the industry. Some of the points in the article resonated with me like his discipline on managing lifestyle creep. Going back to the discussion at hand, tail risk is always prevalent and I don't think that you can reliably predict when or what will occur, it can be a black swan event. So you have to invest in a way to survive these events but still harvest the ~6% real returns for owning equities over the long run. As Taleb would say: anti-fragile. The crux of the issue is really: 1) own companies that will survive anything that is thrown at them; and 2) never be a forced seller (being able to capitalize on these dislocations like Buffett is a bonus, but is not strictly required over the very long run). I agree with Viking that the way you approach this depends on what stage of life you are in. For me, at the moment I have ~99% of my wealth invested in equities. However, I really don't care about volatility at all and have set up a few ways to mitigate the downside: I have no debt and don't use margin; I rent my place so worse case scenario I can give 60 days notice and I am out of there; I am disciplined on my financial expenses and avoiding lifestyle creep; and I have a small emergency fund and access to undrawn credit. I also take a different lens when evaluating companies to own, inverting and focusing on the risk of a permanent loss of capital. As I get older I am gravitating more towards just broad based global equity ETFs.

Yea I agree. There will also potentially be some demand destruction so could slow the economy offsetting inflation.

You are mostly correct. The tariff issue was a clear one time price hike so the fed was right not to act. Here there is still a lot of uncertainty in terms of how this war will develop and its impact on the global economy. It's not looking pretty for Europe and Asia. If this thing drags on or escalates and inflation expectations start creeping up the fed might need to act. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. This Eye on the Market piece from JPM was pretty good, goes into a lot of detail about the impact of the energy shock so far: https://cdn.jpmorganfunds.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/pandoras-bog-amv.pdf

You make the rational decision and everyone still hates you anyway!

You could certainly be right. The oil intensity of global GDP has decreased significantly from the 1970s. Increased energy and food inflation will be discounted by the Fed in any event. I just hope this war ends soon.