Spooky

This is an interesting idea. Pivot more to deep value / Ben Graham style investing rather than Munger style investing in wonderful companies. The key question always comes back to moats - who will have a sustainable competitive advantage in an AI world? In this AI world, will markets become more efficient? One thing is for sure, us and the companies we invest in need to be adaptable, resilient / anti-fragile, and learn fast.

Wow. The Onion is fearless.

Wake up man. How many recounts were there? How many lawsuits did Trump try and bring after the election and lost them? It is troubling that the FBI has now broken the chain of custody over these ballots so can now make up some kind of false claims. Why is the FBI / Director of National Intelligence wasting time re-litigating the past and Trump's grievances? There are way better uses of their time....

Bye bye tariffs! Don't know why it took the Supreme Court so long.

Agreed, better to buy guns, bullets and seeds. Form a Posse.

I don't know, for a long time Go was thought to be too complex of a game for AI to master. Go has more possible positions than atoms in the observable universe, making it impossible for traditional "brute force" AI to win by calculating every move. Hey Siri, maximize shareholder value!

Crazy to think about where we will be in another 10 years.

The best model I've used is the new Google Gemini 3 model but I haven't tried the newest Anthropic 4.6.

Why not both? Barbell strategy with x) land and guns; and y) 100% stock portfolio.

+1. This is what I have been thinking as well.

I'm not so sure about this. Look at Google's Alpha Go - it came up with a totally new strategy to win a game that has been played by humans for over 2,000 years.

Pretty impressive result!

Anyone starting to compile a database of materials that an AI tool can access and crawl? For instance, stuff like the Berkshire letters, Nomad letters, ML letters, PDF books, mental models / biases, etc.? We could build our own CoBF database / virtual investor.

It definitely is for companies like Amazon. The implications for society will be huge.

Are we starting to see strong GDP growth without corresponding job growth?

Some big downwards revisions in job numbers from 2024 and 2025. January headline numbers also seem a little funky to me...

I agree - the right call was to look through the tariffs as a one time thing. They did have some knock on effects which were somewhat harder to predict. I struggle with investing based on macro, especially since we haven't gone through a real deflationary period for a long time so the recent past would lead you to be in 100% stocks. Even if you break down inflation there is deflation in certain segments like household electronics / TVs etc. and the inflation is within other categories like education, healthcare etc... Just seems like there is a lot of uncertainty and volatility out there, maybe I should spend some more time looking at bonds...

Guys, is there a real argument to buy bonds now? AI could be hugely deflationary or if there are mass layoffs tank the economy. With the S&P at a 30x P/E, maybe there is an alternative to stocks.

So much for debasement and hyperinflation...

This seems plausible to me. Google Search was one of, if not the best, business models in history. They are pivoting to a new, untested business model with significant capex spending (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Google are going to spend 2.1% of total US GDP on CapEx this year). At the margins, the new business is not as attractive as the previous one yet it is being priced at 30x earnings (above the last 5 year average of 24.8x) due to being perceived as the AI winner. With a PEG of 0.7 the market is baking in 40-42% earnings growth. Seems like it could get whacked if we see some margin compression.

Agreed, I think Microsoft and Amazon are going to be the middlemen through which enterprises access the LLMs (and Google to a lesser extent) since they have the enterprise cloud networks already. At work we are using Microsoft Foundry and can just add LLMs directly into our Azure environment with one click.

Only $75k more to go now to reach fair value.

You do realize it is because of the actions of the Trump administration that we are doing this? Carney's stance might be too aggressive but he is at least trying to do what needs to get done to diversify and build more trading relationships. The US has weaponized the fact that it buys 75% of Canadian exports. It is a sane policy to enter into more free trade agreements and find new customers for products. If this was a business with such large customer concentration people would view that as too risky. The problem with Canada is that we have been too complacent for too long. We had a good thing going so no need to rock the boat but now the world has changed. It will be painful in the near term but worth it in the long run if we can pull it off.

A basket of individual stocks could work well then. I'm a buyer of Fairfax and CSU. Maybe add in a bank or two (oligopolies), one of the telcos (oligopolies) and some resource companies.