Spooky

Ok I am done with this discussion. There is no point.

Sure I'll do my own research with a view to finding the truth. Even assuming there is some truth to this, how can you go after Biden while ignoring what Trump and his children have received from from China? Don't you think he has a conflict of interest? It looks like from the materials you sent Biden received $40,000 but Trump's businesses received $5.5M (that we know of) from the Chinese government while he was president.

Can you please send me a source for the millions in payments received by the Biden family from China? You are accusing me of ignoring facts but you didn't respond to any of the facts about Trump and his business interests. The reality is that trump has done exactly what you are accusing Biden of, it is all out in the open. How can you trust someone to act in the best interests of the US when his businesses received $5.5M from China during his presidency (and who knows what else was promised after he left office)? Someone who would throw Ukraine under the bus unless they give him a quid pro quo to help him get dirt on Joe Biden? Trump's handling of Kim Jong Un / North Korea was a joke - do you not remember all the flattering / declaration of love by Trump? Do you not remember how he treated South Korea, a key ally of the US in the region? It didn't accomplish anything. China has been making threats about Taiwan for so long, including under the Trump administration. This was just one article I found with a quick google search: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-vows-to-resolutely-smash-any-taiwan-independence-moves/2020/05/29/ae9c1af0-a158-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html As part of a NATO country I am praying that Trump and the republicans do not come into power again. https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-never-help-europe-under-attack-eu-official-cites-trump-saying-2024-01-10/

I am trying to keep an objective view and just focus on the facts / reality as it is and just limit my response to the China / Taiwan issue in this thread. I am not an American so hopefully I have more of an outsider's view. I have not seen any creditable evidence that Biden has been compromised by payoffs to China and yet we have seen the opposite with Trump. China was by far the largest spender at Trump's properties while he was in office: https://www.wsj.com/politics/china-saudi-arabia-top-list-of-foreign-governments-that-spent-millions-at-trump-properties-during-his-presidency-277317cb. There is also the matter of the Chinese trademark's held by Ivanka that were fast tracked once Trump became president: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/22/ivankas-trademark-requests-were-fast-tracked-in-china-after-trump-was-elected/?sh=6f9b99e51d60. He also promised Xi in a phone call that he would remain silent on the issue of Hong Kong democracy: https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/04/politics/trump-xi-hong-kong-protests/index.html Trump failed to divest / put his business interests into a blind trust as required under the constitution and is profiting from potential enemies of the US which creates a conflict of interest. As we have seen many times, trump is only looking to enrich himself and is a threat to American interests and the American led international world order. If we want to talk about US foreign policy and international security more generally that probably needs a different thread.

Not to get political but Biden has explicitly stated the US would defend Taiwan multiple times (against the advice of his advisors). Trump was the one who told Xi he didn't care about them cracking down on Hong Kong and would likely abandon Taiwan and also NATO. Seems like the America First / international isolationism is a republican priority.

Thanks Dinar, pretty interesting.

Over a 30 year period I agree that an index fund makes the most sense. Personally, I would probably pick something like the Vanguard All Equity Portfolio (VEQT.TO in Canada) since this gives you international diversification. VOO / SPY would be another solid choice. If I needed to pick individual stocks I would pick BRK and CSU.TO. These are essentially diversified conglomerates with world class capital allocators at the top that have a tiny probability of going bankrupt. Over a 30 year time period, the capital allocation skill of management is probably the most important factor. The governance and incentive structures are also critically important to foster a long term view, ensure alignment between management and shareholders and ensure the company has the correct CEO. CSU's board is comprised of a large number of executives / insiders who have been at the company for a very long time and have a significant proportion of their wealth invested in the stock. Typically this has been the same at BRK but it may change in the future. Greg did purchase about $100M of stock with his own money though. My last thought is that BRK is like an index fund to a degree - Warren and Charlie have set their criteria for buying companies (see the Todd Combs interview from the Graham and Dodd breakfast). You can evaluate these criteria against the criteria set by Standard and Poor's. BRK also has some advantages versus the S&P (insurance float acting as leverage, no dividends so more tax efficient in taxable accounts). I also like the tilt towards energy given that in the future we are going to need more and more energy and they are becoming a big player in the space with good assets in the US with advantages against competitors (being able to retain capital for reinvestment rather than needing to have a high dividend payout ratio).

Can you explain more about how the tax shield works in this scenario?

No. It doesn't change the underlying nature of the security. It is a pure speculative instrument. Fine for small amounts for gambling but nothing more.

CSU.TO.

Updated allocation for now since last year. Not a lot has changed. I cleared out a lot of small positions to concentrate more on my best ideas. Over 2023 I added to CSU, BRK and BAC. Added new positions in FFH.TO, PARA and VIOO. Sold half my BN.

I would be interested in digging into some micro / nano caps.

The irony is too much.

This is definitely a concern since if companies win they will get too big and cut out of the index. Another option would be VTI which would let the winners ride but then you don't get a profitability filter like with the S&P indexes. The mag 7 is also a smaller proportion of VTI but still pretty significant (over 20% last time I checked). With the S&P 600 I'm aiming to keep reinvesting the dividends in my tax free account (RRSP) hoping to match the long term return of ~12% a year.

I don't have many good ideas right now unfortunately. My pick would be the S&P 600 index (through VIOO). Much lower P/E than the S&P 500 at 13.3x (as of Nov. 30) and a much higher dividend yield. Given that 30% of the S&P 500 is the magnificent seven now I think small caps could outperform over a five year time frame if they stall out for some reason.

I could be off too - I am just doing quick and dirty calculations through Questrade.

Solid year for me, didn't do much except some opportunistic buys: CSU.TO up ~50% not including dividends or spin-outs (~43% of my portfolio at the start of the year) BRK.B up ~12% (~21% of my portfolio) VOO up ~21% not including dividends (~7% of my portfolio) BN up ~16% not including dividends (~4% of my portfolio) Bought the following during the course of the year: BAC up ~19% not including dividends (~ 3% position now) VIOO up ~15% not including dividends (~ 1.5% position now) FFH.TO up ~20% (~ 3% position now) PARA down ~2% not including dividends (~ 1.5% position now) Cash is back up to ~7% position size now.

I love volatility. Wish we could get some more.

Dividends to me go against the wishes of the shareholder base that Berkshire has cultivated. Personally I doubt Greg changes this policy.

I'm still optimistic. Charlie has compared Greg to Jim Sinegal which is very high praise and Buffett has said that he understands capital allocation as well as him. Ajit will still be there in the insurance group. Todd and Ted also seem pretty impressive. Overall, however, while the structure of the company remains in place it can keep chugging along with its decentralized businesses doing their thing.

I'm up 5x on the first tranche of Constellation Software shares I acquired. Best investment however is probably Larry Cunningham's collection of essays from Warren Buffett. Nuggets of gold on every page. I wouldn't be where I am now without it. Close second would be Phil Fisher's common stocks uncommon profits.

I know right, it just seems too easy...

Agree with this. I'm not basing investment decisions on speculation about the Fed and am fully invested. Just have a feeling there will be some more volatility ahead.

Feels like everyone is jumping the gun assuming the Fed will just pivot and start cutting rates early next year. We would need to see some real deterioration in the labor market to justify lowering rates in my opinion. My gut feeling is they hold rates here longer than people would like.

Once again the younger generations get screwed.