Spooky

This is correct - once inflation starts to get higher than 4% stocks perform poorly. However, this is an interesting discussion because I think both TwoCities and Vinod are correct - the question is really one of time horizon. Bonds / bills etc. can outperform stocks in the short term but over the long term stocks will dominate. Also, each inflationary period is slightly different, it is not a one size fits all story. For instance, if you look at gold's performance during different inflationary regimes, its performance does not necessarily line up with an inflationary hedge. There is a good analysis of this in Bernstein's book rational expectations.

To the moon!

I'm taking it right now. I'll let you know at the end. So far I don't find the pre-recorded video lectures that great. I feel like all you really need is this book (which is great): https://www.amazon.ca/Value-Investing-Graham-Buffett-Beyond/dp/0470116730/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=value+investing+greenwald&qid=1680893407&sr=8-1 Luckily I already had it since it is not technically required for the course.

This environment still seems pretty bullish for hard assets like real estate in Canada. Anyone got any Canadian listed real estate companies / REITs they like? To me it seems like the Bank of Canada is stuck between a rock and a hard place, inflation could be running too hot but they can't raise rates much more without breaking the housing market which is a higher percentage of GDP than in most other places and causing severe pain to the economy. Already seems like they blinked.

There was a recent Odd lots podcast saying that the golden age of being a landlord is over as well as some articles in bloomberg about it.

That recent FT article on horse betting was super interesting... seems to me that this is the future of investing as well given that Buffett / Munger always compare investing to a pari mutuel system. I've been envisioning a market dominated by rival AI algorithms battling it out head to head (which we already have to a large degree) to see who has the better AI. Where can humans retain an edge in this world? Is it still identifying qualitative factors like management quality / brand value? Or will AI surpass even the greats like Warren? So should we all just buy the Vanguard Total index? I've also been thinking of a side project on training a Buffett Bot... anyone want to look into it with me?

Buffett definitely saw this coming. Does anyone have any guesses why he kept BAC?

me

This is an interesting question. It seems like there is so much private capital out there now making loans that can compete with the banking industry. The banks do have an advantage in a sense they can essentially create money through their access to the Fed (but I still don't fully understand how this works in practice). I also don't think the traditional banking model really works when the yield curve is inverted (i.e. borrowing short and lending long).

Beautiful Spek

More BRK more BAC.

What's the gist of Elon's position? Seems like overall the US economy itself is still very robust despite all the noise.

A lot of the greats run a concentrated portfolio (Buffett, Joel Greenblatt, Nick Sleep). It works amazing if you're right! I read the Warren Buffett Portfolio by Hagstrom on Munger's recommendation and it talks about the concentrated portfolio, would recommend.

Are there any other companies out there that are following a similar board approach as Berkshire? It is really refreshing to read what they wrote in the proxy.

Me too

Her opinion piece in the NYT was good I thought. Also you might enjoy this piece: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/predictable-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-by-joseph-e-stiglitz-2023-03

Got a source to the full article / interview?

But that's my point - what does this random person in the UK subsidiary have to do with the failure of a top 20 US bank? The UK piece is nothing.

This seems like a false narrative being pushed to advance a political agenda.

I would be careful with C - they have a similar deposit base to SVB with mainly corporate / uninsured depositors.

Too hard to predict but my hunch is they stop increasing rates from here or at least become much more cautious with rate increases. Seems like they were already fairly close to getting to the upper end of their range anyway. They need to let sentiment settle, and confidence in the banking system return. Fear and greed is at extreme pessimism. In the UK financial stability won out over inflation (although that seemed like a much more serious issue with gov bond yields spiking dramatically).

Do you still think we will get this presidential cycle effect with the GOP controlling the house and stopping the administration's agenda?

More BAC more BRK

I don't really see how the current inflationary environment is good for low income earners - let's just say if they are getting a 6% wage increase but inflation is also 6% then they are just treading water and in reality it looks like most people's wages are not keeping up with inflation, meaning they are actually losing purchasing power. My own view is that the former 0% interest rate regime was much worse for the bottom 90% of people - all it did was to inflate asset prices and benefit those that already owned assets. People with collateral could essentially borrow money for free while others are locked out of getting credit. The free money also lead to a cycle of borrowing and investing creating the everything bubble. I'm glad we are back to a more normalized interest rate environment and hope we never go back to the central bank policies of the last 13+ years. Hopefully we continue to clear excess out of the system and asset prices correct meaningfully to allow ordinary people to be able to build wealth from here.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investor-anxiety-hits-a-fever-pitch-after-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-3cbf94b7?mod=djemRTE_h Seems like a good time to buy some good companies.