Spooky

Thanks for everything Warren! It won't be the same without you and Charlie. Absolute legends.

Looks like we all have somewhat similar portfolios! CSU is about 55% of my portfolio now and BRK 21%. I've also been building up a position in FFH but that is only about 6%.

Glad I deployed some funds when I did. Already up 20% on Amex! Where we go from here who knows. Just have to be prepared for anything.

Also, who knows if the tariffs will even stick around.

Interesting chart but in this scenario I would not automatically assume rates will need to go up / stay up. The inflation is not being caused by an overheated economy so the Fed could decide to look through a spike in inflation caused by tariffs. Raising interest rates wouldn't address the source of the inflation but could hurt the demand side even more.

Thanks for sharing, very interesting. So far there has been a down trend in soft economic data which looks worrisome. US economy flirting with stagflation.

I Love it. It is hard to just sit on your ass(ets). I have been trying to follow Munger's advice but it is difficult. At this point I find myself spending less and less time on investing, I have a collection of great companies and some ETFs for diversification. There are more important things to spend time on in life!

Yes the debt level is a problem but neither party seems capable of addressing it. The biggest three areas of spending are social security, healthcare and national defense. I'm not really sure how tariffs and a reversal of globalization help address the debt problem. Would be good for the US to cut back on defence spending but that seems unlikely. Also healthcare reform also seems unlikely.

These are indeed problems. But nothing on offer from the Republicans aims to fix this other than potentially just eliminating Medicaid. Meanwhile the Senate is trying to pass a $5 trillion tax cut. But this is not the main point of my argument.

I'm sorry but these tariffs / policies won't accomplish that. The source of American greatness is its innovation. Bringing back low margin manufacturing isn't the answer.

To flip this on its head - the US has been the envy of the world and the most successful economy leaving the rest of the world in the dust. Why fix what isn't broken?

Guys, America was and is already great. It is just that the distribution of that greatness is skewed.

Hey, at least gas will be cheap!

They can't even listen to themselves with three co-CIOs! Someone went back and compiled Ray Dalio's calls and he was right about 50% of the time. Makes sense if you are just making macro bets.

Article in the FT today that Japanese institutions sold off $20B of US bonds (could be treasuries or agencies). Relative to the size of the bond markets that is pretty small.

I think Greg is alluding to the commentary that the bond market was on the verge of breaking down April 9th.

I haven't been able to find much substantive either. Just looks like a spike in yields due to mostly forced selling. There could have been a danger of a downwards spiral but Trump backed off with his tariff pause.

I personally don't think this is correct. But I am a Keynesian.

I've been noticing this as well. A number of companies are looking interesting and I've been adding to positions. Just want to wait to see if we do get to the shooting fish in a barrel stage...

It's because there is not a direct 1:1 correlation between increasing money supply and inflation. Compare and contrast the two last major market events: a) the global financial crisis and b) the Covid pandemic. Both times government borrowed heavily and stimulated but only one time did it lead to actual inflation (Covid). Also, look at the components of inflation - what is increasing in prices and what is decreasing in prices? Will those trends continue forever? Technology is a huge deflationary force which will, hopefully, lead to higher productivity and better standards of living for all.

Honestly if feels like some of the speculative excess has been cleared out lately. The S&P isn't exactly cheap but it's not crazy expensive either.

On point #1, I agree there needs to either be higher taxes or lower spending (likely a combination of both). But raising corporate tax rates is not going to be the way to do it. Just take a look at what happened in the US when the corporate tax rate was much higher - companies moving their headquarters to Canada / other jurisdictions for a lower tax burden. This is why Biden was pushing for some kind of global minimum corporate tax. Capital and corporations can generally freely move around the globe for the most favourable jurisdiction. On point #2, I agree that if America First is continued it could lead to structurally higher interest rates in the US. However, that is just one possible scenario. There are a lot of deflationary forces out in the world. If America First puts the global economy or US economy into a recession, or even a depression, then rates could be much lower. Also, look at what happened to S&P interest expenses when the Fed sharply raised rates from almost zero - most large companies had structured their debt in a way where they were pretty well insulated from rising interest expenses. The general trend in interest rates has been a downward trajectory over time.

I have a hard time believing the corporate tax rate will be significantly higher in the future. The reality is that there is a global race to the bottom to attract company headquarters to different countries so there is an incentive to lower corporate tax rates. Also, on interest rates, there is a 5000 year trend in declining interest rates in play. There is just so much capital in the world now, all looking for a home to invest.

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Would be better to listen to all voices and determine if what they are saying makes sense.