Spooky

Thanks for sharing gfp. I am pretty bullish about Berkshire's prospects for the future. The US / world is going to need significantly more energy in the future and Berkshire is well positioned in this regard. Here is a link from the IEA projecting that electricity demand from data centres worldwide is set to more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours, slightly more than the entire electricity consumption of Japan today. https://www.iea.org/news/ai-is-set-to-drive-surging-electricity-demand-from-data-centres-while-offering-the-potential-to-transform-how-the-energy-sector-works

Agreed, when I first heard the rumour I was thinking there is no way Berkshire engaged Goldman Sachs!

Agree, I am more confident concentrating in diversified conglomerates. The risk of ruin is lower. If something goes wrong in one part of the business it won't kill the company.

I would work backwards from what you think you will need for a modest retirement using the 4% rule. Then, depending on how much investing runway you have, put the money in index funds / S&P 500 that will, hopefully, compound to that amount. Then everything else you have is gravy and put it in your best ideas! My spouse also has totally separate accounts from me that just dollar cost averages through a robo advisor (Wealthsimple) so that if I royally screw up it doesn't affect this portfolio.

I understand your point and for a lot of private investments it is valid. However, a lot of private equity funds and others pretended that when the fed raised rates from near zero to close to 5% the value of their funds / investments didn't take a hit. Rates going up like that means a decrease in the PV of these assets. I'm seeing this at work now where PE funds need to sell assets to return money to their LPs but they do not want to sell at lower marks for reputational reasons so are trying to get creative with structuring even if it is just superficial so they can look good for their LPs.

This is the kind of portfolio I love to see! Not too many names and all great businesses. Just wish there was less quarterly activity haha.

This is all fiction though! It's like people in private equity claiming their investments haven't been impaired because they aren't marked to market.

Another option is to have a line of credit on the side undrawn so you have access to some firepower if we get a big decline.

Very true. A lot of this will require re-balancing though which leads to taxes / transaction costs. I'd rather have a portfolio of 6-8 excellent businesses and just sit on my ass.

It really depends on the time horizon you are looking at. If it is 30 years you are better off not sweating the draw downs and be fully invested in equities and ride things out. Owning gold itself (not gold miners) can be a decent way to reduce volatility in your portfolio if it is a concern - you just need to make sure to re balance at the right time into equities which can be tricky. Bonds can fulfill a similar function. However, what I have noticed with gold is that it is not a surefire thing. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Same with bonds. The 60/40 portfolios got crushed when the Fed raised rates sharply. Personally, I don't tend to hold much cash or bonds. I have an emergency fund which is just in money market / IB which I add to when I don't have any screaming obvious investment ideas. Sort of emulating Buffett in this regard - just hold short term government securities which gives you safety and optionality.

+1. "The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily."

Nailed it. In the short run who knows what will happen! In the long run stocks tend to go up.

Was waiting for this to happen. The "emergency" to implement the tariffs and bypass congress was blatantly unconstitutional. Let's see how this goes on appeal. Can't count on this corrupt supreme court to do the right thing.

Cubs you keep saying this but what has been achieved other than tonnes of executive orders which can be reversed by the courts / next administration? This chart from JPM is interesting:

DM me.

Maybe I missed it but I listened to a lot of Carney's speeches and I didn't hear him mention abortion or gun control once.

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-weekly-show-with-jon-stewart/id1583132133?i=1000708558383 The scale of this corruption hurts my brain.

Hilarious! The GOP tax bill floating around is a travesty. Blow out the deficit by $2.5 trillion more over the next decade for tax cuts. I would be so mad if I was a young US taxpayer that needs to shoulder the debt burden in the future.

I agree with this approach - looking at the macro environment in connection with evaluating companies. For instance, back in 2022 it was so easy to invest since people were predicting a 100% chance of a recession. The sentiment in the market was divorced from reality.

Bring back have we hit the top yet! hahaha

I'm about a third of the way through this and I'm really enjoying it. Nuggets of gold on each page! Also, it saved me from having to go back over a huge volume of annual meeting transcripts myself.

10% is higher than you think. It would put the US up there with places like Venezula and Iran.

Hear hear! Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest.

There is definitely an element of racism underlying far right immigration positions. For instance, the statement that all "immigrants from Afghanistan, Turkey or Pakistan need to go back where they came from". Or your statement about "compatible cultures" - all human beings are created with virtually identical genetics, it is just the luck of the draw where you are born. Personally I subscribe to this line from the Declaration of Independence: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

What is a "compatible culture"? White?