Xerxes

Wow so that hedge/deflation/short optionality in the 2010s was worth 0.2-0.3 book. seems there were a lot of supporters

If over the long term Ukraine was going to drift westward anyways, politically and economically (NATO or not), it doesn’t seem illogical for the Kremlin to roll the dice. It was just a matter of time. This war (despite its enormous cost), at least potentially created another “frozen conflict” to last ages, once there is an armistice in effect. And we are not even there yet. The alternative would have been dwindling into economic insignificance as Ukraine gained momentum over the next 10-15 years.

agreed. I was ok with it as well.

not even close. the last few seasons of GoT (not just the very last season) were in fact not even written yet. At some point though, they just didnt know where Martin was going. i have read all the published books. It diverged long before the last season. Also reality is that both the directors and actors had a life to get on with.

I am largely clueless on the topic. I don’t know what would help. A tragedy, that all I can say. Also it is not fair for me, living in North America, to comment on the pain of others (Palestinian and Israeli), not knowing all the nuisances. There is always more to any story.

Looks like we both understand the Mongols. That said (again) to re-emphasis that this is from historical and intellectual point of view. I wouldn’t want to be in those cities at that time where even the dogs were killed by the Mongols. But also perhaps I wouldn’t mind being a trader working my way in the Silk Roads to trade goods at the court of the great khan, once the bill was paid, and the empire built, of course. One could have re-created Goldman Sachs of that time trading silks and other goods, with tentacles stretching from Beijing to Baghdad.

Hi Dinar 100%. In fact you were one of the few who said clearly and explicitly upfront, in this thread months ago. I think though we have a gap in terms of nationalist vs religiousness tilt of the Middle East.

I mean we can debate this endlessly. I just don’t think normal folks from pre 20th century, unless they were in position of power, they were going to do a deep dive on why that race or people attacked me. A Congolese gentleman who had his arms chopped off by a white Belgian gentleman is not going to grow his missing arm much faster if the intent was different. As to the comment about Genghiz Khan, even now people misunderstand the Mongols. Extermination was strategy to them, means to achieve their aim. And not extermination for the sake of extermination. So even your own comment where you are trying to argue to virtue of analyzing the intent, has the wrong example. If I am reading your comment correctly.

@73 Reds @cubsfan thank you gents. You must forgive Xerxes’ sarcasm. it is early in the week.

what Dinar is referring to is the expansionary Islam under the Unmayyed, the subsequent caliphate all the way to the Ottoman era. He is not wrong. In fact, we (Persians) were victims of the Arabs. but then again others were victims of Persians under Sassanids and Achemedians (pre-Islamic) and many centuries thereafter. So, Persians, cannot play the victim card when the Arabs came after them. Zoroastrian Persian force converted Christian Armeanians etc. That is just part of history. My Zoroastrian ancestors were not cute bunnies. They just happened to succumb to a bigger foe, Islam. Good news is that our new year celebration is still based on the Zoroastrian tradition. But how is any of this any different than the expansionary Spanish, or the Muscovites etc. or the Portuguese. Or any other form of colonialism from wherever. Sure those were perhaps not driven explicitly by the Bible or other holy books, but does that matter to the victims ? Going back to Islamic world, Dinar view is not the fully correct. I can point to many wars of expansion that were 100% nationalist-based and nothing to do with spread of Islam. Easy example is Nadir Shah, the Timurids, etc. Even in today’ modern Iran, the slogans maybe religious base, but it is NOT a coincidence that the Iranians are fighting in Mesopotamia and Levant for influence, as they did against the Ottomans and as they did against the Romans. That goes back to their imperial past, just happens to be repackaged differently, given the current supply/demand dynamics of useful idiots. On Israel, I think almost all the wars between Israel and its Arabs foes were and are nationalistic since 1948. And only in very recently, it has taken a religious tilt with radical Islam, but then again not much different than Israel itself that moved away from its secularism into whatever it is trying to be. When I hear the Israeli ministers speak (that view pre-date 10/07), it is almost like hearing islamists speaking. As to who has the claim on Israel/Palestine, is whoever was living there. Whether it was a formal “nation” before or not, it doesn’t matter to the person thinking that they lost something. I don’t know Torah, so cannot really comment on your last comment. In fact cannot really comment on Bible or Koran either. Life is more interesting than spending time reading boring religious books. That said no offence to anyone who reads for their reasons, be it spiritual or historical.

Wow. Silly me. And I thought the multi-decade Israeli-Palestinian conflict was nationalistic one. Not a religious one. Learning new things from my fellow North Americans. If Hamas was a secular entity, would their terrorism be considered less terroristy ? I don’t think so. Was PLO secular or religious … Half dozen posts today on this thread, and no one dared to call out the current Israeli government what it really is. A racist extremist government. And not much different than most other governments in the Middle East, except that it can be democratically removed. But the fact your North American “programming” prevents you from acknowledging that, speaks volume and undermined most of your collective arguments. note: I said current. So no one gets excited and accuse me of being against Israel. As they had governments before that were not ran by racists idiots and morons. Warmongering, I can tolerate, racism. No.

Zelenskyy rolled in the dice and bought some thinly-traded call options, and it went straight in-the-money Expiry date 2025 with upside being juicy enough to make posts on REDDIT on the unrealized gains ..... but far far from enough for being set for retirement.

This may or may not have been posted. QUARTERLY REPORT #5: PERIOD TO 31 MARCH 2024 - Google Search East 72 Dynasty Trust QUARTERLY REPORT #5: PERIOD TO 31 MARCH 2024 We added new holdings in Fairfax Financial Holdings, a Canadian reinsurance company after an appallingly argued short-sale thesis saw the shares sold off sharply for less than a week in February. We also added Occidental Petroleum, the oil business boasting Berkshire Hathaway as its largest and effective “controlling” shareholder, but more pointedly exercising a capital management philosophy of some note. //// Monopolistic but regulated high margin volume growth. A new expanding airport. Bangalore If you sat down to conceive of the perfect investment, how might it look? One interpretation would be that it has monopolistic attributes – the famous “only bridge into town.17 ” But further imagine your “unregulated” toll bridge was located in an area of rapid population growth of highly qualified people - an area of high tech and IT manufacturing. So your toll bridge is going to get ever more use - so you can build a second one next to it. Moreover, you could essentially build your monopoly “bridges” from the ground up with few (if any) legacy issues, using the latest technology to service an industry which cannot function effectively without the latest know-how. Unfortunately, it’s only a partial reality, but one which is priced at a discount to legacy assets in the same sector. Because this is not an unregulated toll bridge. It’s rather that the toll is actually regulated but you can keep your customers on the bridge for very lengthy periods and they have to spend money at your shops. BIAL is Bangalore International Airport Limited, operator of Kempegowda18 International Airport located 40km from the centre of Bengaluru, India’s third largest – but fastest growing city – with 14million people in its metro area, up from 6.5million twenty years ago. BIAL has a monopoly within a 150km radius until 2033 and has a 30 year concession with a further 30year option to operate Kempegowda. The airport has an estimated catchment area of 250million people (it’s worth noting when you read the next section, how long any competing facility may take to be planned, let alone built when the monopoly expires). The dynamics and analysis of Kempegowda are identical to most other “greenfield” airports – gradual expansion and use of adjoining vacant land to add non-airport revenues over time. It’s a model seen elsewhere around the world in recent years, but for one exception: the numbers here are far bigger than anywhere outside the Middle East – and it is predominantly a domestic operation for the time being. Dare to dream of the word “hub” sometime down the track. BIAL is now 13% owned by each of Karnataka State Industrial & Infrastructure Development Corporation and Airports Authority of India 13% - two Government instrumentalities. The remaining 74% is 20% owned by Siemens Project Ventures – part of the €134billion market cap Siemens AG – and through two entities by Fairfax India Holdings19 (FIH-U.TO20). ////

it is an embarrassment, irritant, and perhaps even a reason for MoD to do unplanned “pull” of its veteran troops in the Donbas and weaken the main front … but nothing that “will bring the Kremlin to the negotiating table” I was listening to my weekly pod, I think they said it well: this is one of those cases where the strategy of why Ukrainian did what they did is written after the outcome.

Defense business is tough when your main customer imposes fixed-cost contracts. Ain’t that a bitc$ Perhaps there is a market share grab opportunity here … if only a defense prime with vast resources could lowball and grab all of defense opportunities. All that red ink was supposed to be subsidized by 737MAX printing press.

What a champ !! we need more of these guys and less of racists a-holes

But this is not show business Both the recent incursion into the thinly protected open swaths of Russia with experienced Ukrainian troops … and its campaign in the Black Sea are means to wage asymmetrical war, because it cannot go head to head against the entrenched positions in the Donbas.

I draw a distinction between Z and B. it is not news to this forum, of what I think of B. He and his cronies and their Hamas counterparts are nothing but first class racist a-holes. B is desperate to remain PM but appears to have a strong hold on the US Congress. My view of B pre-dates 10/07. That said on Z, I have nothing but admiration. He has his issues, but he gets a pass from me. What they do have in common is that both of their countries were savagely attacked.

Word on the street is that, Buffett’ Apple stake is now a super smooth nice round number rivalling Coka Cola ‘ roundness. I suppose Tim Cook wouldn’t want to mess that up by doing share-split with odd numbers, going forward.

Yeap. it is war. He is got to do what he is got to do.

Looks like I was wrong and way off, the culprit was not Poland. According to WSJ, it was the ex-Ukrainian general, and few drunken men that decided to blow up Nord Stream. Read “ex-Ukrainian general, and few drunken men” ==> unsanctioned lose canons and mavericks

Thanks. Broadly speaking you are definitely not replicating the main indices. Which is a good thing ! I think I only recognize Visa, MSCI and Coupang.

if you can share, is there any major holdings you hold for +5 years ? or is it mostly options/trade that works for you.

thank you. I find Norway’ way to deal with the resource curse fascinating. I don’t know if Alberta ever setup something similar. Or maybe it was too much of a socialist idea. Sovereign funds are fascinating. Then you have cases like PIF where the government “accelerate contribute” by moving assets from Aramco to PIF. different thread I suppose

i just learned that I can get the transcript, from the Podcast App. I am ok with the first paragraph. I am just not sure the consequence of it (lower Yen, therefore a boon for exporters) has anything to do with its sudden demise. From what I know, the unwind has always happened (caused) because of a crash in Wall Street.