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Xerxes

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Everything posted by Xerxes

  1. I was there for two full days. Stayed in KLCC. At the Trader’ Hotel. Was so proud to see the high rise outside my hotel window was that of an Exxon building. I actually spend an almost full day going south toward Malacca. A must see for anyone who likes history. spend the other day with Batu Caves, and markets. All of which are far away from my hotel. It is good idea to hire a driver or use public transport if you have time. In the same day, I went to other Hindu, Muslim and Chinese places of worship. I found Malaysia fascinating. Three distinct groups of people co exist and you see that in the very fabric of their society. There are multiple dynasties reigning over different regions, and one which becomes the federal sultan as a reigning “federal” monarch on a rotating basis.
  2. wow. Did MuddyWaters helped FFH by establishing a technical floor for a previously “overbought” stock !!
  3. Great episode with The Chuck. This dude is awesome. Covers Mastercard, how he and his team don’t want to talk about Visa and MC enduring advantage (heh?), O’Reilly, 100x bagger book, some folky talk on American Tower, ROIC just an all in great episode.
  4. Yeap Tucker is there for Tucker. Exclusive interview.
  5. Few years I complained about FFH not being on NYSE for that added liquidity etc looks like not being there may actually helping them
  6. That is quite a coup for Tucker ! Man the first half hour Putin is going over a 1,000 year history.
  7. Who knows maybe the “attention” that this thing generates may end up helping in the medium term, bringing it a premium
  8. Why is Becky on CNBC making the comment that “well they survive the last bear attack”. it is not about survival or not. It is about the merit of the last bear attack.
  9. I don’t know about US Civil War. Never read anything on it. But the counter example to Korea would be LBJ running the war from the White House and directing the bombing campaign in the North. While hampering Westermoreland, who operated in South Vietnam as his sandbox. The fear of the Red volunteers crossing into North Vietnam was real and influenced by MacArthur running wild and what happened on the Yalu river in the previous war. Nevermind that North Vietnamese were not North Korean and the former not exactly on the same page with Peking, neither historically nor ideologically. Yes civilian control of the military is a good thing. But when personal politics start to hamper national security that is a cause for concern. in my view, Ukraine will be going through Taiwanization stage (dictatorship, autocracy) before it become fully democratic. Everyone knows about Taiwan today but not the Taiwan from 60s and 70s. There was a prerequisite and price to pay.
  10. I am still dragging myself kicking and screaming through The Pacific
  11. The fracture has been months in the making. The article that the good general wrote on The Economist last year made the spat public. Looks like Zelenskyy is looking for his own version of Kietel and Jodl. The “yes men” High Command. In some ways the very nature of the spat reflect that the Ukrainian government is not any danger of being overrun and overthrown by Russian forces nor more Ukrainian territory is in danger of being overrun. Unity fractures and old politics surfaces when imminent danger is no longer there. Read: stalemate, however you define it.
  12. Not exactly the same market, nor growth rate nor maturity. But there was a passage on The Economist few back years back about Gatwick airport as it changed hands between GIP and a French infrastructure investor. From 2018 2023: “London Gatwick Airport has served 32.8 million passengers in the fiscal year ending 31 December 2022, achieving 70.4% of 2019 traffic. The passenger numbers increased by over 420%, from 6.3 million in 2021” still at 70% of pre Covid traffic !
  13. I don’t know if this is a 30 year portfolio for Altimeter. But they tend to keep for long haul.
  14. ^^^ that they knew there billions to be booked when the short was going to be covered, and I don’t think that was in stock (I didn’t know FFH back then but that is my historical understanding) reverse of what Goldman did. Made fees by selling the long-bet products, then went short with its own capital.
  15. It would be interesting to know the history behind the TRS. What went through their minds as they contemplated the move in 2020-21. It is not something they came up just at the moment. It makes you wonder if it is something they wished they put in place back 2009-10.
  16. we should not compare wars of 60 years ago to today’ realities. Hitler did not build the German war machine on its own. He inherited a highly industrial juggernaut of a nation steeped in military traditions. Hitler or not, the Prussian military caste would have had its revenge. It just got far worse than needs be with the madman at the helm. it is never all about the effectiveness. Those 190,000 troops occupy perhaps a fifth of Ukraine, but had an outsize role in reshaping the geopolitics for years to come, regardless of their effectiveness to take Kiev or not in early 2022. A lot of people on this board and Twitter enjoy making scorecard of things Russia lost by going in Ukraine in 2022. All of which are quantifiable and probably correct and accurate. But there is a key point. As that is a very Western point of view as to what is important. Geopolitics is not about running NPVs. The real question to ask is: Does Kremlin prefer its situation in 2024 or in pre-2022 era ? Understanding that Kremlin does not work for the Russian people. It never did in recent times.
  17. Article 5 is only good if it is reinforced. Technically speaking interference in U.S. election could be an act of war, technically speaking foreign agents conducting assassination on Canadian soil targeting Canadian citizens could be an act of war. Both of which ought to trigger Article 5. So it comes down to interpretation, what is the right response etc. and even then NATO members need to decide to participate. If Turkey and Greece get into an armed conflict against each other, does that trigger Article 5 on both sides. The whole thing is a bit silly. So it comes down to signaling, first and foremost. I personally don’t Finland has anything to fear. And not because of Russian lack of capabilities. Ukraine is different.
  18. legendary indeed. so was British betrayal of that heroic resistance against the Stalinist colossus, the moment Germany invaded the Soviet Union
  19. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-acquirers-podcast/id1454112457?i=1000642465517
  20. The geography of south east Asia is not easy navigate. Especially Indonesia. There is a local network on each island to overcome. Sure Grab or whoever could be easily de-throned in Singapore. But ..
  21. Funny how for years Sokol and Bing hammered the previous Seaspan’s management for putting the company in such a position that end up of it not being able to take advantage of market dislocation. Yet for whatever reason, fixing their debt exposure to interest rate movement didn’t cross their mind. Notwithstanding the fact that their biggest shareholder was making a big bet exactly on that happening.
  22. I use to love that documentary type. I got into it when watching the “Meltdown” on PBS Frontline. Or that episode about MerrilLynch merger with BoA. That was just great TV. PBS Frontline is/was just awesome. but being a traditionalist I never got into this “new age” Netflixization of documentaries. I watched the one about Carl Icahn on HBO. It was ok. Maybe because I watch/listen to so much business/economics TV:podcast that I find documentaries not that interesting.
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