Castanza

Yeah the issue is timing with this one…recurring revenue is great but it’s tough to see near term significant new pool builds. Completely anecdotal but where I live in PA, I’ve had two friends with pools permanently close them in due to repair costs. I’ve also seen some quotes for new installs and they aren’t for the faint of heart. Anecdotes are often not a good basis for investment though…. @Gregmal initially put this on the map for me a few years back and @gfp highlighting the insider buys the past two weeks. Going to check out some earnings calls.

Good luck with that. Has it dawned on you that all three of those categories are heavily dependent on politics. I just find it ironic that you pound the table about how bad the government is doing and the coming financial Armageddon that’s going to bring us back to a barter system, yet all of your asset classes can rerate with the stroke of a pen by some political demagogue or tank because some theocratic dictator decides to take out a pipeline halfway across the world.

How are you thinking about POOL? Seems very heavily dependent upon a solid economy no? Rates coupled with costs don't look favorable.

@Blake Hampton We reiterate....what are you positions and what are your returns.....If you're going to talk the talk, let's see if you walk the walk...

Holding my nose: AJG, BRO, RYAN

“Decade or two” What really would be foolish is sitting out half your investing career because of some personal hunch. You’re right that the future doesn’t look like the past. History shows us that generally things improve… Sometimes I think you’re allergic to making money…

FRFHF, RYAN, AJG

Bruh… c’mon lol

Ehhh Real leaders build bridges and lead by example. Trump is pushing constitutional boundaries and burning bridges. Trump embodies the Roman approach “Make it a desert and call it peace.”

It’s a fair point. We often get too caught up in the idea that we need a perfect solution that accounts for all potential outcomes. The Iran issue was one that got passed on since the 70s and well someone saw an opportunity and took action. I do have my doubts on the longterm outlook of this approach and really don’t want to see American troops back on the ground in the Middle East, but there really wasn’t much of a choice. You can’t let a terrorist regime get anything close to nuclear weapons. Even people like Sam Harris are championing this while also showing concern for the off ramp. Short term this negates any nuclear threats from Iran (although I wouldn’t be surprised to see an uptick in terrorist attacks) and checks Chinas global influence. Contrary to what all of these limp dick western societies want to admit, global power and influence still matters. You are either the big fish in the pond, or your next weeks meal. That’s life…learn to live with it. No amount of waving the Palestinian flag on US campuses is going to bring everyone together singing campfire songs. Trump might not be the right guy for the job and might make a big mess of this (I tend to lean that way), but he’s good at one thing…lighting a fire under the ass of others and forcing them to make decisions. Good or bad he’s changing the never ending global stalemate of politics.

I think people are talking past each other here. There is no debate that at any moment since 1979, 1983, 1989 and all through the GWOT. taking out Iranian leadership would have been a good thing. At the end of the day Iran is a true Jihadist Regime and allowing them to get anywhere within the same proximity of nuclear weapons is a mistake. Iran is not Russia…it’s not even in the same universe. I also think anyone saying the “agreements” this or that should have stood are fooling themselves. There are no agreements with Jihadist Regimes….i don’t care what Obama, Biden, or anyone claimed to have…NOBODY had one. So let’s all agree on that….the engine of terrorism that is Iran leadership had this coming. however… My concern is Trump blindsided the American people with this. There is no clear plan, Congress did not vote on this, we did not include other ally nations and there is no clear end goal or off ramp. Trump lacks empathy and morals when it comes to this and I doubt he actually cares for the people of Iran wanting change. I can see him seizing a moment a month from now and calling it a victory and pulling out. The situation in Iran could very likely require longterm oversight and I wish there was more thought put into this.

FRFHF, NTDOY, HEI/A, MELI

Sometimes it's better to just do nothing.

Vance is too ideologically driven. He subscribes to and cites some very questionable philosophies and philosophers. He's smarter and more organized than Trump but is also more easily influenced. Trump is not ideologically driven (a positive). Rubio is a veteran politician. He only looks sharp because he's on a team of amateurs....I'd like to see some new entrants from both parties.

WMD = Iranian Leadership Are people incapable of viewing events on their own? As mentioned earlier in this thread...I don't support Trump...I'm not a fan of prolonged conflict...But I don't think there is anyone who can honestly say the death of the Iranian Regime was a net negative...The people seemed hungry for change with hope of democracy...time will tell... Trump may not be your guy and you may think he is doing more harm long term to the American and NATO global standing (I tend to agree)...but one things remains true is that global influence of dictatorial regimes has and is growing rapidly and America cannot stand still. Too many people think wishing away the problems that exist in the real world will work simply because there is no perfect leader and no perfect solution. At some point you'll end up between a rock and a hard place. My hope is we can salvage American ideals and find some cohesion on the home front while causing enough disruption globally to adversaries (China) to provide America some path back to positive status among allies by the time Trump leaves office. Trump is the absolute worst guy for the job in almost all aspects of POTUS, but maybe and just maybe he can get a few things right that others cannot. Sometimes it's hard to know the right choice in the moment.

Yeah but permission is still being granted by your company no? Not any different that a company utilizing Splunk or some other internal tool. The gap is the public vs private data extraction and how much access new market entrants will be granted. Data ownership is still the keystone to the future. It's like owning a Ferrari and not having access to a local race track to really open the throttle up. I think encumbant SaaS companies will still have the advantage here since they already own the relationships. No wise company is going to open up their company proprietary data to some 3rd party unproven AI agent that could expose their data to their competitors.

Remember that time Bush took AF1 to the Little League World Series to greet the kids in person? Man, what a mother f%&*er....

I’m not following you here. It was your example lol Perhaps we are not understanding each others points?

A perfect problem for AI to solve no doubt; but it's a narrowly focused tool took a master class team and the worlds best AI lab to build. It is still a "brute-force" like model that utilizes additional data structures and approaches to basically pull forward prediction models to be as accurate as possible BEFORE a human has to interpret them. For all intended purposes this shows the best use cases and limitations of current AI models and doesn't move us any close to AGI. But AGI is not needed to change the world

Has there been any significant “move 37” like occurrences since? I was reading through the AlphaEvolve one roughly 8 months ago and it’s more of the algo making an improvement with already known algorithms.so quite good at optimizing workflows but not creating or deriving new solutions. So far it seems the upper limits are getting to solutions with known algorithms at much faster speeds than humans (think 1000 years of effort). So extremely important and a huge breakthrough for sure. But not true AGI. That’s just what I’m aware of, very possibly more I haven’t read up on. What are you looking at?

I think this line of thinking is oversimplifying things from many different angles and skips over a lot of speed bumps you could incur along the way. To me if you're paranoid about AI eating the world and your livelihood it's probably better to sure up your personal finances to remain flexible. Flexibility is leverage in tough times. Being upside down on "cheap land" with property values at all time highs when AI comes for your job doesn't sound particularly enjoyable. You'll end up dumping that land for a fraction of what you paid because you corn didn't grow and it turns out your wife doesn't like playing Little House on the Prairie.

It's truly amazing....with the way the market is reacting both positively and negatively to AI; one would think P!=NP was solved...So far AI bridges the time gap to discovery utilizing known methods. This is a massive advantage that seems (or sounds) like magic to many. But Humans are still at the helm when it comes to chosen direction. Rules are meant to be broken no doubt (Turing test); however it seems most experts (not PR hacks) agree that there is a handful of significant breakthroughs needed in the field to bridge the divide between reality and theory. IF (big IF) that day ever comes, who knows what the world will look like.... The real question imo is how far can we get with the current approach? I think we will be surprised on both the upside and downside.

Agree 100% AI is probabilistic Traditional programming is deterministic An important distinction for people to remember when thinking about this topic.

What were the results? I also don't think this forum is "pricing-in" anything....Well maybe @gfp

Real results could vary widely though...I ignored sell side and position sizing etc. Plus the pricing was pulled through excel so some international stocks were not found etc. But I'd wager it's within ~2-5% of reality.