Castanza

Boggles my mind… @Blake Hampton What’s the end result? You own t-Bills in a worthless currency. You own a piece of real estate that you can’t afford the taxes on (bye bye), but hey you own shares of OXY…you planning to take physical delivery of oil?

You can’t negotiate with terrorists. That’s why this half baked plan is on the verge of dragging the US into a forever war and permanently altering the SOH. There is going to be negative longterm consequences for the US and allied nations. I think you’re underestimating the damage this approach could create if the needle is not threaded. Iran and the regime have assets in other parts of the world. The issues with terrorism is small acts can create big problems. Hence the equation learned over 20 years in the Middle East was 1 dead terrorist = 2 new terrorists. Let’s also not forget that this is a completely unconstitutional war. And as of today is sounds like Trump is going to have to ask Congress for a whole bunch of money.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-forever-mission-us-colonel-on-trumps-strait/id1712903296?i=1000756812618 This has been a solid podcast/news resource for the Iran Conflict. It’s way too early to call anything a success imo and I think there will be quite a bit of volatility moving forward. I agree with the guest of this episode that sending the 2000 strong Marine force into the SOH is a big risk and way more messy than most think. This goes served under Petraeus and seems to believe it’s a very messy situation just to get the marines into the SOH. I’m not a military expert, but have always been a Shakespeare fan and the phrase “Tempt not a desperate man” rings in the back of my mind. Can’t imagine the fallout if Iran killed any significant amount of these Marines in route to the SOH.

All in jest for sure, and Blake is too smart to be this dumb (my opinion). But the framework which he views the world of finance reminds me of my depression era grandparents. If I remember correctly he does something finance related with the govt. To each their own, but opportunity cost is a real thing. I mean just looking at SPY vs OXY the last 3-4 years and you’ve got to think to yourself…”maybe I should dip my toes in the market a little.”

it’s not that you won’t convince me. It’s that I find it irrelevant to your investing. I’ll take my chances owning cash producing assets than sitting in the sidelines pegged to inflation waiting for some market crash.

Blake: "The US is about to meet its demise due to financial mismanagement. Biggest crash in history with massive inflation coming" also Blake: "I want to tie the majority of my net worth to the most politically influenced asset classes and non-inflation protected govt backed assets" Make it make sense to me?

Blake, you are on here with access to an endless feed of quality investment analysis and choose do nothing but discuss "The Big One" just around the corner and how Oil, real estate and bonds are the only safe asset classes for the next 20 years. Now you're lecturing everyone on news sources and how they need to "self curate" like yourself to "avoid bias or unactual information". Sounds like you've got it all figured out! Edit: I am of average intelligence and probably on the lower end of the totem pole when it comes to investment/financial analysis on this forum. But my moto has been K.I.S.S and sift through the ideas aggregated here then do some personal DD and make a decision. Politics is fun....but don't let it lead to paralysis on the investment side.

Now do post enlightenment…

Reduced pretty much all of my positive positions in my IRAs to build up the war chest. Sitting at about ~33% cash now and will probably try to get closer to 40% if the opportunity presents itself. My gut has always served me well when we get major global events.

@ourkid8 The picture you try to paint of Iran is no different than what Kim Jong Dipshit does whenever he lets media see "the real North Korea"....It's ridiculous. Nobody on here is buying your bullshit. 20% of Iranians tops support the regime. Iran has been one of if not the largest sponsors of terrorist for the last 50 years. It's a nation run by a theocratic death cult. You can argue all you want or provide whatever curated videos you have. There are enough websites out there to see the types of things that go on inside the country. Iran's regime is not politically driven and it's not economically driven. It's center mass embodies the garbage the rest of the world has to choke on from time to time. They live and project exactly what they believe....

What's the thought on owning preferred vs common now that the GSEs have been profitable and are well capitalized? A lot has changed since last time I followed this (2020).

New: AMRZ, OTIS, BLDR Add: small add CNI

CPRT, AJG, RYAN

Not Bibi ... but Miriam Adelson.... Follow the money....Almost everything Trump has done in the Middle East specific to Israel has been pushed by the Adelsons... - Hannukah is the White House - Moving he Embassy to Jerusalem (the Adelsons bought the old Embassy) - Recognizing the Golan Heights - Lobbied for Trump to kill the Iran Nuclear Agreement Taking down the Iranian regime makes sense.....but only with a coordinated plan in place....current events make no sense. For example...what is the plan to get any of the enriched uranium out of the country? How will the people rise up if unsupported...they have no means...

@Parsad Should try to get Horne on here for an AMA

The two ships used for mine detection were decommissioned by Trump. Now the US is stuck trying to retrofit much larger ships that are not a good fit for the job. There is no way to get regime change without a significant boots on the ground when you have 90m citizens. This situation could (and is) getting out of hand. This whole move fast break things approach is likely to bite the US in the ass big time and make the situation worse for the Iranian people. There isn’t an expert out there who think support for the current regime by the Iranian people was north of ~10%….but how exactly will the people rise up? They have no means and barely even have fresh water. They have no weapons, no underground funding, gorilla groups, etc. time will tell but I see no way this is a “win.” For the US and allies. We would have been better finding another solution to the weapons grade uranium. Israel certainly is clever enough…

@ourkid8 A test… Scenario One: Iran has nuclear weapons. Israel disbands its military and sells all of their offensive and defensive equipment. They say they will exist peacefully hence forth. It is guaranteed there will be peace from Israel hence forth. Does Iran take advantage of this situation or do they choose to coexist? Scenario Two: Israel has nuclear weapons. Iran says they will disband their military, stop the funding of terrorist groups, sell all of their offensive and defensive equipment. Democratically elect new leadership. Assume there is 100% chance peace is carried forward from Iran hence forth. Does Israel take advantage of this situation or do they choose to coexist? edit: I also think your claim of citizens supporting the regime is bullshit. Basij forces are actively telling citizens if they go to the streets they will be killed. Israel is actively starting covert operations to take out lower level leadership.

You’ve lost me on this view. The regime in charge of Iran is magnitudes different than anywhere else. It is a Theocratic Terrorist Regime. Strong independent governments don’t rule and subject their citizens with fear and violence. I agree that Iran has a very rich and diverse cultural history. They are vastly different than Afghanistan and Iraq. We definitely equate them all the same in the West simply due to a lack of education on the subject and probably some personal bias. I think the cultural history of the Iranian people can be preserved and separate from the current regimes approach. The people of Iran deserve better leadership. I also agree that I’m not a fan of this approach by the US and Israel approach. It’s haphazard and unlikely to succeed in a way that benefits the people.

@ourkid8 Genuine question. Are you in support of the Iranian theocratic regime or the civilians being oppressed by the regime? I cannot tell by your responses. I gather you are not in favor of the approach the US and Israel are taking. But that still begs the question….

HEI/A

CPRT

Anything involving heavy equipment seems to have gone through the roof post covid. At some point you think the scales will tip...There is only so many people who want to put 30-50% of their home value into a new pool.