Castanza

Might not have been valuation that spooked him. Perhaps the manufacturing aspect alone was enough to reduce. AAPL valuation doesn't look bad imo. Service Revenue grew 14% and now makes up 30% of total rev. I think that's a really good sign of things to come and AAPL moving away from complete reliance on HW. Especially with the new AI platform coming on the next rendition of iPhone (which will require 15+ model year to use), I think this upgrade cycle might be pretty solid. Currently down (1%) this last Q which is a nothing burger imo. R&D only grew 3% which is very conservative as well; especially when compared to peers GOOG, MSFT, META etc.

My point (Scotts point) is the debt even at 120% of GDP is more easily serviced now than it was at 40% of GDP in the 80's primarily because of interest rates. I think the govt has a lot of bloat and needs to be cutting expenditures greatly (mainly because interest payments are about to outpace tax revenue). But if you look at the numbers it's not as "bad" as one would think; but definitely needs to be kept in check as you said. Some other charts further down in Scotts post are great. #8 in particular really highlights US dominance in global finance. I have shared similar view as Blake Hampton in the past and probably still do share many similar views. Remember I am personally a very debt adverse person and it definitely bleeds over into my political views as well. However I recognize there is difference (to a degree) in managing a State and managing a household; but that things can sour quickly as well. Ignore the doomsayers and ignore the overly optimistic.

US debt burden is lower now than it was in the 80s when debt made up 40% of GDP. http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/07/how-bad-is-fiscal-policy.html?m=1

Honestly AMZN, AAPL, MSFT and GOOGL all looked pretty damn good. GOOGL and META are the cheapest but I’m looking at AMZN as well tbh. I was a META hater back when the metaverse spend started (and they are still spending (~4b) with Reality Labs) and it was first cheap (oof). Capex guidance is definitely the negative theme for them all and seems to be the primary reason for the pullback. Maybe this lawsuit will cause some more sell off. AMZN (34x) - Cloud rev +19% (accelerating) - Operating income up +91% (2nd largest ever) - Operating cash flow up +75% - Retail grew +9% slightly under expectations. MSFT (30x) - Azure +29% (missed by 2% due to softness in EU) - Overall rev +15% - Xbox/gaming +61% - Cloud+Office products +21% - Net Income +10% GOOGL (20x) - Cloud) +14% (cloud is profitable now) - Search +14% - YT +13% (under expectations but Operating margins up 3%) META (24x) - best top and bottom - Sales up 22% - DAU up +7% - Ad Impressions +10% - Avg price per ad +10% AAPL(31x) - Services +14% and is 30% of rev - iPhone refresh coming this fall that has the new Apple intelligence. - Capex spending under control compared to peers +3% - iPhone sales (1%)

The last year I’ve really whittled down my holdings. I’m about ~20% cash right now and have a few odds and ends positions/ trackers left in things like FRP, DEO, some HA puts from beginning of the year, …and the stubborn SBERCY In order of size MSFT RTX FRFHF BRK.b JOE GOOGL AIV NNI OXY CPRT WFG

GOOGL roughly ~20x is good enough for me. Last time I added was March 2022 at a very similar valuation. FRFHF

Yeah and Uncle Rico could have won States if coach put him in…. There are those that do and those that say they could. You’re talking a different league and different amounts of skin in the game

Every year I appreciate this clip of Buffett more and more https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/2016/02/29/buffett-name-me-one-super-wealthy-economist.html edit: Also should note market returns if you were to only buy at market peaks. (long-term view is best with the majority of your capital.)

I've been able to buy. Picked up some OXY and FRFHF edit: Seems I got in before the outage. Can't log in anymore. Lovely...This happens far too often on big trading days. Downright criminal imo.

Don’t worry, there’s probably some reporter out there waiting to pull the lid off a crock of shit stewing away on the back burner at C.

Rules are meant to be broken

Erie Insurance is great if you're in the below states. I had my truck totaled last November and had nothing but a good experience with Erie. They got me a price in a week, I asked for a bit more, they agreed and wrote a check a few days later. My premiums went up $0 dollars including after getting a replacement vehicle which was newer. Another guy who was also a victim in the accident was in contact with me and State Farm(his coverage) barely had the ball rolling for him before I got my check. Illinois Indiana Kentucky Maryland New York North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Tennessee Virginia Washington, D.C. West Virginia Wisconsin

1. Increased profits does not always make it down to the shareholders. 2. Cost cutting doesn’t necessarily mean lower prices. In today’s environment it seems the exact opposite. Why would a company lower prices and their profits when consumers are willing to pay? 3. I think it will be more of a shift and pretty gradual. There are lots of jobs that could be replaced now, but aren’t. Like most tech revolutions the end result has almost always been more jobs and more work. Look at the cotton gin. It increased slavery and did the complete opposite of what Jefferson thought (small self sustained families). Look at the steam engine. Early 1800s US was a wild wild place. There were cults, religion and groups of people who were “worshiping” machinery. Jill Lepore has a few good chapters on this in her book “These Truths” a history of America. With a read. End of the day I think we nix some unproductive paper pushing jobs, but ultimately increase overall workforce as AI will drive new sectors and innovation keeping demand ahead of educated workforce. Gotta get that education part right though.

Are the voting demographics of the Morena party really the uneducated masses? South of the border politics is an interesting animal if so as that's not typically the norm for far left leaning parties.

PEP getting close too other category JNJ and PFE also trading at/near 52 week lows

I've said before, but I trade about ~50%-75% of my PCYO position on this erratic EKG

Relatively small position for me, but the main negativity imo is focused on time vs thesis. The company is still solid and management have been conservative capital allocators. The main issue is they are almost too conservative. That's why this is a coffee can stock and won't ever be a massive position for me, but i like to add some when it gets sub $9. Things to look for are: - Movement on commercial development - Completion of their current projects - Dividend or share buybacks Thesis Change (would be) - Management seeks further land acquisitions prior to finishing their current obligations and building out commercial.

DEO, JOE, PCYO, STR

What do you read and what do you suggest others read for accurate, truthful information?

https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/?_sm_au_=iVVJLSNRJMN6NWWr Some interesting charts from Scott Grannis

$WFG been dropping as well

JOE and begrudgingly a small amount of PCYO

Lol damn that opening was funny….down a couple hundred mil and now a worry in the world. The whole thing sounded more like he was trying to remove himself from all responsibility of others actions and at the same time layout the Cohen thesis which is frankly a joke.

They should offer shares till they have enough to buy PARA

All election years/campaign seasons too