Castanza

Desire and ability are two vastly different things. This is a spun narrative being pushed by a few talking heads; but it completely ignores the reality of the situation and what occurred. Iran remains in the hot seat. They’re going to end up getting the post WWII Japan treatment.

I'm not saying you're wrong....there was actionable evidence during 08 as well right? Hookers buying 5 houses etc.....But young men (especially Marines) will say about anything to a hooker if they get to advance a base or two...Some of those tinfoil hat wearing degenerates we see in D.C. also have been correct on a few things.... I will say, I'd probably trust a hooker more than Trump right now. Looks like the deadline was just bumped to 17:00 instead of 20:00...I think Trump wants to TACO here, but his personality might get the best of him. Might see some fireworks early...

How wild is it that we have betting markets for global conflicts....

We criticize, yet benefit.

... don't forget Instagram Hookers and reddit memes

My two year old son has higher standards than you both. I’d just appreciate it if you would stop clogging up the thread with childish memes. Act like an adult.

Are you drunk? Relax with the high school Reddit memes…ffs

I almost purchased a 91' Mercedes 300D Turbo diesel a few years back....I often think of that swing and miss on my part...beautiful machines

Tantamount to making an investment decision based on one Q of TTM data….

LOL Trump a Christian?! He’s a PR swindler at best.

The pendulum always swings…

Not a very constructive comment John. In fact you completely ignore the mental meltdown every NATO member is having because Trump said lace up your boots and get your own oil. I’ve been critical of this Iran conflict and how Trump went about it “without ally coordination” or Congressional approval. I also didn’t vote for Trump. Well it seems many of the Canadian members on this board wish to have nothing to do with USA moving forward implying there is more to the kissing and hugging than you may think. I think when Trump is gone the West will reunite and be stronger moving forward for the next 50 years. There isnt an option tbh.

NATO has been mostly a paper tiger since the end of the Cold War anyways…Nuclear deterrence has been more important. The world has changed a lot since then (digitization, global trade, smaller economies becoming developed nations) The EU has lagged in every aspect of defense while focusing on a cushy lifestyle for the civilians. I’m not sure the US would be in a good position to uphold NATO doctrine if someone actually formidable took the offensive (China). A breakup of NATO as it exists is probably for the best for global deterrence. Best to view this topic post Trump. I think EU will quickly realize they still need the US when it comes to defense 3 years from now and I think new US leadership will be on a campaign to realign. Fact is, many western nations need to become stronger. End of the day, you don’t have to be “friends” to be good teammates. Some healthy skepticism of each other keeps the flame kindled under everyone’s ass imo. edit: Should add I’m not a fan of Trumps diplomatic approach with allies. But I also question the effectiveness of NATO the last 30 years.

I trade around a core position that’s generally around 10%

Nibbling at NTDOY

Proof we live in a world of information overload and algo curated bubbles.

Pays to be a cynic as an investor...

What's your read on the situation from a high level? Frankly I have no clue...I don't think this is longer than a few months though and the world will adapt as we always do. Outrage culture has made everyone since covid think every political event is the next big one.

Part of me is beginning to think this isn't about Iran for Trump, but instead about punishing Europe and countries he no longer perceives as allies. He is one vindictive son of a bitch and a petty one at that....The whole "go get your own oil" shifted my view on the purpose of this. Whenever politicians break out the classic Boogieman justifications I start looking at who's benefiting and which competitor is feeling the most pain. Bessent even said "The US will eventually own the SOH." Trump likes big shiny dick swinging assets. Is it feasible? idk, but if anyone is going to try and seize, occupy, and control the SOH it's Trump. I'm sure he'd love nothing more than charging the Hell out of the EU leaders with tolls. Who depends on the SOH the most? I believe Trump thinks at a very high yet simplistic level..

Same, too complex for me....as with banks I don't want to have to worry about some crock of shit stewing away on the back burner just waiting to boil over.. Maybe I'll put on a trade, but I can't do anything big with conviction. I don't have the bandwidth or skill to dig through their contracts. There is easier hurdles out there.

Some good discussion on $OWL here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tim-travis-on-private-credit-%24owl-%24obdc-and-%24msdl/id1454112457?i=1000756099316

It mostly affect next years planting season not this one. Most farmers of scale have already purchased their fert and soil amendments for the year months ago.

Volatility remains King

Artemis II is actually a nuke and Trump will let us know moments before impact in Tehran.