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Castanza

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Everything posted by Castanza

  1. "I would have almost 2k more a month to invest if I didn't have to pay income tax, SS, and medicare. 24k a year, 480k over 20 years. which would be worth almost double that if invested in SPY (backtest from 1990-2010)." me
  2. No interest in investing in the field. I just like the tech and am looking forward to the EV transition. Just seems like an industry filled with snake oil. I can't make heads or tails about it and that's enough to keep me away.
  3. And where are you putting your money? Automakers? Miners/Metals? Battery manufacturers? This "sector" seems far to broad to me and feels a lot like the "1940's aerospace" example in the Intelligent Investor.
  4. Technology to the rescue. http://whiskyadvocate.com/rapid-aging-whiskey-feature/ "The Science Behind Alternatively Aged Whisky. The Rosies pump ultrasonic waves through whiskey and other spirits to achieve the smoothed-out flavors and textures that typically come from years of barrel aging." Actually pretty interesting. Thanks for sharing. What a time to be alive lol Seems like something that would be targeted and lobbied against by big whiskey companies.
  5. This is nonsense. The reason why unfunded pension liabilities exist is because they weren't funded. Basically you've cut a deal (how much you'll pay) and then you didn't keep your end of the bargain (i.e. you didn't pay). The reason you didn't pay is because you we're selfish. You gave yourself a tax cut. Then in order to reneg you try to deflect and obfuscate. You get on your righteous horse and start bloviate: those damn pensioners, those damned unions, teachers... watch out. But really the reason why the situation exists is because you were a selfish deuce and you didn't pay what you owed. Just in case it's not clear when I say "you" I don't refer to you personally, but to certain groups. When you look at the private sector you have a similar situation where most of the pension plans are underfunded. The principle is the same. It's also greed. You've underfunded the pensions to show better financials. This in turn led to higher bonuses, and gains on stock options from higher valuations. However virtually all the companies that have unfunded pension plans for employees have fully funded pension plans for executives. Funny how that works no? GE is probably the worst private offender on pensions, but I know for a fact that in 2011 the executive pension plan at GE was overfunded. So workers and teachers should watch out but God forbid that Jack Welch should pay for light bulbs and toilet paper. I agree with what you say, the private sector certainly isn't void of these issues. I used to work for UPS and their pension situation is becoming a major issue quickly. The Teamsters Union is mostly to blame. I remember talking with a driver who was 63 (amazing he was still working). When they switched to the pension, whatever company it was pitched the idea that they would be making 11% returns on average......11%! Do pensions ever work out? Even pensions where people do pay fail. As for the public sector my biggest gripe is that these are "guaranteed." For example in PA during the 2008 financial crisis lots of people hit hard times. The pension fund had a lot of issues following 2001 when state lawmakers increased benefits. Turns out 7 years later they started noticing this major issue that was looming. My issue with public sector pensions is its always raiding the taxpayers pocket to make up for the difference needed. It's difficult "increase" benefits when you have a projected model with a static sum but you need to apply that static sum of money to something that can change. As we've seen with healthcare, col, etc (not saying these are directly related to pensions). The public sector is riddled with these "adjustments." I believe it was in Illinois where teachers who retired were expected to receive a 46k a year pension. Turns out when you do the adjustments for COL and everything else they were getting over 70k a year. These pensions are riddled with all kinds of loop holes, issues, etc. It's unsustainable. Again, I am not faulting individuals who retire with these pensions. Who wouldn't take advantage of they system? What they do (teachers, firefighters, police, etc etc....everyone but tax officials ;) ) is overall good for the country. But the system needs changed. Why shouldn't they just receive a 401k like everyone else? Makes you wonder after a while who the real "public servants" are.
  6. I wouldn't be too sure about that. Have you heard of MGP Ingredients: https://www.cincinnatimagazine.com/high-spirits-blog/mgp-ingredients-lawrenceburg/ They are contract producers for small label US whiskeys. You want to make Castanza whiskey? Call em up and they can make it happen. That's not exactly unique though. It's basically your own label on their whiskey. As mentioned in the article, the most important factor to good liquor is "time." It's difficult for small fry companies to sit on losses 10 years straight until their bourbon is aged. I'll admit, this seems like a relatively decent company with a decent client base. But from a marketing aspect I can't help but see the shortcomings. It doesn't feel as local as craft beer which are generally brewed on site. Therefore I think the "time" element is the largest barrier to entry in this market. But like I said. I'm not vested in any "beverages." And this article is a good example of why. I don't understand the market well enough. Too much regulation exists in it for me to find it interesting and lastly who knows what consumer trends will be once the boomers die off (no offense to the boomers). Do millennials have enough money for expensive liquor? All i remember from my college days is Kamchatka vodka and Early Times whiskey.
  7. And this is why unions and pensions should not exist if they are representing/for employees who are being funded by tax dollars. At the very least they shouldn't be "guaranteed".....cough cough teachers I'm looking at you. Same goes for all the firefighters, police etc who run up their salary before they retiring. If pension contributions can't be met then that's on them. Save your own money. Live responsibly. Pay what you owe.
  8. Goes to show you how corrupt the world is. Nuclear Energy (a modernized version of it) IS the only viable option for a true future of clean energy. Yet we see things in politics like "The New Green Deal" that actually want to eliminate every nuclear plant there is because it wont provide jobs to boot their (politician) voter base. Not to mention nuclear energy is essentially the cleanest energy there is. Highlights from the talk: - batteries aren't efficient enough - batteries are too expensive - Solar is inefficient (50x50 sq mile solar field to replace a single natural gas plant. Not including the cables, infrastructure, battery storage etc) - Solar is too expensive - Solar is not "green" energy - Wind is not "green" energy - Wind is highly inefficient - Wind and solar should be used as subsidiary energy edit: And to clarify, I'm not against wind or solar. They are great. But they aren't the solution at massive scales.
  9. Interesting article on beer. I was surprised to see that even craft beer brewers are hurting. It’s a bear market for beer :o https://www.ccn.com/millennials-killing-us-beer-next-victim-is-heineken The trend to spirits is mentioned as well. Heineken is the Budweiser of Europe, imo. the stock looks pretty overvalued too, but I think they are better run than Ambev. Personally I like Diaego better than any other alcohol related companies. They have a good diversification of product ranging from high end liquors to iconic and cult following beers like Guinness. It is trading at a premium for sure, and I doubt I would enter a position at this point. But it has performed much better than the competition out there. I think they do a good job of securing quality brands that consumers like. Liquor is for sure a "safer" bet it terms of the long game. Not many small craft liquor producers. Especially when it comes to stuff aged over 10 years. It's hard to replicate that.
  10. Not sure if this has been discussed here or not. It's really more for entertainment than anything. But this website allows you to see what members of congress are buying or just doing with their money in general. http://clerk.house.gov/public_disc/financial-search.aspx There are a few interesting plays. Noticed a few people taking large positions in GE and Travelers Inc, Massie opened a position (maybe added) in Tesla. Just browsing through for 30 min or so there seems to be a lot of people buying midstream, and utility companies. The most interesting was by far Nancy Pelosi. She opened a 1m-5m long call position on Amazon. Purchased 10k shares of At&t, and opened a 100-250k long call on FB. Again! Not saying to follow their investment moves (they probably have someone else do it anyways) but it's interesting regardless.
  11. You have peaked my interest with this. Any quick insights you have about this company?
  12. $MITK - Mitek Systems Will average in if it continues down. Sub $10 would be an extremely attractive price.
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