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nwoodman

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Everything posted by nwoodman

  1. Indeed. Thanks https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequoia_Capital https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruane,_Cunniff_%26_Goldfarb
  2. Destroying the legacy of Bill Ruane one malinvestment at a time. I would be fascinated to see “The new Sequoia” vs Berkshire returns since 2010. Next rainy day…. Edit: Smashing it
  3. I agree too. Time for the next Al “Chainsaw” Dunlap to make his mark and complete the bezzle of retail funds.
  4. I am sure it is just schadenfreude and I am not even sure who this is. But it is so bizarre I watched it twice
  5. Thanks @Viking, there may be a bit of a currency tail wind for a portion of those holdings if the USD normalises. It strikes me that even the Recipe buyout may look sensible in that light. Blackberry so far down the list only produces a slight grimace now, rather than the stomach cramps it used to I am also dying to have that EXCO black box prised open at some point
  6. Indeed. While no Bank of Ireland, which was a relative sugar hit in terms of timing. Eurobank has a more meat and potatoes feel about it. This was a big call, and I know Prem is always talking his book, but ya never know. The Macro charts at the end of the Eurobank pres, look promising
  7. Results in line https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/grafeio-tupou/etairikes-anakoinoseis/2022/3q-2022/3q2022-results-presentation.pdf EPS €0.04 TBV €1.64 +14% YoY NPE 5.6% All headed in the right direction
  8. The MS analyst Nida Iqbal recently updated her model (attached) for Eurobank who report Q3 results later today (10th November). She is tipping EUR0.045 EPS. The shares have run up a bit (EUR1.071) over the last month, and the current Market Cap is $3.87B and is much closer to FFH's carrying value. Eurobank's management has previously flagged they will recommence divs "The bank’s business plan for 2022-24 set a target of 13% average earnings per share growth per year and more than 100 basis points of capital generation annually out of profits. The bank will begin to pay dividends out of this year’s earnings, with the planned payout ratio seen at around 20%, it said." This is likely to be in the range EUR0.05-0.06 per share. Shares Out 3.71B. This should deliver around 0.05x3710*0.322=60-70m of cashflow from divs. Nothing to sneeze at and if you take the view that the USD is overvalued it might be even sweeter. Purchasing Power Parity (ubc.ca) Perhaps not their greatest investment but one that looks like it will soon be paying its way. EUROBANK_20221102_0000.pdf Eurobank Model 10-11-22.xlsm
  9. Nothing but a rare trade for me. Deeply dislike the business model and I dislike the CEO even more. Anything this maniac does that remotely resembles stewardship of capital will result in a relief rally IMHO. Looking forward to selling ASAP Edit: and restoring the respect of my wife who dislikes this company more than I do
  10. Good to see them rolling out the curve. You can't argue with their bond-investing prowess! Those 3-5 yields look pretty sweet, and 3-5 year treasuries are hardly "reaching for yield". Good on them; they deserve to be rewarded for their patience. A similar graph for MKL They will continue to get hit if rates keep on rising. Good thing their CRs remain in the low 90's, even with an "Ian"
  11. (6) IDBI Bank EOI’s due in December, so my bet is it will be all quiet on the buyback front until the bid is awarded next year. I hope I am wrong! https://www.forbesindia.com/article/take-one-big-story-of-the-day/idbi-bank-lot-of-value-difficult-to-extract/80431/1
  12. This! Hard to believe that you sell a pet insurance business for “1.4bn”that wasn’t on anyone’s radar. Then you “firesale” a crown jewel that everyone has been waiting with bated breath to see its true earnings power. This company melts my brain.
  13. If that proves the case, a very welcome amendment indeed. Impressive digging as always
  14. Great news indeed. I thought this might have been suffering further delays, good to see it happening in 2022
  15. MS with an update on losses “Hurricane Ian makes Florida landfall, marking the first major hurricane to make landfall since Hurricane Ida in 2021. Current industry loss estimates range from $10b-$30b+. We think individual company exposures are manageable. While total insured losses for FY22 should be < $100b, we still expect strong reinsurance pricing into 2023.” INSURANCE_20220929_0000.pdf
  16. @Spekulatius Thanks for the vid, what a train wreck
  17. Perhaps, while it is hardly an original thought, arming the these minorities has the potential for unintended consequences. Perhaps I am being overly optimistic but there is a chance for a levered outcome here. The underbelly is showing.
  18. Fixed it for ya. I think this is the last roll of the dice for the nutjob. Watching the news tonight with the solitary voluntary conscript being interviewed as he departs….even my kids said “but that bus is so empty”
  19. A rather irate Jeremy Siegal. “Calling it poor monetary policy is an understatement”. Sure is creating some interesting opportunities either way. Flushing of weak hands and crappy businesses is a pleasing outcome. Cathie Wood stepping down from a couple of her shittier ETFs should mark the beginning of the end
  20. Great read. The definition of insanity springs to mind. Watching the news this morning there appears to be a “run on Russia” with many young men fleeing across the border. Hopefully this plays out rapidly from here….in a good way
  21. Great start, but why no Mid American/BHE?
  22. Yep, the regulator two-step goes on. I think you make an excellent point though….. there is a big difference between “No” and “No, but we will reconsider once you have done …..”. An impeccable record of corporate governance will be key…to misquote A Tropic Thunder “Very easy to shit the money bed” Will it be worth it? The market seems to have a view. We see an opportunity
  23. Looks like the IPO is on hold for now "While SEBI gave no reasons for its decision, a source familiar with the watchdog's thinking said concerns had been raised by the regulator that privately held Digit issued shares to more than 200 individuals in the past financial year, which is not allowed under Indian laws and regulations. Digit will need to review SEBI's concerns and resolve them at an appropriate forum, the source added." Digit Insurance IPO put on hold by Indian watchdog | Reuters SEBI | Processing Status : Issues
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