nwoodman

This one seems to be working out very nicely. From the Independent http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/fbd-faces-battle-for-control-after-shares-soar-35687594.html and A move to more of these "paid to wait" type deals is very welcome cheers nwoodman

Looks like an interesting prospect with a strong growth profile http://m.economictimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/prem-watsa-deepak-parekh-and-2-others-join-bial-board/articleshow/57927501.cms

Nothing solid, but suggests they might get $1bn+ for their ICICI Lombard Stake "Shares of ICICI Bank gained 2 percent intraday Thursday after a media report suggested that global private equity firms are looking to acquire Fairfax's shareholding in general insurance company ICICI Lombard. "Global private equity firms including The Carlyle Group, Warburg Pincus Llc and Advent International have evinced interest in acquiring the 35 percent stake in ICICI Lombard General Insurance held by Canadian financial institution Fairfax Financial Holdings," a media report said quoting people aware of the development. According to a report, the proposed deal will value the joint venture at USD 3 billion (around Rs 20,000 crore). ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company is a joint venture between ICICI Bank, India's second largest lender and Canada’s Fairfax Financial Holdings. ICICI Bank holds 65 percent stake and the rest is held by Farifax in joint venture." http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/buzzing-stocks/icici-bank2-as-pe-firms-shows-interest-for-stakelombard_8584341.html

Looks like Suncorp is throwing their hat in the ring.... "Suncorp chief executive Michael Cameron has raided Tower’s share registry, as part of a potential new strategy of building up the bank’s life insurance business by carrying out some big name acquisitions. The Queensland regional bank, through its Vero brand, is keen to buy 19.9 per cent of Tower, the New Zealand-listed insurance business, which is now the subject of a takeover tussle. Canadian firm Fairfax Financial Holdings launched a $197 million bid for Tower earlier this month, which was supported by the board and major shareholders. But, in a surprise move, Suncorp commissioned UBS to enter the market after the close yesterday and offer $NZ1.21 a share to buy the stock." http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/suncorp-makes-play-for-tower/news-story/4243124ba76af926dc14edc5736ce28a

Allied world results https://www.twst.com/update/awac-allied-world-assurance-company-holdings-ag-allied-world-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2016-results/ YE CR 96.2% Cheers nwoodman

Recent Planet Money Podcast on Ed Thorpe http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/01/20/510810752/episode-749-professor-blackjack

It strikes me that this is the kind of deal you would do when you are about to take a hit to book. It is always difficult to know exactly what they hold but my guesstimate is Equities= Flat Bonds = -300m even after the sale of UST. If they hadn't sold they would have wiped a further $350m Hedges = -250m even after reducing them by half. If they hadn't closed out half then it would have wiped a further $300m So another quarter with assets dropping around 500-600m Add back (perhaps) U/W profit of 175m and say $75m of interest and divs Gives a loss of around $250m - $350m pre-tax I am tipping book value declined by $10-15 during the quarter. Also why wait until now when AWH was trading much cheaper (-20% to -30%) for most of 2016. I guess by the time the deal closes in 2017 book value will hopefully be back to the level the deal was made at and then some. Perhaps this is why they want the flexibility to do cash rather than stock in the event something radically changes in the next 6 months. As it stands Prem seems to be sending a pretty strong signal that, at the current share price, the stock ain't cheap cheers nwoodman

"The deal, under which Fairfax will pick up a majority stake in the capital-starved lender for Rs 1,000 crore (USD 147m), is unique because it gives the Canadian company just 15% voting rights in the bank in line with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regulations. In other words, it opens up a new door for investors wanting a piece of the lucrative Indian banking sector within existing regulations. " http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/how-prem-watsas-deal-to-buy-stake-in-csb-offers-ray-of-hope-for-ailing-banks/articleshow/55843011.cms Any thoughts to how this works? My guess is two share classes, with the second having negligible voting rights but equal rights economically when it comes to distributions (eg Brk.A and Brk.B). Interesting that if it closes, Fairfax will be the first company allowed to invest in such a way cheers nwoodman

Thanks for posting. Certainly a couple of points cheaper than a few weeks ago. Politically a very high chance it will close. A very interesting litmus test for what the middle game in India could achieve cheers nwoodman

It might also be partly due to the cluster$%^% that is India (at the moment). Prem's bullishness there is all about PM Modi reforming the economy. For this to happen Modi needs to last more than one term http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-17/indian-economy-grinds-halt-after-cash-ban-demonetisation-has-shaken-our-faith-moneta cheers nwoodman

Are the US deflation hedges next? Cheers nwoodman

Opening remarks and Q&A attached cheers nwoodman Opening_Remarks_FFH_CC__4-11-16.mp3 QandA_FFH_CC__4-11-16_.mp3

That was the standout for me too! cheers nwoodman

With respect to all, can we please quit this line of reasoning. The IQ thesis debate, has been well argued by both sides, so let's leave it at that. My original post was simply drawing attention to Prem's view on the prospects for India. This will either work or it won't. I think a more interesting topic of discussion is whether PM Modi can make changes required for growth, that in turn, will achieve above average returns for Fairfax. Cheers nwoodman

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-now/experts/very-bullish-on-fin-services-in-india-prem-watsa/videoshow/54689041.cms Cheers nwoodman

FWIW http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/after-brexit-vote-cibcs-paul-holden-does-retake-on-fairfax-now-a-sector-performer-700-target Also looks they have picked up another asian insurer deal valued at $8M http://www.economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_s_Asian_Alliance_general_insurance_unit_goes_to_Fairfax-3-5353-17.html cheers nwoodman

I'm with you brother. I'm holding my nose more than I ever thought I would. I totally get the deflation bet and the hedging. It's pretty much why I bought this stock. Their stock picking, however, is too often atrocious, indefensible and bordering on amateurish... if not already there. I simply don't get their thinking or analysis. Bank of Ireland was a home run even if it was a Kennedy Wilson pick. Its off from its highs but they also managed to take some money off the table too

Fascinating, thanks for posting cheers nwoodman

I thought this was an interesting observation: " A funny thing happens to an index's valuation when you choose not to entirely ignore the companies that have negative earnings (i.e. losses). Ever wondered what the P/E ratio of the Russell 2000 was given that it is full of companies where the 'E' is negative? The answer is simple - and ugly - as The Wall Street Journal exposes, the aggregate P/E of the Russell 2000 is over 200x which perhaps explains the gaping chasm between bond and equity valuations for this highly credit-sensitive cohort." http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/02/28/20160228_rty2_0.jpg http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-28/three-charts-no-small-cap-asset-manager-wants-you-see cheers nwoodman

I share your frustration but that statement is a little extreme. Bank of Ireland has been a great and material investment. However, If they hadn't fixed the insurance companies I would have been long gone, but they seem to be running that part of the business very successfully now. I believe their over all positioning will be roughly right but their timing was very early. It sucked, has been priced in and the more interesting line of thinking is what happens going forwards Cheers Nwoodman

Very impressive sir, well done! A nice set of result all round cheers nwoodman

Confirmed http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/AUG1015.pdf Cheers nwoodman

http://news.yahoo.com/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-nearing-deal-buy-precision-163812149--finance.html Cheers Nwoodman

Not a bad article for ZH. Does a reasonable job of summing up the deflation thesis http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-03/largest-financial-departure-reality-human-history Cheers nwoodman

Cripes, that was quick http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/idUSL5N0XC0QH20150415 cheers nwoodman