nwoodman

0% cash FFH32% BRK 26% L14% BAC5% LRE4% BKIR4% GAP.AX4% DELL4% <4% UNAM, MKL, RIMM, PARRO.PA Thanks to all for such a great forum. New cash going to FFH due to P/B and inherent hedge, however all the companies I am interested in look undervalued when investing AUD.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividendchannel/2013/01/16/reminder-fairfax-financial-goes-ex-dividend-soon/?partner=yahootix On 1/18/13, Fairfax Financial Holdings, Ltd. (Toronto: FFH) will trade ex-dividend, for its annual dividend of $10.00, payable on 1/29/13.

Thanks for this. Would you care to speculate the likely impact for LRE or Odyssey Re? Thanks in advance

It indeed does look promising. Heins was initially our show stopper but we think we get him now. We picked up a very small position in RIMM when they were trading sub $7. However we have been adding to our relatively large FFH position below $370, the recent sell off making it much easier. We have come to the conclusion that RIMM can a be viable option for 3rd place which is crazy if you paid >$60/share but works <$20/share

Well you just confirmed the benefits so a win win :)

Hi Gio, Greatly appreciated and thanks for the breakdown. Btw is that level of detail only available to subscribers? Cheers nwoodman

Given they now own 51.9m shares of RIMM, I believe their break even to be under $20. Does anyone have a more accurate estimate as at Q3? Thanks in advance nwoodman

Thanks, that explains the recent price action. Life just got interesting for the Cheldin's Cheers nwoodman

Another article http://www.sacbee.com/2012/11/11/4977686/leons-to-acquire-the-brick.html "Each of William Comrie, the founder of The Brick, Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited ("Fairfax"), Chou RRSP Fund, and Bill Gregson, the Executive Chair of The Brick's Board of Directors, who together hold approximately 66.6% of the outstanding common shares and warrants of The Brick, have entered into irrevocable voting support agreements and agreed to vote their common shares in favour of the Arrangement."

This was excellent! Thanks for posting these nwoodman

Great notes, thanks for posting Cheers nwoodman

Thanks for posting, Grantham's quote above particularly struck a chord. The hollowing out of our manufacturing base here in Australia is disturbing to say the least. While the commodities boom has made us richer in the short term, we will inevitably succumb to a rather severe bout of Dutch disease. Time to open a salon or two and then hope the masses have some free cashflow available after servicing the mortgage on inflated real estate ;)

Thanks, I should have picked that up

Market Scout believes pricing grew a little faster, with P&C rate increases on average up 5% for September MarketScout's CEO, Richard Kerr, noted, "The more premium a buyer pays, the more competitive the rates. Smaller and middle market accounts ($0 to $250,000 in premium) paid an average rate increase of 6 percent in September. Large accounts ($250,000 to $1,000,000) paid a rate increase of 4 percent and jumbo accounts (over $1,000,000) paid only a 3 percent rate increase." http://www.marketscout.com/frontend/barometer_mar.asp

Thanks for the suggestions. Cheers Nwoodman

I use a google docs spreadsheet to track my portfolio. Over the last week it has stopped providing me with the share price for fairfax financial using the following ticker symbols: 1. FRFHF 2. FFH.TO Has anyone encountered this? Is there a work around? It is really strange as all the other ticker symbols whether US, CAN, or AUS are working fine. Thanks in advance nwoodman

CC transcript http://seekingalpha.com/article/758141-fairfax-financial-holdings-limited-management-discusses-q2-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript Cheers Nwoodman

Thanks for the link, well worth watching Cheers nwoodman

Some interesting analysis by Chovanec http://chovanec.wordpress.com/ "China’s developers are playing out a kind of prisoner’s dilemma: rush to complete, in hopes of cashing out. But while supply keeps going up, demand is going down. In late March, a central bank (PBOC) survey reported that only 14.1% of Chinese consumers were looking to buy a house in Q2, the lowest level since 1999. Only 17.7% expected home prices to rise in Q2, and 62.9% said they still consider prices to be too high. So all those rushed completions only add to the glut already on the market, driving prices down further and giving buyers — investors and aspiring residents alike — all the more reason to hold off for a better deal."

I agree, I would rate this site in my top 5 clicks in the morning to get the day started....one of which is the Nespresso. I can't say the same for FB.

Looks like regression to the mean continues. It will be interesting to see if the RBA drops by 50 bp at their meeting today. http://www.theage.com.au/business/home-price-fall-adds-to-rba-focus-20120501-1xvya.html http://www.theage.com.au/business/home-sales-sink-to-lowest-since-1994-20120430-1xtur.html

Low double digits. His appeal for me, especially in this letter, is in his pro USA bias due to low cost energy. He also has a healthy skepticism towards China, that fits somewhat with my own views Cheers Nwoodman

Full letter now at Zerohedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hugh-hendry-back-full-eclectica-letter

A couple of articles discussing Hugh's latest letter to shareholders http://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hendry-letter-to-shareholders-2012-4 http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy/hugh-hendry-on-why-he-is-so-bearish-on-china.html cheers nwoodman

It's a good point. If Prem is true to his word then they will max out at around $250m in terms of this position. However what price should FFH put on his time?