nwoodman

"Prime Restaurants (TSE:EAT) said Friday it will seek the advice of the Superior Court of Justice in Ontario, as to whether or not the take-over bid it received from Fairfax Financial (TSE:FFH) is superior to that of Cara Operations" http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/21635/prime-restaurants-seeks-advice-of-superior-court-in-cara-fairfax-tussle-21635.html

The Economist's take on housing valuation http://www.economist.com/node/21540231?fsrc=nlw So there are still a few countries with housing more overvalued than Australia ;)

Next sub? http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/fairfax-announces-acquisition-of-additional-common-shares-of-mega-brands-inc-tsx-ffh-1589734.htm

Globe and Mail coverage http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/fairfax-tops-caras-bid-for-prime-restaurants/article2243286/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2243286

Nice find, thanks for posting

Never a truer word spoken

Seems to be working out OK for Iceland. It will be the right thing for Greece to do too http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-world-can-learn-from-icelands-default-model-2011-8?op=1 Hopefully this will assist in bringing about some real changes to the banking and financial system. As Taleb said it is basically just an issue of remuneration.

Hi Myth, that is an interesting observation. We certainly have had good wages growth over the last 5 years as the terms of trade have reached 140 year highs. http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/1B242DF1E24E07A9E92579300022C812/$file/111021%20Australia%20terms%20of%20trade%20and%20private%20investment.png However this may well be running its course if iron prices are anything to go by. In this respect we are at the mercy of the Chinese and their desire to construct GDP http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Picture-512.png Similar to other countries prior to their bubbles bursting the finance sector as a % of GDP is way too large. There is already talk of large retrenchments in the banking sector due to reduced credit growth. This credit growth has been the real driver of housing prices and it appears to have finally tipped over. It will be interesting to see if we succumb to the same debt saturation as other Western nations. If so then the RBA now starts to push on a string in terms of policy response. If we get regression to the mean in terms of housing prices then it will be quite the correction http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/realhouseprices1880to2011.gif Cheers nwoodman

RBA lowers rates by 25bp http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/RBA-cuts-cash-rate-pd20111101-N7455?OpenDocument&src=hp1

"Robert A. Pritzker, an industrial engineer and philanthropist who ran one of America’s largest private companies, died Thursday in Chicago. He was 85." http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/31/business/robert-a-pritzker-dies-at-85-family-conglomerate-included-hyatt.html?_r=1

Couldn't agree more. Trust the Europeans, the masters of fashion, to set a new standard in terms of the "Emperor's new clothes".

Great interview. During the talk he mentions Vaclav Smil as one of the most knowledgeable authors in the energy space. Here is a link to Gates review of one of his books http://www.thegatesnotes.com/Books/Energy/A-Rational-Look-at-Energy-Energy-Myths-and-Realities

"Lord of the Flies had more hope for their society than these goofballs!" That is gold! Nice reference to one of my favorite books from high school days :) Similar lack of cohesion in the Land of Oz which has seen the movement fizzle somewhat, not to mention that as a nation we are still a few rungs up Maslow's hierarchy on the USA. It could be a different story in a couple of years time. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-17/kohler-occupy-wall-street-as-they-fight-for-change/3575064 It was interesting to see a few of these graphs made the the7pm news on the ABC tonight. http://www.businessinsider.com/what-wall-street-protesters-are-so-angry-about-2011-10?op=1

Thanks for posting. Only small potatoes but nice terms. Looks like FFH has a new sub. "Following completion of the Equity Private Placement, Fairfax will beneficially own, or exercise control or direction over, directly or indirectly, 26,757,523 common shares representing approximately 73.9% of the then issued and outstanding common shares (on a fully-diluted basis) and, assuming the exercise of all Warrants issued under the Debt and Warrant Private Placement, 42,142,139 common shares, representing approximately 81.7% of the issued and outstanding common shares." About Imvescor Restaurant Group Headquartered in Moncton, New Brunswick, Imvescor Restaurant Group owns franchised and corporate stores throughout Canada, under four brands: Pizza Delight® operates primarily in Atlantic Canada, where it dominates the family/mid-scale segment. Mikes® and Scores® restaurants operate primarily in Quebec in the family and casual dining segments and the take-out and delivery segments. Bâton Rouge® operates in Quebec, Ontario, and Alberta in the casual dining segment. Anyone been to one of their restaurants?

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2011Q3NP.pdf Interesting final paragraph "In view of the United States extreme over-indebtedness, we believe that 2% is a an attainable level for the long treasury bond yield. In the previous historic cases yields tended to remain close to their record lows for an extended period of time, coinciding with a long period of deleveraging. Presently the U.S. is in its fifth year of deleveraging, and patient investors in the long end of the treasury market have been financially rewarded. We continue to hold long positions in thirty- year treasury debt, but remain increasingly wary of the potential for further adverse meddling by Federal Reserve authorities."

I tend to agree that is why I thought the results were interesting, perhaps it is just an anomaly

Early days I know, but pleasing to see at least a little pricing power returning. Good to see Workers Comp leading a subdued charge for Zenith, up 2%. Surety up 2% also vindicates Loews sub CNA buying out the minority stake in CNA Surety. Energy up 2% has to be a good thing for Lancashire. http://www.marketscout.com/frontend/barometer2.asp cheers nwoodman

It is starting to get interesting. Arrears rates are on the rise albeit from a low rate http://www.scribd.com/doc/66629323/Report-Aussie-Mortgage-Delinquencies-Sep2011 and clearance rates are stuck at around 50% with property prices beginning to slide despite the best efforts of the spruikers http://afr.com/rw/2009-2014/AFR/2011/09/30/Photos/db5d0ebe-eb04-11e0-a6db-abb2c1b5de7c_rpdata.pdf cheers Nwoodman

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72140684/ July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., talks about the outlook for the U.S. housing market and employment. Buffett, speaking with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop," also discusses President Barack Obama's policies and continued negotiations on a U.S. deficit plan. The speak from the Allen & Co. conference in Sun Valley, Idaho. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Perhaps this is a bit simplistic but I find the QonQ change in book value from $45.54 to $46.81, +2.8% or 11% annualized acceptable. Over the long term they seem to be able to compound book value at around 10%+. Investing in Loewes seems to work out OK if you can pick them up in the range of 0.8-0.85x's book (37.5-39.5). At the current market price of 38.23 the are starting to look quite tempting Cheers Nwoodman

Some more details emerge http://www.independent.ie/business/world/bois-new-shareholders-millions-richer-from-underwriting-fees-2835756.html "The sale -- dubbed 'Project Foxtrot' in honour of Fairfax's lead role -- was put together in just four weeks after talks with private equity suitors collapsed when the Government refused to indemnify them against the bank's possible future losses. The mechanics of the deal saw the quintet of investors agree to spend up to €1.1bn on shares that were not taken up by existing shareholders who'd been given the opportunity to take part in a so-called rights issue. That arrangement made the quintet 'sub-underwriters' of the deal, falling behind the National Pensions Reserve Fund (NPRF) which had initially agreed to underwrite all €2bn of the issue. The NPRF had underwriting fees of 4pc for its role. A spokesman for the Department of Finance confirmed that the new investors also got an underwriting fee. The fee is likely to have been less than the 4pc enjoyed by the NPRF, implying a figure of less than €44m for the €1.1bn the quintet agreed to buy. Their fee is still understood to have been in the tens of millions. News of the underwriting fee is likely to fuel arguments that the quintet have got a fantastic deal on BoI at the expense of the taxpayer, but sources close to the department last night insisted the best deal for Ireland had been done. While the Government has paid €1.9bn for a BoI stake valued at just €300m today, the collapse in the bank's value since the first injection in February 2009 would have hit the state's investment, regardless of the outcome of this week's recapitalisation. A spokesman for the Department of Finance confirmed that BoI's new owners would be "locked in" to their investment for an unspecified period. Earlier in the week, Fairfax Financial boss Prem Wasra told the Irish Independent that he saw the investment as a "long-term" play."

Link to the article for those that are interested http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/fairfax-bet-on-bank-of-ireland-averts-government-control/article2111528/ Cheers nwoodman

Top post Myth. The longer I do this the more I weight management integrity above all else. As you rightly point out, this is something that can only be gauged over years. Cheers Nwoodman

Link to the transcript, hopefully the ABC will hang onto this one as it is definitely a keeper http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/201106/s3234315.htm

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/ "The market is going to be soft: Chronican" worth watching the interview just to see Ticky Fullerton's (interviewer) incredulous reaction to some of the poker faced banker's (Chronican) answers. This interview has made my day :) Cheers nwoodman