nwoodman

More ATCO and BRK.B. Berkshire is not thump the table cheap, but in the 270’s is right on the entry point for “buy and hold for a high probability low double digit compounder.” Refreshingly boring.

Added to ATCO

This from ATCO https://ir.atlascorporation.com/2021-11-17-Atlas-Clarifies-Incorrect-Recent-Media-Coverage-Concerning-its-Common-Shareholders

OK I am gong to call it, does anyone honestly believe that Odyssey is worth 9B? I am happy that they are buying back shares but again the cash is via the Omers pawn shop and we don't know what the interest rate is. I will be horrified if they take the mark, it is as good as a related third party. Just saying....

Me too and then you get this https://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2021/Fairfax-Announces-US1.0-Billion-Substantial-Issuer-Bid-and-Sale-of-9.99-Minority-Stake-in-Odyssey-Group/default.aspx

Excellent summary. More than a little interested to see how this goes. Have followed Terrapower from a distance and always thought the concept of small scale NE was a good way to go.

Thanks, an interesting but altogether unsurprising addition at these levels.

The challenge with this company is getting comfortable with the actual BV number and then trusting manage to "do no damage" to that book value. Unfortunately it boils down to a test of faith. I think it is a viable risk reward opportunity for a chunk of my capital but I choose to split the difference between the market and management's BV for a valuation. There's still plenty that need's fixing or axing but agree much has improved.

Yep, was surprised they didn’t last quarter. But hey -20% yesterday, any write downs for last quarter wouldn’t have properly captured this $hitshow

"The money will roll right in.." (Ah Fang what a legacy of covers you left us)

Agree but shouldn't be too far away. I am sure they are still in the Lacey Hunt camp and this "inflationary" pressure will pass, the debt overhang is just too great. Apologies if this has been posted previously, I watched it a couple of weeks ago and it is always great to hear Lacey Hunt's views. One of the greats IMHO. Also a day doesn't make a trend but it was interesting to see on a "sell off" day, FFH with +ve alpha

Decent increase in GPW for Digit in October, the numbers are jumpy MoM so can't read too much into it. For the 9 months they hold a 1.8% market share (85% YoY Growth). However in October they wrote 2.8% of total GPW including stand alone health insurers. Added Acko GI to the chart for comparison.

Added to FFH and ATCO

Hurricane Ida - estimated losses $30bn => FFH 340.1/30000 = 1.1% European Floods - estimated losses $11 bn => FFH 173.8/11000 = 1.6%

Nice call!

Fairfax - Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited: Financial Results for the Third Quarter Brit and Odyssey copped it on the nose, but other than than that looks OK at a first glance. Should clear the air a bit, I was worried that the European flood claims might be much worse

Recipe’s Q3 is out https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/recipe-unlimited-reports-q3-2021-results-881668597.html Looks like sales are indeed bouncing back nicely. A marginal improvement in EBITDA over pre-Covid 2019 figures too. I liked the news that they are selling positions that aren’t meeting expectations. Far from my favourite FFH position but seems to be moving in the right direction

The more I see everyone else not taking significant hits from Ida and Europe, the more worried I get about Fairfax. Really hope I am looking at it the wrong way.

Excellent, thanks Glider. A useful data point and with Amazon behind them may ultimately prove some stiff competition. Both companies should be able to grow nicely for the foreseeable future though.

Two episodes in on ATV+ Invasion. Definitely worth a watch, some intriguing characters and a good tempo. Production values are up there. Was pleasantly surprised to see the Fairfax link: “Invasion is a Boat Rocker Studios production that was written and executive produced by Simon Kinberg and David Weil. Jakob Verbruggen, an Emmy Award nominee, directs and acts as executive producer. Executive producers include Audrey Chon, Amy Kaufman, and Elisa Ellis, in addition to Andrew Baldwin, who also writes. Boat Rocker Studios’ executive producer is Katie O’Connell Marsh.” Edit: Kocked over episode 3, not in any great hurry to see episode 4.

Yep, unfortunately Foundation not really working for us either. Will persevere for a few more episodes, they have renewed it for a second season so I remain hopeful.

I am not enamoured with either situation.

A recent bullish piece on India by MS. They are arguing for corporate earnings to compound 20-25% p.a. over the next 4 years. Their reasoning: 1. The policy intent has clearly shifted from boosting consumption via transfers to boosting growth via investments. Policymakers have been initiating reforms for a while now and we believe that the economy is now in a good position to reap the cumulative benefits from past reforms 2. Macro stability indicators – which are symptoms of a weak productivity dynamic – are in good shape. 3. With deleveraging headwinds now behind, the global demand environment will turn much more supportive. “The India story stands out now, not only from an absolute perspective but also from a relative perspective, because of this rise in the ratio of corporate profit to GDP. Our strategist for India, Ridham Desai, has been pointing out the fundamentals that will drive rising corporate profits. He notes that “with nascent signs of capex, supportive government policy for higher corporate profit share in GDP and a robust global growth outlook, India seems well placed to enter a new profit cycle. For an economy that is likely to grow at a nominal rate of 10-12% per annum, if the profit share in GDP hits 3.5% over the next five years, it gives us an annual compounded growth in earnings of ~25% for the broad market. Indeed, higher profits feed into real GDP growth and back into profits so a virtuous cycle unfolds with concomitant positive impact on share prices." They explore some of the issues over the last 10 years, sound familiar? Worth a read over the weekend, enjoy. india - on the cusp of a virtuous cycle.pdf

Agree, a good time to be taking assets public. . I haven’t come across any news on the Anchorage float perhaps they are waiting for air travel to tick up some more.