hasilp89

i bought some more of this today as well. I like Rennie, although sometimes wonder how DPE ended up where it is (maybe valuation just got ahead of itself there). Along with the growth in stores over the next 5 years I think they'll make a good return on the Shorecal acquistion after they operate and refranchise. The DP Poland investment is interesting, there's another DPE guy who worked with Rennie running that. Not thrilled with the comments on "additional brands" but we'll see where that goes. Fits that same bucket for me.

correct mentioned 2.7 years on the call. sounds like buybacks will continue to be in focus given 1) premium growth slowing and insurance businesses requiring less capital + 2) holding company is well funded with cash and has no near term debt maturities.

I think that criticism is misplaced and incorrect. It misses the fact that Buffett treats his shareholders like partners. Why would he want the stock to be volatile in order to take advantage of people who invest alongside him as partners? Also, as a shareholder, I’ve never felt he’s tried to manage the stock price. He’s addressed the reality of the price (IIRC when the issued B shares he explicitly said he wouldn’t buy at this price) but never tried to manage it. In fact he does the opposite by not doing quarterly calls, not providing guidance etc.

remind us of the process/timing/probability of this. (apologies i know you've discussed it before)

Powell has commented on US deficit a few times this year. https://www.ft.com/content/bb4fb36e-9669-408f-8b73-7091fbb6fae0 https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2024/02/fed-chair-powell-its-past-time-to-address-our-national-debt Buffett's view is higher taxes. (2024 AGM) "And one thing that may surprise you, but we… Almost everybody I know pays a lot more attention to not paying taxes, and I think they should. We don’t mind paying taxes at Berkshire, and we are paying a 21% federal rate on the gains we’re taking in Apple. And that rate was 35% not that long ago, and it’s been 52% in the past when I’ve been operating. And the government owns… The federal government owns a part of the earnings of the business we make. They don’t own the assets, but they own a percentage of the earnings, and they can change that percentage any year. And the percentage that they’ve decreed currently is 21%. And I would say, with the present fiscal policies, I think that something has to give, and I think that higher taxes are quite likely, and if the government wants to take a greater share of your income, or mine or Berkshire’s, they can do it. And they may decide that someday they don’t want the fiscal deficit to be this large, because that has some important consequences, and they may not want to decrease spending a lot, and they may decide they’ll take a larger percentage of what we earn, and we’ll pay it."

@Dinar assuming you still own this. Any thoughts on this post earnings downgrade? Keith Meister from Corvex was appointed to the board and owns 13%. Assume he will be pushing for shareholders.

@Eng12345 Really interesting stuff. Thank you for sharing.

great insight. Thank you for sharing. Two follow ups. - the points you make regarding baseload power, dispatchable power and the need to instantaneously match supply to demand are very simple, make sense and should be easy to understand. So why have we gone of the rails with renewables? Maybe it just gets back to the local needs and politics as you say. - regarding nuclear not being a solution for disptachable power. Doesn’t it make sense to keep adding nuclear as baseload and having gas / coal as the dispatchable? Additionally do the small reactors terraform/gates is working on solve this problem.

@Eng12345 Would love to hear more on your perspective re grid. in terms of opportunities, are you saying value you gap has closed given recent run up in certain utilities (Vistra/Constellation etc.), or some other reasons. The industry opportunity here seems straight forward. More demand for power than supply. Making an investment based on that has been more difficult for me (regulatory risk - gvt limits returns, technological risk - Gates spending Billions on small Nuclear reactors and it actually works).

interesting. i'm guessing you know it better than most then!

Something you've been following for a while or results downgrade (and price decline) got you interested?

Buyback?

wow never heard of the guy but he really went after Rubenstein. Thanks for sharing.

yup he's a legend, he's getting up there with Sachin Tendulkar and still has some years in him. He'll be in the states this summer. India vs. Pakistan tickets going for $1k+ . Definitely someone positive to have Digit's name identified with. one quick snapshot of what he does and then i'll be quiet.

I've be re-reading that first line and reflecting on it a lot. Thanks for sharing the original @gfp. WEB's response to the question is also instructive and pasted below. I'm know being corny, but i think folks who share their insights and wisdom on this site attempt to do just that. It's a lovely thing. Q: If you were to make an ethical bequest to Berkshire shareholders, what duties would you impose and why?” Warren: “I’d probably say read Charlie. I mean, he’s expressed it well, and I would say that if you’re not financially well off, if you’re being kind, you’re doing something that most of the rich people don’t do, even when they give away money. But that’s on the question of whether you’re rich or poor. And I would say, if you’re lucky in life, make sure a bunch of other people are lucky, too.

With respect Greg you know why it happens - people make "investments" in pieces of paper as % holding in a portfolio that needs to keep up with the S&P. As a result the psychological tendencies and misbehavior mentioned above occurs. You on the other hand - 1) Treat your investments as an ownership interest in a business. 2) Periodically reflect on your basis vs. intrinsic value. 3) Remind yourself that you won't get rich by selling great business just because they went up a lot or because it became a tremendous part of your net worth. Its Buffett/Munger 101. (as for me, I've been guilty of the mistakes and I'm constantly trying to reform)

I'd recommend Bernard Arnault's - it's quite impressive how consistent he has been over time is on what his focus's is. His AGM comments are also very good. Some other's I've gone back and read - Prem/Fairfax, VNO/Roth. Worth reading the original Buffett Partnership Letters. Have been meaning to go through the Munger/Blue Chip ones but haven't made the time.

lol no clue how they get the names right. in general i find the tikr transcripts to be pretty good. would also recommend the Quatr app - most EC/AGM/Investor Days/industry conferences can be streamed live or on replay. (although FFH AGM isn't on there!)

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rW-8uDJFJzlu0jzAaPWXX_P1XdvvOeKTABhEV6ouSKk/edit?usp=sharing it is available on tikr also. in a google doc here.

For me it’s on the insurance side. It’s part of the business, but the unknown unknowns especially with global operations (1 in a 100 year flood happening right now in the UAE - hopefully Gulf doesn’t have a bunch of flood policies). While I understand the culture of the management and generally trust them one. poor decision layered on one misprinted risk can hurt. Unlikely it puts a large hole in the business but it could slow things down. Additionally I think it’s worth considering how strong the underwriting market has been. It can’t be this strong forever and premiums won’t go up in a straight line. Again doesn’t mean they drop 20% but it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see some declines.

Don't believe it is a rumor, Dave Sokol did say that. It was wonderful to meet you and many others!

+1

lol. How about the jobs and opportunities offered to them by Israelis. I’m sure they find similar employment with hamas… how many Jews in Arab gvt vs Arabs in Israeli gvt.

The currency used by Iran to fund all their nonsense. Doors opened up to get rid of them.

She did a good interview with Howard marks recently that touches on the ideas from the book - https://open.spotify.com/episode/1eQVEutUjWJu7CYn2h03iF?si=2uRGUb3JSmmz-euSnO-8-A