hasilp89

dumb question. Balance Sheet common equity is $18.6B which is where the $803/ share number comes from. Why don't folks 1 .subtract goodwill / intangibles 2. Add back Non Controlling Interests - Don't these reflect the carrying value of investments FFH has made that are not otherwise consolidated - if so their value belongs to equity holders right?

an answer on this topic that made me chuckle - believe it was in response to being asked about enjoying what he does (paraphrasing) ”some days I have stuff to do, some days I don’t, at the least I can roll some t-bills”

It was a joke (but a not very good one)

lol i'm not tryna start a panic on cobf.

I'm sure others are seeing it as well but we had our two primary deposit banks (both top 50 regionals) offer 3%+ deposit rates this morning (from close to 0). Wouldn't ever have had concerns about the safety of these two institutions. My assumption is they're offering this to many clients to stem the fear of panic/runs and its likely most are doing this. While it doesn't allay the fear of having uninsured deposits the assumption is it helps retain deposits across the board. Either way NII is going to get demolished over the next 12 months right? I can't see the case for buying any of these with how much uncertainty there is now. Sure prices have come down but you're betting on human behavior that could end up being irrational and panicked.

here's some other stuff saluki https://www.good-investing.net/event/berkshire-hathaway-annual-shareholders-meeting-2023/ What can I do besides the Berkshire AGM 2023 in Omaha? There are plenty of exciting events you could join in Omaha. Many are free. Here we share a great selection of them: Which other investing events can I join? Various investor events will happen in the week of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting 2023. Here are some examples of events you can RSVP to: The Good Investing Events From Wednesday to Monday, we organize many community events with our community Good Investing Plus in Omaha. If you are an ambitious, passionate, and kind investor looking for an investing community to enjoy Omaha and network with global investors, please Apply here Good Investing Emerging Managers Meeting On Friday, 05 May, we invite all (soon-to-be) Emerging Managers to the Good Investing Emerging Managers Networking Meeting 2023. The casual event takes place from 3 PM to 6 PM. If you are a (soon-to-be) Emerging Fund Manager, please register here and learn more about the event in this video: Gabelli Value Investing Conference On Friday, 05 May, Gabelli invites you to the Gabelli Omaha conference. The conference takes place from 9 AM to noon. Learn more here and in this video: Willow Oak After Berkshire Meeting On Saturday, 06 May, Willow Oak Asset Management hosts an event for Emerging Managers after the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting. The After Berkshire Meeting starts at 5:30 PM. Learn more here and in this video: Markel Omaha Brunch On Sunday, from 10 AM to 12 AM, the Markel Omaha Brunch 2023 will happen. It is highly worth visiting it. Learn more here and in this video: Other interesting investing events There are also other exciting investing events: The CFA Society Nebraska is holding the Value Investing Dinner on Thursday, 04 May, from 5:30 PM. Vitaliy Katsenelson is hosting an intimate Investing Breakfast on Friday, 05 May, from 8:00 AM. The Heilbrunn Center is hosting “From Graham to Buffett and Beyond” Dinner on Friday, 05 May, from 6 PM. Dutch-speaking investors meet for drinks in Hilton Omaha (ground floor bar) on Saturday, 06 May, after the AGM. The Investor’s Podcast offers public networking events throughout the weekend. During the week, the exclusive Value Investor Conference takes place.

So it seems like the issue is depositors want insured deposits + higher rates. Banks want low cost deposits + want to avoid runs. Anyone familiar with the insured deposit sweep. Seems like it or something like it solves the problem (although at the expense of NIMs for banks) Bank has its assets. Customers has its higher yield. it’s somewhat infuriating how difficult banks have made treasury mgmt. opening a fidelity account with checking and having it sit in spaxx seems so easy that everyone should be able to do it. https://www.umb.com/institutional-banking/investor-banking-services/fdic-sweep-program

think it was the CEO of Truist Securities not the bank.

whats the thinking on procore Greg? Never looked into it but have seen it used by GC's and know it is invaluable in making the process efficient. on the face of it looks like they don't make money though - could be missing something.

pretty sure it was negative (ie. leverage).

How do you typically screen for them?

How do you screen / search for these?

Personal - down 1.4% Managed account - down 4.3%. Went mostly to cash aside from GTXAP and WHC at the end of Q3 as I'll be investing through 1 account going forward.

my layman view (no position but interested) is that the rise in rates is a headwind for everyone - the PE masters of the universe will be best positioned of everyone to snap up assets / take advantage of distressed situations. they've lived with 5% rates for much of their lives. they'll know what to do.

Ditto!!

worth taking a look at whitehaven also.

i printed this out and taped it next to my desk. well said.

Curious how different folks (if at all) measure sentiment and/if they use that in regards to positioning. I assume a lot of folks here prescribe to the mr.market theory and want to take advantage of pessimism in the market and be aware of the opposite. What is a rational and unemotional way to track that (fear/greed, dma). There is the part of me that knows it’s foolish to try and time the market and maybe I should just leave it there. But if I truly believe the mr. market theory shouldn’t I be trying to take advantage? I don’t see myself as someone who would jump significantly to cash but I’m starting to consider using limited margin when things get cheap (easy to say this in hindsight). Gets a little circular because I know there’s value in not checking prices to frequently, but if you don’t check prices often enough you’re gonna miss some of the bargains that come along. How do folks balance this? cc @Gregmal, @Viking, @thepupil, @SharperDingaan

want to see if I'm following this, if you can humor me. treasury/US gvt. is bringing in more than its making. Tax revenue is up big due to economic prosperity while gvt. spending is stable. As a result the gvt. does not need to issue as much debt - reducing the supply of money? Results could include - Stronger USD, lower gold, lower treasury rates, deflation and cooling economy - will reverse / stablize as government spending increases to counteract and tax revenues decline?

Given he typically doesn’t sell it doesn’t seem like that would be a risk? With 15b of fcf coming in just the next 12m, deleveraging and buybacks means he’ll own more without doing anything. O&g isn’t going anywhere in the next 10 years. Could have a few more years like this in that timespan. Could be his best one yet.

Good back and forth and thoughts @Gregmal and @RedLion. a lot of “if, then, buts” to consider. Varies across RE asset classes as well.

Cap rates below cost of capital (ie. Not feasible to buy multi family at a 3 cap when 10 year is 3.5) - how are folks thinking about this? @Gregmal your thoughts would be welcome. on the one hand I hear that deals will just stop happening - current cost of debt at 60%-70% LTV is > than NOI. On the other you hear rents rising by 20% so it’s not that bad on a forward cap.

@Viking how are you positioned for this?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-energy-cfe-obrador-11655000527 interesting look into Mexico’s energy sector and how amlo is screwing things up. Doesn’t seem like it will end well.

Have you looked at Capri holdings - Versace, jimmy choo, Michael kors - maybe not the pinnacle of luxury but high end brands that have shown pricing power. Screens cheap although concerns re over earning may be valid. To the extent china reopening is real they could continue to do well. Haven’t spent much time but looks fairly interesting.